February 12th, 2012
Published Daily
COMMENTARY for Tuesday

Selloff Leaves Delusions Intact

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 1:47 am GMT

We’ll never be entirely comfortable cheerleading bear rallies, but what else can a guru do when stocks want to go higher for all the wrong reasons? Although shares fell hard yesterday, there was little in the sell-off to suggest that the short-squeeze begun three weeks ago is over.  More likely is that the smart money simply fell away on news that the Obama Administration is going to play hardball with the auto manufacturers — or rather, » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday

Actionable, all…

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 2:59 am GMT

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Rick's Picks for Tuesday
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E-Mini S&P (last: 788.75)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 2:00 am GMT

e-mini-could-be-setting-upThe impulse leg highlighted in the chart looks very promising for night owls, even if a point ‘C’ high has not yet been established.  If the so-far high at 790.00 endures, however, I’d suggest bottom-fishing at 778.25 (the midpoint Hidden Pivot) using a two-tick stop-loss.  If the futures waft higher Monday night, the midpoint gambit will remain appealing as long as ‘C’ is no higher than 792.00 or so. ______ UPDATE: The correction never even got down to the midpoint, even after the midpoint migrated slightly north overnight to 779.50.  As of 1:50 p.m., the futures were threatening another assault on bears, chomping away at a 799.75 target that is the highest I could have projected for today using the intraday charts. 

April Gold (last: 916.50)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 2:10 am GMT

The 894.80 downside target given here yesterday is still viable and remains my minimum objective for the near term. However, if the futures are going to get out of jeopardy, they’ll need to  touch 936.80 by day’s end.  The key impediment to this feat lies at exactly 925.10, so any thrust that exceeds that Hidden Pivot resistance by a point or more shouldbe taken as an encouraging sign.

May Silver (last: 13.040)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 2:40 am GMT

subtle-unintutive-patternI like the 12.865 target shown in the chart for bottom-fishing, since the ABC coordinates are subtle and unintuitive. This one is for night owls, and the odds that it will work are going to improve if  the futures don’t wander above 13.070 Monday night. An initial stop loss as tight as 2-3 ticks is advised, but you should switch to a 3-cent trailing stop if the expected rally exceeds 13.085.  _______ UPDATE: The Hidden Pivot at 12.865 proved far too delicate for this morning’s uninhibited swoon, so anyone who took my advice would have been stopped out for at least a few ticks. The  rebound has been unimpressive and has yielded no further opportunities of consequence this morning.

GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:100.63)

by Rick Ackerman on March 31, 2009 2:54 am GMT

With the July 115-April 115 call spread trading currently trading for 8.15, we have a nice cushion in our position, since we legged into the spread twice for 6.00. We also shorted an extra April 115 call for 3.80, so our paper gain is about $320 if you count the two April 90-85 put spreads we also hold twice for 1.20 as a scratch. Concerning the stock, it looked bound for a Hidden Pivot support at 99.42 when the bell rang to end yesterday’s session, or to 97.67 if any lower.  Let’s buy two round lots of stock if GS trades at the lower target today, stop 97.59. This can be done independently of any other positions you may already be holding. ______ UPDATE: The correction went no lower than 100.46 overnight, so we did nothing on the order. The good news is that with Goldman creeping toward the 115 strike and the month of April just hours away, our spread position is fattening just as we might have expected.  It could be exited for as much as $10 at the moment, yielding an $800 profit on just two spreads, but we’ll let it ride for now, since 115 may act as both a magnet and a leash on the stock.

$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:35.93)

by Rick Ackerman on February 9, 2012 4:24 am GMT

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$GS – Goldman Sachs (Last:116.29)

by Rick Ackerman on February 8, 2012 3:36 am GMT

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Dow Industrial Average (DJIA) price chart with targetsTake any dozen good reasons for being bearish right now and they still don’t equal the bullishness of the chart shown. The undeniably compelling rally objective is 13085, a 4.8% move from current levels, and one can only surmise that the dusting the 12158 midpoint received on the last pullback (12/28) all but clinched a finishing stroke to the higher number. Moreover, it implies that bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high even if, in the next few days, the Dow plummets 324 points to retest the midpoint support. As of now, that would signal not weakness, but a screaming opportunity to get long.  Hard to believe, really, but that’s what the charts say. 


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