The Morning Line

Summer Topping Process Could Get Messy

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The stock market is in a topping process, brazenly manipulated by white-collar carnies who cut their teeth at Sloan, Wharton and Stanford. These newly trained ass-bandits have been working Microsoft shares to hold the broad averages aloft while they offload inventory to widows, pensioners and assorted other bag holders. I described in detail how this game works in a previous commentary. Even though Microsoft, the world’s most valuable company, has a $3 trillion capitalization, it costs the perpetrators almost nothing to drive the stock vertically higher, adding hundreds of billions of dollars of gaseous asset inflation (aka ‘wealth effect’) to the global ledger.

Flimsy Reasons

When last week ended, the world’s largest-cap stock was poking its greasy little snout marginally above the previous all-time high at 468.35 recorded last July. This breakout will not have gone unnoticed by a million dip-buying homunculi, since it is no longer a dip they are buying, but the latest move into thin air. Although MSFT will continue to outperform all other stocks for reasons implied above, I doubt it’s short-squeeze histrionics can drag the lumpen mass of securities significantly higher. At best, the also-rans will make marginal new highs until the last buyer runs out of flimsy reasons later this summer.

It has never been clearer that mass mental-illness, far more than invented ‘fundamentals’, is what drives stocks higher in the late stages of a bull market. If news mattered, the 1914-ish darkness of today’s headlines would have crushed the Dow six months ago.

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$+ESM25 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:6006.75)

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:470.38)

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$BTCUSD – Bitcoin (Last:104,579)

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$SIN25 – July Silver (Last:36.130)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:69.00)

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:85.35)

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There’s no point in sugar-coating it: minor, bullish impulse legs on the daily chart have not been strong enough to reverse the horrific carnage in U.S. Bond markets. Absent some hitherto unimagined turn of affairs, we should expect TLT’s slide to continue down to the 77.49 target shown, at least. The short-lived rally in early April to the green line triggered a theoretically profitable short, so we know the pattern is working. It now says p2=81.64 will be the next stop on the way down, so let’s use that as a minimum downside objective for now,

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:4.51%)

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The chart promises relief shortly for T-Note rates.  The pattern shown suggests they are an opportune short at the green line (x=4.512%), stop 4.630%.  That does not necessarily mean they are about to fall all the way down to the 4.161% target. But it does imply that rates will ease to at least p=4.395% before they head higher again, if they do.  The secondary pivot, p2=4.278%, promises a tradable bounce as well, although not necessarily a durable bottom.

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:99.20)

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Sloppy action since mid-May has transformed a slightly promising picture for the dollar into a sorry mess. The bearish pattern shown has already signaled a profitable ‘mechanical’ short at the green line (x=100.58), and there’s no reason it will not continue to dominate DXY until the 96.36 target is reached.  The pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that a tradable bounce from ‘D’ is likely, but if not much of a bounce materializes, it’ll be time for Katie to bar the door.

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$CLN25 – July Crude (Last:61.53)

Crude looks primed to screw the pooch, but the daily chart suggests two trade possibilities nonetheless.  One would call for getting short on a pop to d=65.38.  A stop-loss as tight as 15 cents can be used, although it would be preferable to set up a ‘camo’ trigger pattern on a chart of a lesser degree. The second trade calls for bidding ‘mechanically at the green line (x=57.0). The textbook stop-loss would be just below c=54.33, so tighter risk management is called for by entering the trade with a trigger pattern of small degree.

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