Silver

Silver looks stronger than gold here, having generated an impulsive thrust on the hourly chart during holiday-hours trading on Monday. The move failed to take out the key peak at 24.485 recorded last Thursday, however, and bulls should not breathe easy until such time as that has occurred. A b-c pullback from 2-4 ticks above it could yield a 'camo' buying opportunity, but it could require a deft touch, since the peak is obviously perceived as a breakout point by many traders. Once the futures are airborne you could look for them to hit 25.270 if they get past that number's midpoint sibling, 24.615.

The chart (see inset) is equivalent to the one accompanying today's gold tout, which saw no threat in yesterday's mild selloff, only petty annoyance. Like December Gold, September Silver spent Thursday playing games with a minor midpoint support that is as yet unbroken. As is the case with gold, however, a decisive breach of the 23.748 pivot would portend a likely drop to as low as 23.080 over the near term.

The bullish pattern shown, with its 26.785 target, looks too perfect to disappoint -- especially following yesterday's thrust, which impaled a daunting midpoint pivot while also surpassing a key external high recorded back in April. A pullback to the 24.533 midpoint should be viewed as an opportunity to get aboard belatedly.  'Camouflage' entry is suggested, however, since we've seen in yesterday's decapitation of Silver Wheaton what can happen when bulls get giddy.

The bullish impulse leg created by tonight's rally is somewhat more powerful than the corresponding one in gold, since it surpassed a more ambitious external peak without a pullback.  Even so, for purposes of finding an entry spot, we should play it conservatively, using the so-far stubby A-B leg (see inset) to generate an entry signal, a p resistance and D target. As I've suggested in gold, your actual entry should be made on a chart of 5-minute degree or less. I've sketched a hypothetical opportunity that conforms with this suggestion for your further guidance.

The resemblance of yesterday's bullish spike to the picture I'd sketched out hypothetically on a chart was striking -- and quite bullish, as the tout itself will have made clear. There has been no correction so far, and it's possible the impulse leg will eclipse yet another 'external' peak or two before bulls take a rest. For now, I'll suggest kicking back and enjoying this effusion, since boarding at these heights is going to be diabolically tricky at best.  If the rally retraces 50% of the nasty decline from October's 35.445, the futures are bound for at least 26.815.

The futures will need only a modest push to get past the key external peak at 22.525 shown in the chart. That would create a quite powerful impulse leg not only on the intraday charts, but on the 'daily' as well.  It would also blow past a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 22.220, further corroborating a picture of waxing strength.

The futures look poised for an 80-cent leap Sunday night (see inset).  At present they are trading just beneath the 20.005 midpoint resistance associated with a D target at 20.795. If it is decisively penetrated, a move to 'D', at least, would become an odds-on bet.

The futures have tiptoed up to the 19.458 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown, and if they get past it -- the more easily, the better -- a further run-up to at least 20.245 over the very near-term would become an odds-on bet. It would also refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the intraday charts, since some external peaks to the left will have been exceeded in the process.  Camouflageurs should look to limit entry risk to no more than $30-40 per contract, implying that you'll need to zoom down to the 3-minute chart or less. _____ UPDATE (8:45 p.m.): Buyers punched past our bullish benchmark with a dime to spare before retreating into a shallow pullback. The thrust left an impulse leg that was still intact as of Tuesday night, but it would be negated by a drop below 19.035 (aka point 'C'). Thereafter, it would take an uncorrected rally exceeding 19.590 for bulls to get something going again. The relevant peak is shown in the chart, a fresh one. ________ UPDATE (July 11, 1:35 a.m.): Yesterday's rally was solidly impulsive, surpassing several prior peaks on the 240-minute chart where real rallies begin. The move also left some obvious 'priors' unscathed, opening the door to a possible 'camo' trade entry if the rally pulls back without having gotten past them.  I've sketched this hypothetically in the chart, a new one, for your guidance. _______ UPDATE (8:54 p.m. EDT): At the intraday high, Thursday's rally kissed the 20.240 target of the pattern shown. If the next thrust comes as an extension of the smaller pattern at the chart's right-hand edge (purple coordinates), it'll hit 20.950 (subject to a midpoint impediment at 20.355.  Camouflageurs may want to note the very delicate and potentially useful external peak at 20.295. _______ UPDATE (July

A possible finale to the steep plunge predicted here nearly two months ago, when the futures were trading more than $3 higher, came with 19 cents of the 18.115 target this morning.  However, based on a closer look at the chart shown, I am revising the target downward to 17.885.  This looks like a promising spot to try bottom-fishing, and so I'll suggest doing so via camouflage on a chart of 5-minute degree or less.  You should start looking for the opportunity when July Silver gets within 3 cents of the target. ______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:15 a.m. EDT): The 10% rally from Friday's lows may seem impressive, and we should certainly be encouraged. However, take another look at the chart accompanying my original tout and you'll see that the 17.885 target given above still looks quite compelling if not inevitable. Short-term, however, a thrust exceeding June 23's 20.175 peak would be bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, implying that any subsequent pullback could set up a camo buying opportunity.