SIU12 – September Silver (Last:28.150)

Early Tuesday morning, Silver futures were out-frolicking Gold. While the latter had precisely achieved a minor rally target at 1607.00, the former was trading 17 cents above an equivalent resistance at 27.745 and seemingly game for more. Assuming this is prelude to a robust second thrust, we should use the 28.995 target of the pattern shown as a minimum upside projection for the near term. That would well exceed the 28.650 threshold I mentioned here yesterday as a bullish trigger point. For purposes of getting long, camouflageurs should focus on the two small external peaks that I’ve labeled in the chart. Between them lies the 28.090 midpoint resistance of the pattern targeting 28.995, and any B-C pullback from within that narrow range would be of the subtle kind that often brings us the best opportunities. _______ UPDATE (9:39 a.m. EDT): The pattern played out BEAUTIFULLY, with a picture-perfect, single-bar B-C pullback from 28.050  to 27.820. Since A=27.390 (10 p.m. Monday), we have a minor rally target at 28.480 in play as of around 9:40 a.m. versus a so-far high of 28.190.  If you caught a ride, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (9:59 a.m. EDT): Assuming four contracts purchased near 27.985, you should take profits on half the position at current levels of around 28.230. Set a stop-loss at 28.065, o-c-o with a closing offer on a single contract at 28.310. An exit at 28.220 would give us a theoretical profit of  23.5 cents that, when imputed to the two contracts remaining, effectively lowers their cost basis to 27.750. _______ UPDATE (11:42 a.m. EDT): Based on a so-far high at 28.400, three-quarters of the original position should have been exited by now.  The effective costs basis of what remains, reduced by theoretical profits, would be 27.190.  A stop-loss at 28.065 should be used for now as we plan to swing for the fences on this trade.