Silver

While December Gold's weekly chart shows a 'duel' between bulls and bears, Silver's remains bullish without qualification, since it lacks the bearish impulse leg (B=1251.00 on 10/18) that has put Gold's price action mildly in conflict.  However, Silver's daily chart daily has yet to generate a bullish impulse leg since the December contract fulfilled the 20.420 target shown in October.  That would require a thrust exceeding  the 23.445 'external' peak shown, but until it happens the burden of proof will remain on bulls. _______  UPDATE (12:36 a.m. EST): I've just posted the following, bearish analysis in the chat room: Price action at p=20.875 most probably has bearish implications going forward. However, there are two alternative points 'A' that would have less dire consequences: A=23.445 yields D=20.145. This target looks like a very high-probability spot for a tradable upturn in view of the heavy action near p=21.620. Then there's A=24.250, yielding D=19.340. The 21.218 midpoint associated with this target was decisively broken on this morning's opening bar, and the feeble rally back up to this number produced a short that is nicely profitable. All in all, Silver looks like hell.

Until Wednesday afternoon, Silver had been hanging tough for more than a week. Now, however, with an impulsive dive to end the day, the December contract bids fair to shatter bulls' complacency.  The 22.180 downside target shown seems all but certain at this point to be hit, given bulls' losing battle at the 22.473 midpoint. More troubling for the near-term is the implication that a fall to the target would surpass two 'external' lows, refreshing the bearish energy of the chart.

The futures easily exceeded our rally target at 22.765 before pulling back to end the week. The retracement  should be viewed as a healthy correction, since it was preceded by an impulsive thrust that exceeded a small but important 'external' peak recorded September 20 with Silver in the throes of a steep decline.  Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on the 23.075 peak-let above it, or the next at 23.180, since each has the potential to create a subtle impulse leg and b-c pullback, and therefore an excellent camouflage buying set-up. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 10:12 p.m. EDT):  No change. Silver has weathered a squall somewhat better than gold and looks well poised for an upthrust from the consolidation pattern that has traced out over the last week.

A predicted rally to at least 22.765 has died in the stretch after having gotten no higher than 22.525.  Bulls nevertheless still hold a tenuous edge on the hourly chart, and that's where I'd suggest you look if you're keen on bottom-fishing.  A trade from the p midpoint will require camouflage because of its very close proximity to a prior low, but you may be able to get away with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks with a straight bid at D. _______ UPDATE (12:30 p.m. EDT):  The actual low occurred 2 cents beneath the 21.735 'p' support shown. Using the 1-minute chart, the first attractive 'camouflage' entry signal came at 21.790 (5:28 a.m.), and a second at 21.850 (5:58 a.m.) Both worked, although the second took its sweet old time getting airborne.  ______ UPDATE (October 11, 11:25 a.m. EDT):  With today's plunge, the immediate outlook has taken a serious turn for the worse.  My minimum downside target is now below $20 -- 19.710 to be precise. As you can see in the chart (a new one), the breach of the midpoint was brutal and decisive, shortening the odds that the 19.710 'D' target with which it is associated will indeed be achieved. ________ UPDATE (October 17, 11:11 a.m. EDT): Not to be a party pooper, but what I'm noticing about this morning's short squeeze rally is that it didn't have the guts to take on the 22.250 'external' peak recorded on the hourly chart October 10 on the way down. Anyway, if you're looking to board this train via camouflage, you should use that peak as a 'hook', since any b-c pullback from a few pennies above it would be easily tradable. ________ UPDATE (October 20, 8:40 p.m.): Buyers hung tough on Friday, allowing only a shallow correction

Unlike Gold, December Silver eked out a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chat with yesterday's strong rebound. Because the high of the move did not break out above a series of peaks recorded over the last two weeks, it should be regarded as the opportune point 'B' of a tradable rally pattern. It may take a couple of point 'C' lows before the futures embark on a sustained follow-through leg, however, and traders should therefore use camouflage to initiate a buy. An alternative would be to simply wait for a second point 'C' to form before you pounce, but this approach would risk missing the trade if Silver takes off without a protracted consolidation. _______ UPDATE (October 4, 2:20 a.m. EDT):  Subscribers tuned to the chat room around mid-day could have caught a short, profitable ride using the price coordinates I posted at that time.  The futures hit a minor target then stalled out, leaving a moderately bullish picture when the day ended. Immediate upside potential is to 22.450, the D target associated with A=21.035 at 4 a.m. on 10/2, so your bias should be bullish at the outset. ________ UPDATE (October 8, 12:36 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's blast overshot my target by nearly a nickel, implying that higher prices are on the way.  Based on price action at the midpoint resistance, you should regard the 22.765 target shown (a new one, along with a new chart) not only as a minimum price objective for the near term, but one that is extremely likely to be reached.

Technically speaking, silver's vital signs look somewhat more promising than gold's at the moment, but it will still take a 'booster' rally of at least 1.50 to end the  dominance of bears that has obtained since late August.  Assuming last week's 21.225 low survives, that would imply a print at 22.729. That number can be used as an entry trigger, but the actual trade should be done camouflage-style on a chart of three-minute degree or less. ______ UPDATE (September 30): Six straight days of asphyxiating tedium have not altered my outlook.

Just a little more oomph is needed to generate an impulse leg worthy of the name on December Silver's 240-minute chart. As you can see, the apex of yesterday's moon shot narrowly missed exceeding a key 'external' peak at 23.265. In the meantime, the ABC overlay shows potential to as high as 27.2450 in the weeks ahead. The midpoint resistance at 24.233 will pose a daunting test along the way, but in the meantime, traders will need to pay close attention to the relatively few unspent 'external' peaks that will be available to us for purposes of lowering entry risk on 'camouflage' trades.

The decisive breach yesterday of a compelling midpoint support at 21.568 (see inset) implies that the futures will now fall to at least 20.645 in search of traction. The selloff also took out last Friday's 21.420 low, and although it's an important and obvious one, there may be enough subtlety in the retracement to set up an attractive 'camo' short. For its part, December Gold was meandering early Wednesday morning --too feeble, perhaps, to resist the downward pull of this vehicle.

Silver's pluck has matched Gold's Sunday night, resulting in a promising bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. It may be a little too promising, however, especially for those who are frustrated over having missed buying near Friday's bargain-basement lows. Under the circumstances, the advice I offered to gold traders -- wait for a second point C=22.020 to form before you dive in -- applies. However, skillful camouflageurs can test the water cautiously if the 22.233 entry trigger associated with the existing, tentative c=22.020 is hit. (Unlike in December Gold, that has yet to occur in this vehicle.) _______ UPDATE (September 17): Yesterday's choppy selloff did little technical damage to the still-bullish hourly chart (see inset), but buyers will need to exercise extra caution getting aboard, since new point 'C' lows have been turning up with vexatious frequency.  Camouflageurs should note that, as of around 11:40 p.m. EDT Monday, the futures were on a buy signal from 21.898. Look for your entry trigger on charts of 1-minute degree, since there were some potentially attractive set-ups developing therein shortly before midnight. The relevant 'external' peaks lay, respectively, at 21.980 (10:49 p.m.) and 21.970.