Silver

A midpoint pivot at 33.825 (see inset) has been central to corrective action over the last two days; now, it appears to be a base for the consolidation of Friday's impulsive thrust. No point 'C' low exists yet, but if the 34.030 low shown endures (unlikely, I'd say), the next buying spree could take this vehicle as high as 35.33.  Night owls should be ready for a sneak attack if the 'X' of a bullish pattern should trigger, since my hunch is that there won't be much time to get on board. Under the circumstances, a "timed" buy-stop may be the best way to do it.  Alternatively, if Silver should unexpectedly turn weak, the first place where we might look for a bounce is from 33.280, a midpoint support that could be bottom-fished via 'camouflage'

Index futures have gotten off to a slow start Sunday night, while gold and silver futures are holding their own in the face of a resurgent dollar.  Touts for the new week will be out later tonight, so stay tuned.

Back-to-back impulse legs on the intraday charts suggest that bulls are quietly building strength for an attempt at recouping Tuesday's big loss.  My immediate upside target is 33.550 (30m, A=32.860 on 3/7 at 11 a.m.; B=33.510, C=33.225). A thrust to that Hidden Pivot looked like no worse than an even-odds bet Wednesday night because its midpoint sibling at 33.550 has already been exceeded by six cents. Even so, it wouldn't take much from here to create a minor, bearish countertrend.  A print at 33.330 would suffice (30m, a=33.480 at 8:30), and completion to the 'd' target of the pattern would have bearish implications for the near term

Gold, silver and the broad averages all looked like hell at the close, and the likelihood of further weakness is corroborated by Hidden Pivot analysis.  Touts for gold and silver spell out precisely what would be needed to turn them decisively around.

A 31.950 correction target is equivalent to the one at 1623.40 that we're using for April Gold. Not far below it is an 'external' low at 31.600 that we should not want to see broken if Silver is to come roaring back. The best outcome, in fact, would be an upturn from somewhere above 31.950 -- the further above it, the better. Camouflageurs should look for the turn -- and trade it if the opportunity presents itself -- anywhere from 31.990 on down.

Yesterday's weakness trashed an important midpoint support at 33.825, implying more downside to at least 31.950. Bulls could negate this decree with a pop today exceeding 34.950, but failing that, we should expect the futures to struggle lower. If you want a more finely nuanced "bull trigger" to leverage a bullish camouflage opportunity, try using the look-to-the-lefter at 34.345 shown in the chart. A 'B-C' pullback from just above it could set up a screaming buy.

Minor rallies in gold and silver Sunday night were encouraging, but they look too fragile for bulls to put risk management on autopilot. Check out my touts for each, since the are both designated as 'Actionable,' albeit with caution.

Like April Gold, May Silver has generated a minor, bullish impulse leg Sunday night, although its potential as we went to press was fading in weakness that threatened to breach the point 'A' of the rally pattern (see inset).  If bulls wind up stymied, it could spell a relapse to as low as 33.645 over the near term, with last-ditch support at that Hidden Pivot's midpoint sibling, 34.295.  Those two numbers can be found on the 15-minute chart, where A=35.680 (March 1, 3:30 p.m.) and B=34.375 (March 2, 1:30 p.m.). Either number could be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks.

Precious metals appear to be recovering nicely after Wednesday’s punitive selloff. Although we initially assumed it might take a few weeks for gold and silver to build a base for the next moon shot, yesterday’s price action hinted that bullion quotes could be off and running much sooner.  To be sure, the price action yesterday just inches from ground zero was relatively timid, with small gains driving the markets.  However, that was to be expected, given the ferocity of the previous day’s plunge. It would have scared hell out of many investors, turning them cautious for the time being. But perhaps not for long. What was most encouraging about yesterday’s rally was its calmness, with relatively few of the whoops, feints and dives that characterize nervous markets. In fact, bulls made their ascent the way an experienced rock climber would scale an imposing cliff – i.e., one secure handhold/foothold at a time. From a technical standpoint, the chart above shows what Comex May Silver must do before we assume that the trauma from Wednesday’s shock-and-awe selloff  has mostly worn off. If you happen to trade the metals, we’d recommend setting an alert a tick above the highlighted peak at 36.185; for that is where bulls will once again have the bad guys on the run.  The peak may not look like much – in the parlance of our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method, it is known as a “peak along the wall” -- but it can be quite useful for purposes of gauging the determination and confidence of buyers. And if they’ve got the guts we think they’ve got, they should be able to push the futures through the resistance today or perhaps Sunday night with little or no evidence of deflection.  [Follow the action from ringside with a free trial