Tuesday, April 12, 2011

For the same technical reasons I've suggested high caution in Gold, we should be even moreso in Silver, considering how steeply it has rallied this year.  Although the selloff would have to hit 36.430 to turn the daily chart even mildly bearish, the hourly chart is already bearish enough, having generated no fewer than three impulsive downthrusts yesterday.  The current and last of them has yet to play out and just moments ago rallied above its initial point 'c' high.  As this pattern continues to develop, we should monitor it closely.  The most bullish thing that could possibly occur would be an upward, impulsive (on the 60m chart) thrust off the 'p' midpoint of the pattern, similar to the one shown.

Although the 1502.70 rally target given here earlier remains valid in theory, we'll shift our bias to bearish and turn cautious, since yesterday's low exceeded a 1461.40 Hidden Pivot support by $1.40.  This is a negative development, and its implications would become still moreso if any minor, uptrending abc corrections fail either at their Hidden Pivot midpoint or at a 'd' target.  Sellers would renew themselves and take on additional energy if 1452.50 is exceeded to the downside today.

The June contract bulldozed the 1.4384 resistance shown in the chart, suggesting still higher prices to come.  Even so, we should be on the lookout for a possible stall at exactly 1.4496. That's the Hidden Pivot resistance of a lesser pattern, and it can also serve as a minimum upside projection for the next thrust.

I alluded to a 117^18 downside target yesterday, but it came from a tiny netbook screen that was difficult to read. Using my desktop monitor, I now find that the actual number is 117^31, a Hidden Pivot support that has been slightly exceeded. Accordingly, and for purposes of developing a useful forecast, we should allow for the possibility that this bottom at 117^28 could turn out to be an important one.  The inference would be further strengthened by a thrust today exceeding a 119^05 peak made last Thursday on the way down.  As of yesterday's close, the futures were working on a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart with the following coordinates: A=118^01, B=118^20, and C=?  If you're looking to jump aboard at whatever 'X' may form, I'd suggest finding camouflage on the five-minute chart.

Two pivots just below the floor of Monday's modest damage suggest that bottom-fishing could be attempted with relatively little risk.  The hidden supports lie, respectively, at 1313.75 and 1313.25, so I'll advise bidding 1313.75 with a 1.00-point stop-loss.  Looking at a somewhat bigger picture, there is nothing to say -- at least, nothing that would allow for anything so bold or presumptuous as a trend forecast.  The futures have been flatlining for two weeks, unable thus far to push above either hidden or structural resistances near 1337. 1.00_______ UPDATE (10:28 p.m. EDT):  A 1313.75 low held tonight for more than an hour, but the feeble, 2.25-point bounce that ensued was not quite sufficient to "cover" the  1.00-point stop-loss we used to initiate the position.  Our theoretical loss was $50, but we've  at least determined that there is probably more weakness to come.

[The essay below by Cam Fitzgerald, a frequent contributor to Ricks Picks, is a stark reminder that humanity could soon be facing problems even more serious than the collapse of the global economy.  The alarming die-off of honey bees and other cross-pollinators may presage nothing less than the devastation of food supplies around the world.  A beekeeper himself, Cam warns that, unlike global warming, which is happening slowly, the death of bee colonies has been so precipitous that a solution needs to be found and implemented as quickly as possible, lest  the food chain suffer catastrophic damage. Although a pesticide called Clothianidin is suspected, we don’t have time for endless political debate, he warns. Time is running out, and that is why I would urge readers to spread awareness of the problem by disseminating this commentary as far and wide as possible. RA] Rick has invited me to contribute an article discussing my views of how the world will look in the coming years. I am afraid I have very, very bad news for everyone though. My story is not science-fiction nor is it conjecture and yet it has drawn me to a very sad conclusion following events over the past few years. The issue that follows has ramifications that may even suggest the eventual collapse of society itself. Let me explain. In the latter part of the 1800’s a novel new chemical was developed called DDT. This synthetic chemical’s true calling and use was not realized, though, until sometime around the Second World War when a Swiss chemist named Paul Hermann Mueller first discovered its properties as an effective insecticide. He won the Nobel Prize for his efforts. The chemical found widespread use in agriculture and in the control of malaria-bearing mosquitoes, and for decades was one of the major means of pest