Silver

Bulls and bears were in a minor skirmish late Monday night, but we'll be better able to judge which is getting the better of the other by monitoring the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the minor corrective pattern shown. An easy move through it would portend likely weakness, or at least softness, on Tuesday. Even so, camouflageurs should plan on bottom-fishing there, using the 3- or 5-minute chart to spot the first uptrending ABC uptrend that triggers a long entry meeting our criteria.

Like Gold futures, July Silver was breathing hard Sunday night after failing to reach the 'D' target of a minor pattern.  In this case, though, there was an excuse -- that just above the so far high lies a daunting peak to the left at 29.100. Rather than speculate as to what may occur next, will let this vehicle do the talking. If it's sufficiently rested for a push toward $30, buyers should be able to get past peak #1 (i.e., 29.100) today with little trouble.

After staring into the abyss earlier this week, Silver has pivoted and turned higher, etching fresh impulse legs on the lesser charts with each new minor thrust. This is a healthy sign, but a demonstration of real vigor would require a push today exceeding the two peaks I've labeled in the chart. So far, as of around 2:33 a.m. EDT, the futures were stalled two cents shy of the 28.190 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown. A move through it would portend more upside to its 'D' sibling, 28.595. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.

Gold and Silver turned up sharply on Thursday, and although I am skeptical, we'll go with the flow as always.  (Our straddle in GDXJ gives us upside exposure, although premium erosion will be a concern going forward.)  I am about to head over to the CMRE conference and will report on it later.  Also trying to get the hang of East Coast time, adjusting to the fact that it is late afternoon and the markets are still bubbling away. ______ OVERNIGHT UPDATE (1:46 a.m. EDT):  A more-than-300-point drop in the Dow is implied by Friday's tout for the E-Mini S&Ps. I've included a chart so that you can judge for yourself the seriousness of the selling.

Yesterday's trampoline bounce came from within less than three cents of the 26.705 worst-case target I'd flagged, so we should regard it as fulfilled. Unfortunately, robust as the rally may seem, it has yet to achieve impulsiveness even on the lowly 15-minute chart. We'll give buyers the benefit of the doubt nonetheless as we've done in Gold, but they'll have to push the futures above the 28.155 peak labeled in the chart to earn our further favor.  Camouflageurs looking to get long at that point should infer opportunity from any 'b-c' pullback that begins from between peaks #1 and #2.

The June contract was frolicking at cliff's edge, here the 27.590 'D' support of the pattern shown.  A breakdown would portend more weakness to as low as 26.705, the target derived from A2. If we take just the last piece of the downtrend, starting with 29.900 from 5/13 as 'A' (60m), then an additional support at 27.330 becomes manifest.  As always, a breach of any Hidden Pivot support implies more downside to the next.

A clear and compelling target at 28.100 held for all of five hours after being marginally penetrated earlier in the day.  This is bearish going forward and implies that any bottom-fishing must be done via camouflage, since our goal whenever we trade this vehicle is to hold theoretical risk at entry to $70 or less per contract. Night owls can attempt a scalp-trade entry at the 28.045 target of the minor pattern shown. A somewhat larger pattern (180m, A=30.390 on 5/7) augurs success bidding near 27.680.  If that Hidden Pivot fails as well, however, the next place where we might look for a turn is from 26.980 (480m, A=34.480, B=29.990).  Alternatively, buyers would need to drive this vehicle above 29.455 to get something serious going.

July Silver's breach of a clear and compelling target at 28.100 was not a good sign.  I've nonetheless provided a sequence of targets in Silver than can be used to detect a possible bullish turn. In any case, December's watershed low at 26.500 will turn magnetic by such time as Silver futures have achieved the lowermost of my immediate targets.

There’s no point in pretending it’s those sleazy, child-molesting bullion bankers at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and  J.P. Morgan who have been pounding on mining stocks and bullion futures in the last few months.  Lately, it has felt like the whole world has been dumping them.  For the record, we are ourselves cautious buyers of bullion futures and select mining stocks at these levels, since many popular trading and investment vehicles that we track are closing on important Hidden Pivot correction targets. (Want to find out the exact prices at which were are doing the buying? Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick’s Picks, including real-time guidance and a 24/7 chat room where the discussion never stops.) When bottom-fishing in markets that have been falling as steeply as gold and silver have been falling, we recall the advice of our friend, the late Malcolm Watts: “When attempting to catch a falling piano,” Malcolm, a PSE option trader and gifted technician, used to say, “wait until it has bounced three times.” (It was not a falling piano that felled our friend when he was in his thirties, by the way, but the stresses of the market on an apparently defective heart.)  So, have bullion futures bounced the required three times yet? By our count, there have been more like four bounces since February. And although that may not mean it’s perfectly safe to buy the precious-metals complex at current levels, it does imply that those who waited are happy they did. By and large, however, precious-metal bulls are probably feeling shell-shocked by now, since many of the stocks that they hold dear  – quality companies like Silver Wheaton, Newmont and Yamana – have been sold nearly to death.  The shares of these firms and many others looked like great