Silver

The pattern shown speaks with such authority that we should be wary of putting its 18.62 target entirely out of mind. What makes it so compelling is the un-sausagey point B, which by definition exceeded the key external low at 26.950.  Concerning a reprieve, I'd view an impulsive upthrust exceeding 24.900, an April 15 peak 'along the wall' as speculative evidence that bulls are capable of turning the tide.  Traders will find 'external' peaks galore for camouflage entries on the hourly chart, but at the moment, this chart shows only a tedious stalemate between bulls and bears.

The 1350.50 correction target I've flagged in June Gold -- a Hidden Pivot midpoint support -- has an equivalent at 21.360 in July Silver.  A rally above the 24.835 point 'C' of  the pattern would pre-empt that target, but until such time as that occurs, 21.360 makes a logical minimum downside objective for the near term. Alternatively, bulls would seize the edge for the near-term if they can rally above 24.345 today. That would open a path to 25.440, a D Hidden Pivot tied to midpoint resistance at 24.325.

With June Gold breaking loose for some yardage tonight, we'll give Silver the benefit of the doubt and put aside some horrific long-term targets for the moment. Assuming the sideways action of the last week is a consolidation, the 24.360 target shown can be used as a minimum upside target for the near-term.

May Silver looks bound for a minimum 25.460, or 24.925 if any lower.  These projections aren't rocket science, since the patterns I've used (bracketing two pairs of AB coordinates) to project the targets look too clear and compelling to be mistaken. ________ UPDATE (April 15, 12:20 a.m. EDT):  A powerful wave of selling Sunday night has pushed the futures down to a so far low of 24.080, bringing into play the 21.647 target shown. If it gives way, the lower B-C pair (26.419/35.300) would yield a worst-case bear-market low of 18.599.

Back by (inexplicable) request today is Comex Silver. It has been in a really tedious dirge for a month (see chart), and so you can probably understand why I haven't had much to say about it. (Tracking gold's seemingly endless wallow has been taxing enough.) That said, I'll mention a 27.815 target that can be used a minimum downside objective for the near term.  Alternatively, if bulls are going to regain their mojo, it'll take a pop above the external peak at 29.280.  A 'b-c' pullback from 2-3 ticks above this number could yield the best buying opportunity we've seen in this vehicle in a while. _______ UPDATE (7:56 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday's blast easily vaulted 29.280, setting up an appealing camouflage opportunity.  Traders should use the pattern shown to get aboard once a point C is in.  _______ UPDATE (March 25): As we might have expected, Silver has settled back into the shallow rut that has asphxiated price movement for more than a month. I am dropping coverage of this dog until it either break down or impulses above the 29.670 'external' peak recorded on February 19.

Silver looks ready to pull gold higher, and it wouldn't take much to turn the intraday charts quite bullish. Notice in the chart that there are three peaks within 80 cents of current levels, two of them legitimate 'externals'.  I've set an alert at 32.800, a tick above the highest of the three, and it would be more than a little encouraging if it gets hit within the next day or two by an uncorrected upthrust.

A pattern similar to the one driving Feb Gold right now has the potential to power this vehicle to the 32.550 target shown over the near term -- or even to 32.795 if it's exceeded. For purposes of getting long, camouflageurs will have to show ingenuity, since easy opportunities on the lesser charts were close to exhausting themselves shortly after midnght EST.

A bearish impulse leg on the daily chart that was followed by a downside breach of a midpoint support at 29.415 (see inset) has put the burden of proof on bulls. They could recover the high ground with an unbroken thrust exceeding peak #1, a true 'external' (31.535, from daily on January 2) ; and #2, an ersatz peak (at 32.600, daily chart, on December 18) will do for our purposes.  Otherwise, the bearish, 27.295 target will remain theoretically valid.

Over the last week or so, the futures have bounced feebly off the 29.770 downside target shown.  Because the target was exceeded by four cents, lower lows are likely. Under the circumstances, we should require a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart before waxing bullish. In practice, this means a rally exceeding at least one internal, and one external, peak on the hourly chart without a b-c correction. In fact, the closest external peak lies at 31.275, fully 85 cents above current levels. Practically speaking, an unbroken rally leg of that magnitude on the hourly chart is extremely unlikely. Stranger things have happened, but for the time being the burden of proof will continue to rest with bulls.