But for one deceptively small but significant detail, the rally since March bears an eerie resemblance to the one that  swept the Dow Industrials 3000 points higher between early 2003 and 2004.  The inset chart shows the Dow rally, and why it forced me, a bear’s bear, to stay bullish on the stock market as it consolidated for several years near the 10000 level. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, the key was that the rally from the 2003 created an impulse leg that did not break into a b-c correction until it had surpassed the peak recorded in early 2002. 

This time, however, the same rally — but on a much smaller scale, and lying within a larger bear-market downtrend — has failed to get past the equivalent peak on the first try — and that is one of the strongest pieces of evidence that the powerful market surge since early March has been corrective rather than impulsive.  More immediately, looking at yesterday’s action, we saw a bounce from within just a few ticks of a trendline that I drew during yesterday’s pre-opening briefing. 

 The day’s gratuitous ups and downs aside, it did nothing to alter my expectations of a surge into the 980s. Because I do not trust the market one bit, however, we will stay close to the lesser charts, the better to discern any clues that “expectations” on the part of the crowd may have mutated into complacency or worse. For the moment, night owls can try bottom-fishing at 934.25, stop 933.50, provided the point ‘c’ of the relevant pattern,   946.00 (at 9:10 p.m. on the 5-minute chart), is not exceeded first. _______ UPDATE (10:18 a.m.):  The fuures bottomed overnight at 936.75, or 2.50 points shy of the midpoint. The turn from above the pivot hinted of strength on Thursday.  Nonetheless, at the moment, a minor Hidden Pivot at 952.00 looks like it will offer at least short-term resistance.