March 2009

On the 5-minute chart, the last peak to occur before TBT plunged was at 47.95. With a 'B' low at 43.12 and 'C' at 46.02, we can identify a Hidden Pivot midpoint at 43.60 that can serve as a minimum downside objective for the near term. Its 'D' sibling lies at

The whack-jobs who had supporting roles in yesterday's short-squeeze burlesque are likely to have their resolve tested at

Yesterday's explosive rally will have put shorts seriously on the ropes, since many of them must have been hoping to reap "free money" from call options they'd sold near the 900 strike. Even so, we should acknowledge that while the thrust did exceed the required two prior peaks to create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, it did not

The April 115 calls were an easy sale yesterday for 3.80, and so we are now long the July 115-April 115 calls spread twice for 6.00 and short an extra April 115 call for 3.80. This position is bullish and yields a theoretical profit over a very wide range of prices between $90 and around $130. Our maximum gain of about $2,200 would come with

Gold bulls got sweet revenge yesterday when the Fed surprised everyone by announcing a shock-and-awe program to jolt the housing market back to life.  Gold shot up $70, or about 8 percent, on the news after starting the day in a near free-fall.  As bullish as we've been on gold, we'd anticipated this weakness the night before with the following real-time update sent out to subscribers:  "In thin trading Tuesday night, by breaching the 913.90 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown in the chart, the April contract has tripped a signal implying a fall to 886.70 is imminent."  In the actual event, the futures exceeded the target by a few dollars before staging their amazing comeback.  All of this was not lost on Rick's Picks subscribers, including Dominic C., who evidently made hay with the forecast:  "Been a subscriber for a week now.  I just used your 886 gold target this morning.  I live in Maui so when I woke up gold was at $888. Bought at $890.  Sold twenty minutes later at $924.  I guess I should have held onto it longer.   I already made enough money to pay for the seminar.  Unfortunately I will be in Oahu on business that weekend but if you have a recorded seminar please let me know."  (Note to Dom and others who may be interested in the April 1-2 Hidden Pivot seminar:  Join us for a free online demo during market hours this Tuesday. Click here to sign up for it and receive a free pivot calculator as well as a detailed description of the Hidden Pivot Method.) Another subscriber, Phil D., also wrote to say he caught the move:  "Entered April Gold Comex today at 883.90.  The drop must have been wicked as that is well below the trigger price of my conditional order set to buy well above

We looked first at a chart of AngloGold, and although our initial thought was to buy the stock at a ‘D’ pullback target, we held back because AU looked liked it had more correcting to do. Contemplating another chart, we discovered that the E-Mini S&P had impulsed overnight within a 10-day uptrend that was easily visible on the hourly chart. A morning shakedown made us eager to buy a nascent C-D leg. Our options were twofold: buy at the swing low of the countertrend; or wait for a camouflage opportunity on the first ABC pattern of the bounce.

We'll heed the subtle but potentially wicked bullish impulse leg created by the E-Mini S&P at the tail end of yesterday's regular session. Please note as well that if Crude hasn't topped for at least the short-term, a 10 percent rally could be brewing.

The 49.62 target (if memory serves) disseminated in the chat room yesterday morning was exceeded by 20 cents -- not quite enough for us to infer with confidence that the rally has breathed its last. The target stands to be significant from a short-term perspective, but if it is brushed aside within the next two days, look for the rally to continue to at least

Anglogold, mentioned in today's commentary, looks all but certain to reach a minimum 37.62 over the near term. That's an 8.6% rally from here, and it would be a good place for long-term bulls to