Thursday, May 27, 2010

They’re At It Again…

– Posted in: Rick's Picks

At 1:20 a.m. EDT, DaBoyz had bears seriously on the ropes. The E-mini S&Ps were up 12.25 points -- the equivalent of a 100-point rally in the Dow -- but even more menacing was the fact that the so-far high, 1075.75, exceeded by a full point the highest target one could have projected using the lesser charts. It was unclear whether there was news driving the mania, but if so it would have to be something very perversely "bullish," such as a nuclear attack on South Korea, or word of a huge methane buildup in the Gulf of Mexico.

GOOG – Google (Last:493.46)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

Google has labored mightily to hold above the May 6 low at 460, but it looks like the stock will need to come down a bit more, to at least 453.90, to make a durable bottom.  We haven't traded the stock in a while, but we'll want to buy some shares if and when the stock falls to the target. It's possible to nail the swings within about 20 cents when we are trading off the 15-minute chart, but in this case I've used 180-minute bars to project the swing low.  Under the circumstances, I've set an alert so that we can try to use camouflage if and when this bottom-fishing opportunity materializes. ______ UPDATE:  Cancel the order, since Google is on a flight of fancy that projects to at least 500.75.

CLM10 – June Crude (Last:71.57)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

A query concerning July Crude during Wednesday morning's weekly webinar elicited a bearish forecast that calls for a further drop of about $13 on top of the $12 decline that has already occurred since the last rally peak in early May near $90.   The actual target, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, lies at 56.68, and if it is reached, the futures will have fallen nearly 37% in just three weeks.  The target comes from the weekly chart, where A=117.28 in September 2008.

SIN10 – July Silver (Last:18.250)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The futures did everything we asked of them yesterday and more.  A little ABC pointed most immediately to at least 18.430, but the key to price action over the near term lies at 18.795, a midpoint resistance whose breach on a closing basis would signal more upside to as high as 20.170 (hourly chart, A=17.080 on May 5).  I'll stipulate a two-day close above that number to be doubly sure it's dead.  Unfortunately, there were no easy handholds for nightowls shortly after midnight EDT.

GCQ10 – August Gold (Last:1217.80)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

The 1261.80 target that I alluded to in today's commentary is the Hidden Pivot sibling of a midpoint resistance at 1214.90 that was also mentioned. The provenance of both of these numbers is shown in the accompanying chart, and although the rally pattern is a little too obvious to be considered ideal, it looks good enough for predictive purposes.  Night owls will not easily find camouflage, since the uptrend is entering its fifth straight day, but you might try boarding on whatever pullback -- the briefer the better -- occurs following a feint above  the 1222.30 peak labeled in the chart.

ESM10 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1068.75)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We should tone down the hooting and guffawing for the moment, since  the futures did manage to poke their ornery little snout above Friday's and Monday's highs before heading south yesterday.  This left a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, and even though the pullback was continuing into the night, DaBoyz will have strong seasonality (i.e., Memorial Day weekend) in their favor if they should wish to turn things around on Thursday.  The good news for bears  is that buyers were unable to capitalize on a truncated but still powerful impulse leg that occurred with two hours left to go in yesterday's session.

Wall Street Keeps the Laughs Coming

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

The action on Wall Street is starting to remind us of Harlem Globetrotters shtick. Yesterday’s comic show conjured up Meadowlark Lemon at the free-throw line:  He pumps once, he pumps twice, then he sends the ball arcing toward the basket. Half-a-dozen guys leap for the rim, only to see the ball, which has been tethered to Meadowlark’s finger by an elastic cord, snap back into his hand. Something like that occurred yesterday on the NYSE, where stocks opened on a vaulting arc, only to be hauled back down to earth in mid-flight. Although the Dow had been up about 135 points in the early going, by day’s end it was trading off 70 points. The bullish segment of this raucous little burlesque appears to have been inspired by some tarted-up data that reflected supposed strength in the housing market. Yeah, sure. As for the selloff and eventual 220-point reversal, there was no obvious reason for it.  Our take is that the elaborate hoax that has cajoled stocks higher since March 2009 has grown too tiresome to fool even some of the people some of the time. There is still Kudlow on the buy side, of course, and perhaps a handful of solvent bears covering shorts whenever “good” news threatens to trigger a squeeze. But that’s about it, and whatever newsworthy excuse might arise on a given day to goose and goad the fearful and the clueless into acquiring shares, the effect is growing more and more muted each day, a diminuendo for the hubris of the late, great Financial Age. August Gold Target We should note that bullion yesterday reflected none of the ambiguities that have caused stocks to trace out conniptions each day on their respective charts. Comex August Gold tacked $30 onto the previous day’s lows, and the futures