Our Man of the Year Is…Mr. Market!

Time magazine chose Helicopter Ben as “Man of the Year,” supposedly because the financial system would have collapsed if not for the unprecedented emergency actions pursued by Mr. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve. We’d say the jury’s still out on that one, since Phase II of the central bank’s ingenious recovery plan – i.e., pray that the mountain of worthless debt still held by the banks eventually rises in value – has yet to bear fruit. We’re skeptical ourselves that this can or will ever occur, since there is no way the mortgage collateral that underlies much of that debt will ever return to anything remotely approaching the boom levels that obtained before the subprime lending market collapsed in 2007.  Our skepticism is based on a more general concern as well — namely, the not unreasonable suspicion that huge new amounts of borrowing are unlikely to cure an economy already suffocating from debt.   

 Mr-Market  

However things turn out, and in the meantime, we’d like to nominate our own Man of the Year:  Mister Market. Usually this personification implies an all-seeing, all-knowing force that works sort of like Santa Claus in reverse. Whereas Santa makes a list, checks it twice, and knows which kids have been naughty or nice, Mr. Market plays no favorites.  Indeed, regardless of whether an investor has been as wicked as Ahmadinejad or as virtuous as Mother Theresa, Mr. Market will see to it that he gets the kind of screwing that we usually associate with the nether reaches of the Nine Circles of Hell. And don’t dare show the smallest sign of nervousness about any speculative outcome, since, when Mr. Market smells weakness, he will take special pains to single out you, first of all, to pay the price. 

This is Mr. Market’s proper role, and we can be certain he will return to it with a vengeance and in spectacular fashion when this mind-boggling bear rally has run its course. But until then, he can be counted on to give Bernanke and the spinmeisters excellent cover whenever they tell us the economy is recovering. Who would ever believe such a thing, were the Dow Industrial Average not buoyant, frisky and trading effortlessly above 10000 at the moment?  In reality, the “green shoots” story is the biggest lie about the economy since Hoover spied prosperity just around the corner – a fable that bluntly contradicts evidence of deepening recession that we can see all around us.  And yet, with the Dow trading at 10328 – its settlement price on Friday – one could almost believe there’s some life in the economy.  With Christmas less than a week off, it is  Mr. Market we should thank for this dangerous illusion, not Ben Bernanke. 

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  • CC December 22, 2009, 1:47 am

    “If the general public, (which is not quite as stupid as both parties seem to think)…”

    Actually, they are. It is self-evident in the fact that a quasi-Marxist was elected last November by a fairly wide margin of the intelligent American public. The general public, but especially the ranks of the cheering section (uber-libs or uber-conservatives both), like to think that their party’s are battling for all that is right, when in reality – after the Punch & Judy show (network news) is off-air, they’re dining it up with crab cakes and $15 cocktails at the swankiest DC restaurants – with huge grins and on Your TAX dollar Dime…

    And thanks to Rick (and a few other good Men out there) for calling the ‘person’ on the cover of TIME by his correct identity – which would be Male – i.e., ‘Man of the Year’.

    TIME magazine has been a far stretch from objectivity for a while, but when they caved in to the political-correctness of gender-identity politics, they became more bird cage lining than anything else.

    So here’s to Man of the Year –

  • TahoeBilly December 21, 2009, 9:20 pm

    Dick Cheney-Outdoorsman of the Year

    Tiger Woods-Family man of the Year

    Truth is way stranger than fiction!

  • Rich December 21, 2009, 7:58 pm

    Making Princeton academic Benjamin Shalom Bernanke Man of the Year for saving the financial system is like giving credit to Cock O’ Doodle Dandy Doo, Henry Merritt Hank Paulson Jr or Timothy Franz Geithner for raising the sun every morning he crowed while not paying taxes.
    Maybe, after crowing green shoots for over a year without economic recovery, BSB is beginning to realize exactly why the Fed failed from 1929 to 1949. We can’t make banks, companies and people go into more debt than they can afford.
    Things are no longer going up. The inflation trade is dead.
    Long live the mattress dollar trade.
    We can’t make it by faking it with 22% fiat money inflation and 22% unemployment. That ersatz money game was over in 2008.
    Only productivity and savings will grow our way into real recovery.
    That may take decades of restoring Constitutional liberty and property rights deliberately trashed by Big Brother to steal from The People.
    Big Government politicians were so intent on borrowing, spending and taxing their way into catastrophic failures with Autos, Banks, Carbon, Climate, Children, Flu, Healthcare, Jobs and whatever hype sold ads, that only inevitable catastrophic irrevocable failure will stop them now.
    No one believes fake government monopoly media headlines now.
    We are out of money except for $2 T in dollar bills.
    Banks owe more than they own, far more than their deposits.
    FDIC is out of money, depending on a $500 B credit line that may disappear any day when the Treasury admits it is out of money due to falling tax receipts and people unwilling to loan beggar Uncle money any longer than a two year T Note.
    Only counterfeiting deficits maintained the illusion of GDP solvency from 1984 until now as illegals were imported for cheap labour with jobs shipped overseas.
    This collapse is hardly inflationary. Who can eat an IOU?
    $604 Trillion OTC derivatives and $106 Trillion unfunded government agency mandated liabilities choked the world GDP to death to end the era of profligacy.
    The BRICs, Euros and PIIGS are in worse shape than the USA.
    Those like Russell and Schultz that think gold will be the safe hedge against default-driven deflation may be living in the past, when the USA was on a gold standard when Dome and Homestake sold gold to the government at a profit from lower wages and a 69% higher gold standard price. Today, either gold goes to $106,354.73 an ounce to reflect its scarcity relative to fiat assets, or derivatives collapse to productive economic reality. We make our choice and take our chance. Assets are valued by the income they produce.
    Gold produces nothing but a heavy lump in our pocket with more risk.
    Don’t try getting gold coins through a metal detector or they may be confiscated.
    Every recent flight to safety over the past year has been into dollars, not gold.
    I am very concerned, based on Big4 Weekly Asset Allocation Reports showing more than 2 big money shorts on gold for every long, that Rick’s characterization of Mr Market as a bad Santa Claus may come true for Gold bugs. Goldilocks, after a 20-year bear market from Jan 1980, made five times her money from 2000 to 2009. She now risks an air pocket buying on dips here without Trailing Sell Stops. Blind faith rarely works with markets or politicians.
    Neither gold or government are religion.
    If we don’t believe this, let’s learn the facts like the back of our hand:
    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
    Meanwhile, having made good money on gold, platinum and silver, I will not buy them again until the Big4 do. Deflation means lower precious metals, not higher…

  • Jeff Kahn December 21, 2009, 2:14 pm

    Hi Rick,

    As a libertarian, I would agree completely with your view on the inefficiencies of the government. But I do find it surprising that someone such as yourself who understands what is going on at many of the major financial institutions would consider that “playing fast and loose” with clients money is not nearly so egregious. If the general public, (which is not quite as stupid as both parties seem to think) finally loses confidence in the financial structure, it will collapse. And I’m afraid we’re not all that far from that.