Silver

July Silver continues to hang on for dear life, having come within a single penny of the watershed low at 26.500 recorded on the penultimate trading say of 2011. If and when it is breached -- and it appears to be only a matter of time before this occurs -- the 25.230 'D' target of the pattern shown would become an odds-on bet.

Silver did what we asked of it yesterday, surpassing an 'external' peak at 27.005 to generate a little bit of heat on the lesser charts. However, just to make sure it's not playing us, let's raise the bar today to 27.980, where bulls would effectively refresh the impulsive energy of the hourly chart (as they should if this rally is fated to go anywhere). Strictly speaking, they deserve the benefit of the doubt anyway, since Monday's thrust exceeded no fewer than one internal peak and three closely spaced externals. Also strictly speaking, the July contract would trip a buy signal on any booster-stage rally of at least 24.125 cents from an as-yet-unformed point 'C' low.

Silver is closer than Gold to breaching several key lows that go back to January 2011.  The breach seems inevitable at this point, and if it occurs we should expect a running of stops that would result in more than a merely marginal penetration of the lowest of them, 26.200, recorded in September of 2011.  Thereafter, a powerful rally could ensue, since Silver futures would have been unburdened by then of many despairing, would-be profit-takers.  Prospectively, and from whatever low is forthcoming, an unpaused rally would need to hit 31.475 to create the kind of bullish impulse leg on the daily chart that could get legs. _______ UPDATE (June 25, 3:05 a.m. EDT):  It'll take a very modest rally to 27.010 to generate some bullish heat on the lesser charts.  That's a tick above a look-to-the-left 'external' peak from last Thursday, and a move that gets there and then pulls back in b-c fashion could set up a low-risk entry opportunity for camouflageurs.

Just a scoach more and the futures will have achieved an unimportant downside target at 27.330 that has been nearly two weeks in coming. That would leave them just above a key external low at 27.170 recorded on June 1 that must not give way if bulls are going to stand a chance of making June a comeback month in the seven trading days that remain. Alternatively, they would need to muster a thrust to at least 29.015 straightaway to generate a pulse on the hourly chart.

Use the 27.330 downside target shown (erroneously given here yesterday as 27.530) as a minimum price objective for the near term. It would become an odds-on bet if the 28.210 midpoint pivot with which it is associated is exceeded on a closing basis. Alternatively, bulls would need to muster 30.130, topping a tiny 'external' peak from May 7, to reverse the tide.  More subtly, though perhaps less reliably, they could get back in the game with a close above 29.260 (per yesterday's analysis).

No change. Silver doesn’t look quite as punk as Gold at the moment, but neither does it look capable of the burst it will take to vault the 29.260 midpoint resistance shown.  Once that Hidden Pivot is breached to the upside on a closing basis, its 30.605 sibling will become no worse than an even-odds bet.  Alternatively, a bearish target at 27.530 will remain in play (60m, A=29.675 on 6/7), predicated on a close beneath its p sibling at 28.310.

Silver doesn't look quite as punk as Gold at the moment, but neither does it look capable of the burst it will take to vault the 29.260 midpoint resistance shown.  Once that Hidden Pivot is breached to the upside on a closing basis, its 30.605 sibling will become no worse than an even-odds bet.  Alternatively, a bearish target at 27.530 will remain in play (60m, A=29.675 on 6/7), predicated on a close beneath its p sibling at 28.310.

Assuming the point 'C' high survives the night, traders could bottom-fish at the 28.260 midpoint support of the pattern shown using a stop-loss as tight as three ticks (although camouflage would be the preferred way to board).  Keep in mind that a larger, bearish pattern (30-minute, A=29.640 on June 7) projects to as low as 27.365, subject to a test of its midpoint sibling at 28.230. A bounce precisely from that last number would confirm the 'D' target, and a close below it would imply it's likely to be achieved.

New life for bulls seems remote at the moment, since the July contract would have to climb all the way to 31.470 to challenge an 'external' peak on the daily chart. More immediately, the futures remain in a duel that suggests no quick end to the tedium that has characterized price action since mid-May. The somewhat gnarly pattern shown implies that the next thrust could reach 30.605, but the futures will first have to overcome the midpoint resistance at 29.260.  If this Hidden Pivot is surpassed, camouflageurs should seize the advantage by buy-stopping themselves into a long position at the first available 'X' of minor degree on charts of 5-minute degree or lower.