Silver

The thumbnail chart shown is one we pored over during yesterday's tutorial session.  The key price points to watch are 30.145, a midpoint support that can serve as a minimum downside target for the near term; and its 'D' sibling, 28.810.  Both look like  high-odds numbers that will be reached precisely, which is good for trading purposes. The bad news, however, is that a fall to the lower pivot would take quite a toll on precious-metal  bulls.  Most immediately, buyers will need to push the June contract above 30.625 today to go on the offensive. However, it would take nothing less than a close above 30.845 to set up a rally into week's end.  Both numbers are 'external' peaks easily found on the 10-minute chart.

Silver had better get traction here, leveraging a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart begun from the April 25 low -- or else. As you can see in the chart, the logical alternative would be a fall to at least 28.810, a compelling  correction target I am introducing in conjunction with our first look at the July contract.

Silver's rally from last week's low has been tentative so far, although its heart would appear to be in the right place because the move began from within three ticks of a 29.940 Hidden Pivot target pre-advertised here. What it needs now is an unpaused thrust that takes out the two labeled peaks, since that would generate a bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. Using the far less ambitious standard of the 15-minute chart, buyers would still need to push this vehicle above 31.215 today to generate even a faint spark.

The picture-perfect 'camo' pattern shown in the chart signaled a long entry at 31.235 for Pivoteers who were on the alert Friday morning. Since my tout was not likely sufficiently explicit to have done much more than pique your interest, however, I won't be establishing a tracking position. (Also, as a practical matter, a 'camo' entry on a pattern of this size would have entailed initial risk of $500 per contract. Lowering theoretical risk to our rules-based threshold of $70 (or so) would have required entry on a chart of lesser degree.) From an analytical standpoint, night owls should note that the 'C-D' leg has already exceeded its 31.335 mispoint resistance, implying that this burst will continue to at least 31.535, its 'D' sibling. Any higher would suggest bulls are eager to run as the new week begins. _______ UPDATE (12:22 p.m. EDT): Interesting coincidence, but the above tout went out Sunday evening exactly as May Silver was achieving its ill-fated overnight high. Unlike gold, however, the subsequent plunge cannot yet be called a swoon because the lost value has yet to be recouped.  The action is short-term bearish, since it generated a downtrending impulse leg on the hourly chart.  However, if Silver is to get back on a bullish track, we should see a harbinger of this in the form of a rebound from the midpoint Hidden Pivot of (30m) a=31.380 at 2:30 a.m. on 4/30; b=30.550 at 10 a.m., and c=?.

May Silver has trampolined $1.30 since bottoming earlier this week at 29.925, three ticks from a well advertised Hidden Pivot at 29.940.  If you're not on board already, look for subtle 'camo' opportunities on the 5-minute chart that occur within the framework of the correction from yesterday's 31.260 high.  Looking at a somewhat bigger picture, the next surge would need to carry above the tiny external peak at 31.685 shown in the chart to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the larger intraday charts.

Today's commentary was intended to brighten the day for silver bulls, but my touts for both Silver and Gold evince some finer technical shadings that are not quite so bullish.  In any case, I wouldn't get excited about either metal until such time as gold pops above a not-so-ambitious trendline that I've been featuring for a while.

So far so good.  The May futures have taken a healthy bounce from within a penny-and-a-half of the 29.940 pivot I began drum-rolling here on April 5.  We'll continue to trust but verify, however, since there's no room for hope or hubris in this game. You should be aware in any case that if Wednesday's low should fall, we'd be looking at more slippage to at least 28.680, a fresh 'D' target calculated from the next point 'A' high up the ladder.  Camouflageurs looking for a way to board should focus on the five-minute chart, where a suitable 'external' peak at 30.800 occurred yesterday at  10:20 a.m.

Is the worst over for silver? From a technical standpoint, both the Comex futures and Silver Wheaton shares have done exactly what we might have expected of them if they were carving out a durable bottom.  On Monday, the mining stock came with a single penny of a 27.97 correction target where we’d told subscribers to get long using an 8-cent stop-loss. Then, yesterday morning, May Silver futures trampolined from a low that lay just 1.5 cents from a correction target also identified using Hidden Pivot analysis. In both instances, powerful rallies began from within a hair of the targets, raising the odds that an important low is in.  Our 29.940 price objective for the May Comex contract was flagged three weeks ago when the futures were trading above $31 an ounce.  Yesterday’s explosive bounce from 29.925 carried them all the way to 30.740 -- an 81-cent surge that would have been worth $4000 to any trader lucky enough to have caught the entire ride. As for Silver Wheaton, subscribers have been instructed to hold onto half of any shares they may have bought when the stock bottomed Monday at 27.96.  Yesterday, tracking the ballistic move in bullion futures, Silver Wheaton traded for as much as 29.79.  That represents a gain on paper of more than 8% in less than a week, since subscribers were told to take a partial profit near 28.61. With our cost basis effectively reduced to 27.47, we can afford to let our profits run. But will the move continue? It’s impossible to be sure. However, based on the energetic leap that these two silver vehicles have taken so far, we are encouraged to hold onto at least a small portion of our original position in Silver Wheaton for a potential four-bagger.  We should note in

Although I still expect the May contract to carve out a potentially important low at 29.940, the 30.265 'D' target of the lesser pattern shown in the chart promises to reward bottom-fishers as well. Camouflage is suggested using a 5-minute chart or less, and you should start looking for the turn anywhere below 30.285.  Risk no more than $70 theoretical per contract on entry. I will establish a tracking position for your further guidance if at least two traders acting on my advice report fills in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (11:45 a.m. EDT): Silver has gotten obliterated today in the space of just 15 minutes, crushing the 30.265 pivot so that no camouflage entry was possible (or desirable).  The 29.940 pivot below it was probably inevitable anyway, so that's where you should look for an actual bottom. I can't confirm it at the moment, but it seems likely the hysterics are related to some statement that our factually challenged Fed chairman has uttered before some panel.