SIN12 – July Silver (Last:26.985)

Silver is closer than Gold to breaching several key lows that go back to January 2011.  The breach seems inevitable at this point, and if it occurs we should expect a running of stops that would result in more than a merely marginal penetration of the lowest of them, 26.200, recorded in September of 2011.  Thereafter, a powerful rally could ensue, since Silver futures would have been unburdened by then of many despairing, would-be profit-takers.  Prospectively, and from whatever low is forthcoming, an unpaused rally would need to hit 31.475 to create the kind of bullish impulse leg on the daily chart that could get legs. _______ UPDATE (June 25, 3:05 a.m. EDT):  It’ll take a very modest rally to 27.010 to generate some bullish heat on the lesser charts.  That’s a tick above a look-to-the-left ‘external’ peak from last Thursday, and a move that gets there and then pulls back in b-c fashion could set up a low-risk entry opportunity for camouflageurs.