Silver

September Silver looks positively leaden, with an ostensible C-D follow-through leg that has been meandering across the hourly chart for nearly a month.  If it breaks out, Gold will be pulling it, but camouflageurs can nonetheless use the bullish impulsiveness of the pattern I've highlighted to get long. A timed buy-stop would be the next best way to do it, and your odds will probably be most favorable late at night, when a lack of liquidity could conceivably help this vehicle get from 'X' to 'p' quickly.

Silver is somewhat lagging Gold, which has turned rambunctious early Wednesday morning.  Regardless, your best opportunity to get long could come following a B-C pullback from just above the 27.085 'external' peak shown.  You may not have much time to squeeze off the shot, but that's the point: The more quickly the opportunity passes, the more likely it will be to produce a winning trade.  A 'timed buy-stop' entry is probably the only way to go, so this trade is for the nimble only.

A precise stall at the midpoint has validated the bullish pattern shown, but the futures will need to rip through it on the next thrust to become an odds-on shot of reaching its 'D' sibling at 28.765.  That would be quite a rally, but it would also generate a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart, promising more of the same. Accordingly, I've set a screen alert at 28.745, since this is one very bullish signal I do not want to miss.

Yesterday's tortuous rally died in a suspicious place, a single tick below an 'external' peak so subtle that it doesn't even display as one on the five-minute chart (see inset). Under the circumstances, although I'm looking for a bullish ride in Gold at the moment, I'd suggest keeping your distance from this vehicle today.  For camouflageurs, this one looks like an expert slope to me, with slightly better odds trading from the short side.

The rally begun in late June looked promising at first, since it visibly interrupted the long dirge from February's 37.450 high. However, last week's selloff suggests that bulls are too tired at the moment to do much more than hold their own.  Although the duel in evidence (see inset) may keep the futures from flirting with the recent low at 26.150, bulls will need to push this vehicle above June 20's 26.650 peak this week to suggest they are capable of a sustained move.

The stop-loss I'd recommended would have taken you out of the last of four contracts near 28.065 in thin markets on July 4.  Our paper profit on the trade was about $4300 if you impute to it hypothetical gains on three contracts exited earlier.  If you used a wider stop-loss and are still in the position swinging for the fences, there's immediate upside potential to 28.995, a Hidden Pivot target proffered here earlier.

Early Tuesday morning, Silver futures were out-frolicking Gold. While the latter had precisely achieved a minor rally target at 1607.00, the former was trading 17 cents above an equivalent resistance at 27.745 and seemingly game for more. Assuming this is prelude to a robust second thrust, we should use the 28.995 target of the pattern shown as a minimum upside projection for the near term. That would well exceed the 28.650 threshold I mentioned here yesterday as a bullish trigger point. For purposes of getting long, camouflageurs should focus on the two small external peaks that I've labeled in the chart. Between them lies the 28.090 midpoint resistance of the pattern targeting 28.995, and any B-C pullback from within that narrow range would be of the subtle kind that often brings us the best opportunities. _______ UPDATE (9:39 a.m. EDT): The pattern played out BEAUTIFULLY, with a picture-perfect, single-bar B-C pullback from 28.050  to 27.820. Since A=27.390 (10 p.m. Monday), we have a minor rally target at 28.480 in play as of around 9:40 a.m. versus a so-far high of 28.190.  If you caught a ride, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (9:59 a.m. EDT): Assuming four contracts purchased near 27.985, you should take profits on half the position at current levels of around 28.230. Set a stop-loss at 28.065, o-c-o with a closing offer on a single contract at 28.310. An exit at 28.220 would give us a theoretical profit of  23.5 cents that, when imputed to the two contracts remaining, effectively lowers their cost basis to 27.750. _______ UPDATE (11:42 a.m. EDT): Based on a so-far high at 28.400, three-quarters of the original position should have been exited by now.  The

Pivoteers can refer to today's gold  chart for trading ideas, since the upthrust from Thursday's lows is technically identical to gold's and looks robust enough to produce a follow-through rally.  However, it will take a push exceeding the 28.650 'external' peak shown to put bulls back on the offensive.

It's back to reality following yesterday's contrarian, benefit-of-the-doubt tout. Reality in this case takes the form of two Hidden Pivots shown in the 240-minute chart (inset).  The downside target of the larger pattern is 25.230, and it is probably magnetic by now.  Just above it sits the 25.505 target of the lesser pattern, and if it is breached the fall to the lower number would likely be swift.  Bottom-fish at either number if you are able to limit theoretical risk to $70 or less per contract, presumably via camouflage. If any fills are reported in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position for your further guidance.