June 2009

The 925.50 target has been a while in coming, but I wouldn't buy it on the second pass today after yesterday's near-miss. Instead, I'd recommend bidding down near ____, using a stop-loss just beyond the ____low recorded ____. That could prove to be too obvious a support to work, but even if so, there should be a bounce from above it the first time it is approached.  The safest way to get long would be to use camouflage, which in this instance would be available on a pullback from a tick or two above  a 939.70 peak-let made on the way down yesterday. I have drawn a map of sorts to help you visualize this entry tactic, but keep in mind that its success will depend on how nondescript the point 'B' high is. If it overshoot 939.70 by more than three ticks, that would negate our edge.

Trendline support became resistance yesterday in the blink of an eye, as the futures experienced an unaccustomed setback -- their worst point decline in two months.  There were no ready explanations for the weakness, although some commentators ascribed it to disappointing economic data that as recently as Friday would not have given bulls a moment's pause. The move was impulsive on the daily chart (see inset), suggesting that we'll need to take it seriously from the get-go. However, because there are no compelling Hidden Pivot targets that we can use at the moment, we'll need to keep a Fibonacci-based support at _____ in mind as a minimum downside objective for now. Check back Tuesday if it fails to hold, though, since it may be possible by then to gauge the strength of the selloff using Hidden Pivots. 

Unh hee-yah! Unh hee-yah! Unh hee-yah!  Gold futures have been pumping iron for more than a year -- and so much the better for all of us if they weren't up to demolishing the $1000 barrier a couple of weeks ago after getting as close as $992 per ounce. We should regard bullion's tedious ups and downs over the last eighteen months as quiet preparation for an explosive show of strength. When it finally happens, detonation will be so powerful as to leave doubters in despair after they realize gold is trading $300 higher and they are not on board. In the meantime, those who have been accumulating coins, ingots and gold shares can relax, since whatever disasters may have befallen nearly every other class of investable assets since 2006, the damage did not even touch gold. To the contrary, the metal has been a solid winner during that time, regardless of the state of the economy and the financial system, and despite mounting fears of inflation, hyperinflation, or deflation.  13 Barrels Per Ounce Even crude oil at a current $70 a barrel has lagged gold by a wide margin, as the chart above shows. You could have bought six barrels of oil with an ounce of gold when both were topping out last July; now, with gold trading well off its highs, you can buy 13 barrels. We think that ratio will triple, at least, before gold has fully discounted the ongoing destruction of the dollar. Meanwhile, even though Comex Gold has dropped $65 since early June, the technical picture looks untroubled. We'd projected a drop in the August contract to 925.50 per ounce to begin with, and yesterday that target was very nearly reached on a low of 926.50. We were buyers there, but we'd buy even more if

I haven't offered a Pick of the Day recently, but the downside target in Apple looks like a good place for a novice to try his or her luck.  I offer such trades from time to time with the goal of having them pay for your subscription, even if you do not trade actively.

A Hidden Pivot at 326.21 is my worst-case downside target for the near term, and you could bottom-fish there aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as 325.99.

A Hidden Pivot target at 14.345 is my minimum downside projection for the very short-term, although a pop today or tomorrow to 15.095 would put bulls back in charge for the moment.

Friday's high at 90.65 coincided to-the-penny with a Hidden Pivot target easily visible on the 30-minute chart. To sustain the momentum, bulls will need to push this vehicle up to 90.95 today -- or even more convincingly, to 91.65.

If a Hidden Pivot at 570-4/8 doesn't contain the selling, look for the futures to group their way down to visually obvious support near 563.

If the futures breach a midpoint support at 1.3938, look for the decline to continue to at least 1.3847.