Silver

Silver's rally early Monday morning is a clone of the pattern I'd suggested using to get long on Friday. (Note: The trade failed to trigger, even on the one-minute chart.) Considering the effort it required to track and revise that dud, I'll avoid this opportunity like the plague.  However, for those who are equipped with "camouflage" tools and a hazmat suit, I'll mention that the little nubbin at 33.430 highlighted in the chart could be used to leverage a bull trade with relatively little risk. Keep in mind, though, that although it can be satisfying to pare risk to relative nickels and dimes, the primary objective is to make money.  In that regard, the odds are not especially encouraging for a bull trade here, since the larger pattern from which we would be extrapolating it is just "dueling" impulse legs on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (December 11, 1:53 a.m. EST): A feint above 33.430 did indeed produce a tradable ABCD pattern with a halfway decent 'camo' entry opportunity, but the C-D follow-through leg would have been good for a ride no higher than 33.495 before Silver relapsed.

It's bullish that the futures reversed strongly enough yesterday to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart without have reached the 32.115 downside target flagged here. Moreover, the rally is just shy of triggering a buy signal at 33.180. If that price is hit today, I'd suggest using an ABCD pattern on the one-minute chart to get aboard via camouflage.  This set-up looks quite promising in that it seems likely to lift the nimble camouflageur at least to the 'p' midpoint of the traded pattern.  Night owls will need to be alert, however, since the opportunity could come before morning. _______ UPDATE (2:20 a.m. EST): The futures first touched 33.180 exactly two hours and 42 minutes ago, but they are only now generating the first tradable 'camouflage' pattern with the potential to conform to our rules. On the three-minute chart, here are the coordinates you might use to get long: A=33.110 at 2:03 a.m.; B=33.150 at 2:12 a.m.; and C=?  So far, at exactly 2:21:46, C is a double-bar low at 33.120, making the pattern untradable if played strictly by-the-book.  If you can follow this update up to this point, you don't need me to tell you what to do. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (2:26 a.m. EST): The futures seem heavy, and not just a little nasty. Under the circumstances, you should initiate the trade using camouflage only if all of our rules are perfectly met. As of 2:51 a.m., that would imply a rally on the 3-minute that is unpaused between 31.150 and 33.205.  These prices points correspond to 'external' peaks. Click here if you want to learn more about ‘camouflage’ trading, a technique developed to reduce entry risk very significantly.

The modest promise of the short-term chart displayed here the other day has given way to a more tired reality, and so it's appropriate to look at a bigger picture that shows what has been weighing Silver down. Notice that yesterday's swoon breached the midpoint support of a very clear bearish pattern that projects to at least 32.115. That Hidden Pivot is my minimum downside projection for the near term, and because it closely coincides with a low recorded in mid-November, you'll need to use 'camouflage' if you attempt bottom-fishing there, as I am suggesting.

Bullion has been in a tedious dirge for too long, but you didn't subscribe to Rick's Picks just to have me sugar-coat the forecast for you, right?  Under the circumstances, modest encouragement is about all I can offer at the moment in the form of the green impulse leg I've highlighted in the chart. It recently gave way to a bearish impulse leg of lesser degree, turning the short-term picture into a "duel."  Still, the bullish leg remains the stronger of the two, and that's why we can give bulls the small benefit of the doubt for the time being.  If they can get traction today or tomorrow, the Hidden Pivot coordinates I've placed on the chart can serve to guide you.  Remember that a two-day close above 'p' would imply there's an odds-on chance that 'D' (34.71, not shown)  will be reached.  It’s easier than you might imagine to out-forecast gurus who do it for a living. Click here for a free trial.

The Comex chart looks somewhat stronger than Silver Wheaton's, and so we should wait before throwing in the towel as we've done in the stock.  It would take but an 80-cent rally to generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart (see inset), but that might be asking too much at the moment, since the duel between bulls and bears has definitely tipped in the latters' favor since early October.

The futures have pulled back to within a nickel of the small-pattern, 33.580 midpoint shown in the chart, but if they should retest the v-bottom low it would be an excellent opportunity for camouflageurs to jump aboard.  Upside potential over the near term would be to the 36.250 target of the larger pattern shown.  If the futures continue higher with no pullback,  the big-pattern 'p' entry point, a pullback from above which camo traders might attempt a belated entry, lies at 34.380.

Silver's strong action since August 20 has it aiming for a target at 33.625, and probably higher.  The precious metals were fairly quiet on Tuesday, with no new patterns of significance emerging in either silver or gold.  The silver pattern that we are looking at here is similar but not exactly analogous to the one we described yesterday for the gold market, since the 'A' points are different.  This is a judgment call prompted by the size of silver's BC pullback, which was much shallower than gold's.  Shorting this market will be treacherous, but intrepid silver traders (is there any other kind?) might try it with a tight order pair around the target.  The stop should be no lower than 33.660.  (Posted by Doug “harry” McLagan)

September Silver has yet to correct after ripping through a gaggle of prior peaks, two of them legitimate 'externals' on the 480-minute chart (see inset).  Entry opportunities will exist only for the quick, the bold or for camouflageurs, but all should be wary of the correction that could come at any time. My hunch is that it will be vicious but fleeting, and so you should pay attention to any p or d supports that come into play in the retracement. Please note that when trading vehicles move as swiftly as this one, Hidden Pivot swing points tend to work with even greater precision than we are used to.  _______ UPDATE (Sunday, August 26, 2:58 p.m. EDT): Friday's feint lower set up a push to, most immediately, 30.840 (30m, A=30.405 at 11:30 a.m. on 8/24); or if any higher, to the 30.880 target of a larger pattern begun from 30.100 on 8/23. As always, an easy move through either of these Hidden Pivot resistance points would portend still-higher prices.

September Silver is flirting with a potent, bullish trigger in the form of the 28.080 midpoint pivot of the small pattern shown.  A near-miss is as good as a mile, and so we'll stipulate that the futures must close above it before we infer that the rally will complete to 28.470, its 'D' sibling. The larger ABC pattern yields a somewhat higher target at 28.640, and although the 27.760 midpoint with which it is associated has already been exceeded on a closing basis, the heaviness of this vehicle since then has placed the burden of proof on bulls for the time being. You can learn how to do this stuff yourself — and more easily than you might imagine.  Click here for a free trial subscription.