The Morning Line

How a Vacation Resets Your Inner Clock

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My regular commentary will resume next week when I my return from a busman’s holiday on the West Coast. In its place is an excerpt from Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain that holds an epiphany for the way we experience and recall the passage of time.  It has been published here before, but this version was masterfully shortened and simplified by ChatGPT so that more readers could understand and appreciate it.  The original can be found in the chapter “Excursus on the Sense of Time” in several translations. RA

There is something peculiar about deliberately settling into a new place—making the effort to adjust, to feel at home—only to leave again once that adjustment is complete. We insert such intervals into our lives as a kind of restorative break. They are meant to refresh us when the steady sameness of daily routine has begun to dull and weaken us. But this dulling is not simple physical or mental fatigue; if it were, rest alone would cure it. The real issue is psychological: when life becomes too uniform, our sense of time fades. And because our awareness of time is bound up with our awareness of being alive, when one weakens, so does the other.
We commonly think that interesting experiences make time pass quickly, while monotony makes it drag. That is only partly true. Monotony does make hours feel long and tedious. Yet over longer stretches it has the opposite effect: it compresses time. Large, uniform periods shrink in memory until they seem to vanish. By contrast, rich and varied days may fly by in the moment, but they give weight and substance to life as a whole, so that years filled with variety seem fuller and longer than empty ones that slip away unnoticed.

          Sameness Brings Tedium

Tedium, then, is not the lengthening but the abnormal shortening of time tough sameness. When every day resembles the next, they collapse into one; complete uniformity would make even a long life feel brief, as if it had stolen past us. Habituation is a kind of sleep of the time-sense. This is why childhood seems long, while later years accelerate.
We therefore seek change and novelty to revive our sense of time and, with it, our sense of life. Travel, cures, holidays—these work because new surroundings broaden time’s flow. The first days in a new place feel expansive, perhaps for a week. Then familiarity sets in, and time begins to contract again. Anyone who clings to life can feel how, toward the end of a stay, the days grow lighter and scurry past like dry leaves.
The effect lingers briefly after returning home: the first days back feel fresh and spacious. But we adapt more quickly to the ordinary than to the exceptional. If age—or low vitality—has already weakened the sense of time, the renewal fades almost at once. Within a day it can feel as though we had never left at all, as though the journey were no more than a brief watch in the night.

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$ESH26 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:6625.25)

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Wall Street evidently sees the war as little more than an annoyance, something to be gotten over as quickly as possible so that the monkeys who are paid to throw Other People’s Money at stocks can get back to business as usual. Their main impediment at the moment is Trump-deranged media coverage that is rooting so hard against Trump that they are practically cheering on Iran.  Bloomberg, the New York Times and the Washington Post et al. could almost make you believe that Iran, without a Navy, can mine the Strait of Hormuz under the watchful eye of the most sophisticated minesweeper fleet on the planet. In the meantime, the news media’s relentless barrage of discouragements has made it extremely difficult for the chimps and prop desk whizzes to trigger off the kind of short-squeeze leaps that could push the broad averages to new record highs in mere days. And so they continue to bide their time, waiting for cheerier headlines.

Although the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&Ps have shown little life this year, neither have they shown much weakness. In any event, investors are certain to remain obsessed with oil prices until quotes recede from the $100 threshold, and until the talking heads concede that the current price dislocations are not likely to be permanent. In the meantime, this is no bear market, just a perpetual-motion money machine waiting to lurch wildly back into gear.  Oh, right, a price target: The futures look southbound most immediately for 6452.75, and a rally to the green line (x=6752.19) would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short, stop 6852.25. It is recommended only to subscribers who know how to cut the $5000 risk per contract to $250 or less, and it is most definitely NOT recommended to Nick.  Here’s a link to my latest rant at Howe Street. The headline alludes to the stock market topping out, but as the above analysis implies, there is room to disagree, even with oneself.

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:395.55)

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$GCJ26 – April Gold (Last:5061.70)

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April Gold will trigger a mechanical buy when (not if) it falls to the green line (x=4838.60). The trade is predicated on a 6084.80 target that looks like a 75% shot to be reached. I proffer this information not to get you salivating, but rather to clarify the picture at a time when price action has been lackluster and forecasts are all over the lot.  The trade rates an ‘8.1’, which means my confidence is quite high. Since the initial risk would be $41,490 per contract, I am recommending the trade only to subscribers who are quite proficient with ‘camo’ entry triggers, no exceptions.

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$SIK26 – May Silver (Last:81.343)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:123.93)

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$$TNX.X – 10-Year Note Rate (Last:4.21%)

Rates on the 10-Year Note came within a hair on Friday of lows not seen since October. My suggestion is to enjoy it while it lasts, since the intraday bottom closely coincided with a Hidden Pivot target at 3.952%. The actual low was 3.956%, which was near enough to consider the target fulfilled. Alternatively, if the downtrend continues on Monday, breaching not just the target but October’s 3.976% bottom, be ready for more slippage to 3.917%, a voodoo number worth bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you’re comfortable with. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7): It looks like the prediction of an important low hit a bullseye, since this vehicle has since trampolined as high as 4.19% after bottoming a split hair from the 3.952 target. Here’s the chart. _____ UPDATE (March 15): And now rates have rebounded to as high as 4.29%.  Too bad the talking heads on Bloomberg and MSNBC, the Fed board of governors and the Wall Street Journal editorialists were unaware of the potentially major turn-up when my forecast caught its exact low, since precisely accurate technical forecasts are unknown in their world of bullshit metadata.

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