The Morning Line

What Rough Beast?

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If you can’t guess what commodity the chart shows, you must be living on Mars. It is in fact a long-term picture of silver, which went ballistic in December.  The price has doubled since, blowing out a $50 top that had stood since 1980. That price became a part of silver’s legend, since it is where one of the wealthiest men in the world, oil tycoon Nelson Bunker Hunt, met his financial Waterloo. With his brothers, Lamar and William, ‘Bunky’ had attempted to corner the market by buying up silver and futures contracts amounting to about a third of the world’s supply.  Comex regulators responded by raising margin requirements so high that there were just two players left in the game: the Hunts and Eastman Kodak, a huge industrial user of silver. From a record $50.45 per ounce, the price plunged by half in mere days, forcing the Hunts to sell nearly everything they owned to meet margin calls.  In retrospect, they seem not to have broken any rules. However, the Comex was forced to crush them in order to stabilize the metals market.

 

What Does It Mean?

 

Silver’s current rise has been orderly, more or less, but with a pitch so steep that it caught many players with their pants down.  No reason to feel sorry for them, since they are ethically and morally on a level with child molesters, broad-tossers and cannibals.  But the radical shift in precious-metal prices relative to all other classes of investable assets raises a question that should concern us all.  For it is not happening in a vacuum, and we can only guess at what it will mean years down the road. Will silver resume a monetary role? Is Trump licking his chops over the prospect of borrowing against all of the gold supposedly stored in Ft. Knox?  Is gold predicting a crisis that would leave the global money system in wreckage? We’ll have our answer eventually, but it could already be very late in the game for those seeking the bomb-proof safe haven that gold has always offered.

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$HGH26 – March Copper (Last:5.9475)

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Copper and a rotating selection of popular symbols  will be replacing Bitcoin on this page, although I will continue to provide timely analysis for Bitcoin on demand in the chat room.  The chart shows how copper’s price has tripled since bottoming just beneath $2 a pound in March 2020, when covid fears seized up the world’s machinery. ‘Doc’ Copper has seemingly done its job in predicting an upswing in global industrial activity.  In particular, it included a surge in demand caused by a worldwide push toward renewable energy and electric vehicles, which require a lot of copper for batteries, charging infrastructuire and renewable energy systems. However, copper’s ascent has nearly reached a clean, hard target at $6.18 a pound that suggests the bull market may have run its course. Does that meaan a global recession-or-worse looms? We will not likely know the answer to that question until a recession is well under way. It is coming eventually, but in the meantime, a bull market that has been galloping along for 16 years should command our respect, if not unquestioning confidence. If an important top is in at 6.1540 (basis the March contract) , it wouldl be corroborated by a pullback that decisively exceeds 5.36. A somewhat higher top would require an adjustment in that number, a Hidden Pivot, so stay tuned.

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$ESH26 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:6945.75)

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:465.95)

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DaBoyz took advantage of bearish expectations that have been intensifying since the stock began its long dirge in the final days of October.  The rabid short squeeze pushed MSFT to the top of the list of Friday”s percentage gainers. It also slightly piereced a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 469.36 that is associated with a ‘D’ target at 500.03. Penetration was not sufficiently brutal to clinch more upside to the target, nor to guarantee the profitability of a ‘mechanical’ buy at the green line. (As things stand, it would rate a still-enticing ‘7.3’.)  A bullish trading bias is warranted in any case, as is the expectation that this behemoth’s continuing ascent will add buoyancy to the broad averages and the lunatic sector (aka ‘Magnificent Seven’).

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$GCG26 – Feb Gold (Last:4979.70)

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SIH26 – March Silver (Last:101.333)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:145.03)

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:49,504)


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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:87.74)


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