In the histrionics of the last few days, gold has shown no great eagerness to decisively reverse the correction from early December’s high. While it is true that Wednesday’s sharp rally created a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts, the follow-through has been less than inspiring. Let’s set the bar at 1148.10 for now so that we don’t mistake mere noise for a potentially meaningful resurgence. The rally could chop around as much as it likes, but once it crosses the starting line at 1128.70, the thrust would have to carry, unpaused, past 1148.00. In the meantime, we’ll monitor the corrective pattern in the chart closely, since incipient strength would presumably be telegraphed by a turn from the midpoint pivot shown, or from somewhere above it. The pattern is hypothetical at the moment, since ‘C’ might not survive the night.
From the monthly archives:
February 2010
The bonds exceeded a midpoint by enough to suggest that dual targets of 115^10 and 115^06 are coming. Traders should focus on the lower of these two pivots. ______ UPDATE (10:54 a.m. EST): A smaller pattern has emerged on the hourly chart in which the midpoint has been surpassed, pointing toward the D target of 115^24.
An accurate bounce off of a midpoint pivot followed by a sharp breach suggests that the Yen futures are headed for a D target at 1.0890. To get there, they will have to cut through a midpoint pivot of 1.0903 which comes from a large pattern on the daily chart. ______ UPDATE (11:06 a.m. EST): The yen rallied enough to cancel the 1.0890 target, but 1.0903 remains active. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (05:18 p.m. EST): The Fed discount rate announcement sent the yen into a dive. The 1.0903 midpoint pivot was exceeded very narrowly, by ten pips, before the session ended.
If a midpoint pivot at 15.180 does not hold, silver’s next objective will be dual D targets of 14.085 and 14.030, which come from two distinct patterns on the daily chart. ______ UPDATE (04:10 p.m. EST): So long as silver remains below 16.330, the 15.180 and 14.030 targets are active. Just above 16.330 are additional hourly highs off to the left, up to 16.410. A move above 16.330 would be bullish, above 16.410 moreso.
Gold appeared headed for a midpoint pivot at 1094.90, which will remain in play so long as 1106.30 is not revisited. The sibling D target is at 1083.50. A rally of $12.70 off a session low would activate a larger bullish pattern that began at 1178.10. ______ UPDATE (11:02 a.m. EST): Gold reversed above the midpoint and exceeded 1106.30, cancelling the targets. The rally was indeed more than $12.70, which confirmed upside targets at 1123.40 and 1148.70. The midpoint of this pattern at 1123.40 was punctured minutes ago, signalling more upside to come. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (04:18 p.m. EST): In the chat room, two different intraday patterns were discussed which have identical midpoints at 1128.50, two ticks below the daily and weekly high of 1128.70 made yesterday. The intraday midpoints are therefore not “hidden,” but they presumably add significance to the 1128.70 high.
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This week Rick is traveling in Mexico. This commentary was written by Douglas McLagan.
The December 2009 COMEX Gold futures contract recently completed a rally that lifted its price by more than 75% in less than fourteen months’ time. This is easily forgotten by gold bulls who spend too much time watching bullion bank sell-bots run rampant on trading screens, but it is a fact. The rally took gold through an important resistance level and out of a large consolidation phase, confirming to many observers that the bull market is alive and well and perhaps ready to accelerate. Intrepid longer-term traders can hope to capitalize on a leveraged basis through the futures, but will the exchanges, specifically » Read the full article
A small, elegant pattern on the hourly chart points to a hidden pivot at 1.1024 which can be bottom-fished. A buy at 1.1025 with a stop at 1.1019 would risk a theoretical $75 per contract. If the yen moves substantially lower, it should find support at a hidden pivot of 1.0903. ______ UPDATE (07:42 a.m. EST): We were filled on our 1.1025 order, after which the market bounced to as high as 1.1036. We had time to move stops to breakeven, but profit potential was small, so let’s call the trade a wash. The D target and subsequently the round number of 1.1000 were breached, suggesting that the 1.0903 midpoint pivot from a large daily pattern is now in play.
The Euro has been frozen in a narrow range for the last half-day, as if gathering energy for a move. It is hovering just below a cluster of external highs on the hourly chart, meaning that the already-bullish tone of this market could intensify quickly. A print above the highest of these, at 1.3840, would not only be very bullish but would cancel two daily patterns with targets at 1.3398 and 1.3344. Until and unless that happens, committed Euro bears have something to shoot for. ______ UPDATE (01:27 a.m. EST, Feb 18): Committed Euro bears carried the day. The beleaguered currency failed to take out any of its key hourly highs and instead plunged to a level near its low for the big move that began above $1.50. The targets below $1.34 were not reached but remain in play.
Miner Aurcana Doing Many Things Right
by Rick Ackerman on February 19, 2010 6:09 am GMT · 4 comments
I’ve just returned from Mexico, where I was the guest of Aurcana Corp. (OTC: AUNFF), a Vancouver-based mining company. The firm owns the La Negra mine in Maconi, a small town about five hours by car from Mexico City, and the Shafter silver mine in Southwest Texas. Although this was my first underground tour, the group of eleven that I was with included some seasoned denizens of the precious-metals netherworld. There were mining-industry analysts and investors from Canada and the U.S., several bullion-oriented gurus » Read the full article