Subtle Signs Gold’s Correction Is Over

The technical evidence was subtle, but gold appeared to have its best day in months on Thursday. The night before, we had told subscribers to brace for a new wave of selling that would bring the April Comex contract down to at least $1073, exactly $23 below the previous day’s settlement price. When the dust had settled, however, the futures had fallen no lower than $1088 – off a mere $8 from the previous day’s close. Moreover, the reversal from the day’s lows was swift and decisive, leaving April Gold at $1108 by day’s end, $20 off the lows. Most encouraging of all, however, was that the bounce came precisely from a “Hidden Pivot midpoint,” and that it ultimately blew past two resistance peaks on the hourly chart without pausing for breath.  Taken together, these telling technical signs offer the most encouraging evidence of bullion’s resurgence that we’ve seen since Comex gold reached a record-high $1227.50 on December 3.

The chart above shows why we have turned optimistic after ten weeks of carefully calculated skepticism. The red line tracks the price movement we had expected yesterday – a nasty selloff to at least 1073.20. Instead, the futures got exactly halfway to the target and then reversed sharply (green line).  Furthermore, when the rally subsequently exceeded two prior peaks on the hourly chart without a pullback, it demonstrated that it was not just a feint higher, but the beginning of a strong new trend.

A Weak Correction

According to the Hidden Pivot method, this is exactly what should occur when a corrective cycle ends. This correction began on December 3 from within four ticks of a $1227.50 target that we had projected several weeks ahead of the turn. In normal fashion, the corrections until yesterday had traced out ABCD patterns that either reached or exceeded their D targets. However, this most recent ABCD downtrend failed to reach ‘D’, reversing exactly halfway to the target. And that is precisely what we expect a correction to do when the dominant trend is about to resume.

We should like to see this pattern repeated fractally in minor time-frames for the next couple of days before we sound the all-clear. However, based on the evidence at hand, we are recommending cautious buying at these levels, using the “camouflage” entry strategies that are at the heart of the Hidden Pivot method. For more information about this proprietary trading technique, click here for seven days’ free access to all of the services available to Rick’s Picks subscribers.

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)