Nvidia’s Dive Is More than Merely Disappointing

I’ve displayed a bullish pattern because the fall from mid-October’s 112.45 peak didn’t quite reach the corrective pattern’s midpoint Hidden Pivot (p).  The uptrend struggled for loft last week, however, and failed by 9 cents to trigger a conventional ‘buy’ signal at 95.79. The trigger will remain valid until such time as GDXJ slips beneath the ‘C’ low at 92.66.  We’ll adjust C downward if that occurs, but below 91.50, the short-term outlook would shift to bearish. Even so, a tightly stopped bid can be attempted there if you’re a scalper, since it is the ‘d’ target of a small reverse pattern.

Bitcoin is due for a bounce, so I’ve focused on the smallest possible instance of it on the hourly chart. It tripped a minor buy signal at 82,617 on Friday, then delivered an opportunity to take a small partial profit 86,685, the pattern’s midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. The overshoot of p was slight, but it is still sufficient for us to infer the bounce will achieve the ‘d’ target at 88,821. Scalpers can short there provide they’ve made a profit on the way up and that they are able to keep entry risk down to 0.1% or less. The short squeeze powering this oversold rally could be nasty, so be prepared for significantly higher prices, albeit not to a new record high.  (UPDATE: Bitcoin is a nuisance for me to track because it never stops to observe a sabbath. The analysis above was prescient and precise, as you have come to expect from Rick’s Picks. However, between the time I prepared the forecast a day ago, when this symbol was trading for around 84,630, and now (Sunday morning), it has frog-leaped higher and will soon be at my 88,821 target.  I don’t ordinarily publish a new slate of touts until late Sunday afternoon, but I’m going to hit the send button on this update now, since I don’t want it to appear as though I am predicting the little s.o.b.’s every move with hindsight. As long-time subscribers will have observed, it is no great trick to forecast Bitcoin’s hysterics precisely and consistently using the Hidden Pivot Method.)

My hardcore deflationist point of view has saddled me with a bullish bias whenever I ponder a T-bond chart. Although this allowed me to catch the October 2023 bottom just off the low, it also caused me to see the nearly two-year dirge that has occurred since as base-building for a long bull market that has yet to materialize. I don’t doubt that it’s coming, presumably in conjunction with the next recession. But TLT’s chart suggests it could take many months before it rises and, inversely, yields begin to fall. In the meantime, look for it to scuddle sideways, with a moderate bias to the downside that would correspond to merely somewhat higher long-term rates.  Altering our expectations in this way can help diminish the distraction of believing Trump can do something about it — i.e., about rates determined by markets, and about high levels of debt that are crushing America’s middle class. He can’t, and his expansionist, credit-driven economic policies will only exacerbate the bearish trend in bonds. Suppose the small rise in their price over the last two years has completely discounted the global appeal of Trump’s bold leadership and the additional demand this has created for U.S. Treasury paper. In that case, it’s hard to imagine a bullish surge in T-bonds when the President’s inflationary policies produce the opposite of instant economic miracles: stagflation.