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COMMENTARY for Friday
TODAY'S ACTION for Friday
Rick's Picks for Friday
The 1371.00 rally target given here yesterday remains valid, even if the stall that I’d guaranteed precisely at its sibling midpoint, 1359.00, missed by two ticks. (Friday morning update: Now missed by one tick, since today’s high so far is 1358.75.) I’ve checked the 3-minute chart in search of ‘camo’ opportunities for night owls, but as of around 7:20 p.m. there didn’t appear to be enough subtlety in the upthrusts to give us the edge we typically look for.
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I’m not going to venture too far out on a limb with predictions for this rabid animal as it takes the measure of a $50 “barrier” that perhaps too many traders expect to be so challenging. If I were the rabid animal, just to make a point, I’d pop through $50 on a Friday, then leave the precious metals world hanging in suspense by closing $1 to $2 above it for the weekend. In any event, once the midpoint resistance at 49.670 flagged here earlier falls, its sibling ‘D’ target at 54.725 will be waiting for us with open arms.
If you’re betting against the dollar, it looks like you’ll have the wind at your back down to at least 72.26, a Hidden Pivot support whose provenance is shown in the chart. Judging from the way sellers bombed another, far more important, one at 73.51, I wouldn’t count too heavily on a big bounce from 72.26, even if it might suffice for scalpers. A major target at 68.36 is unlikely to be reached without an intervening, strong upthrust, but evidence continues to mount that it will indeed be achieved.
A Hidden Pivot at 1534.30 flagged here earlier is pulling the futures lower, along with a secondary target (shown) at 1532.70. Camouflage is called for if bottom-fishing, so start looking for the turn on the 5-minute (or less) chart from 1535.80 on down. If these supports give way easily and, heaven forbid, the futures close below them, the next stop would likely be 1500.00, the ‘D’ target of the large pattern shown. Night owls could also use a 1520.30 target to bottom-fish — without camouflage. A four-tick stop-loss should suffice. Want to learn how to do this stuff yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on June 6-7.
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There are numerous bearish patterns we can use to project a potentially important low, but the one that I like most has three single-bar coordinates, all sharply etched. They produce a 358.38 ‘D’ target, and although I cannot guarantee that will be where the carnage ends, it would most surely be worth bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss. My best-case scenario implies that the low was made yesterday at 390.63, just 0.59 points from the ‘D’ target shown in lavender. To take the offensive, bulls would need to push this vehicle to 422.47 by Thursday.
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Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The next Hidden Pivot Webinar will be held this June 6th - 7th. This two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. For more information, or to register, click here.
Wherein Gary North Rallies My Deflationist Side…
by Rick Ackerman on April 29, 2011 12:53 am GMT · 106 comments
Just when I thought it was safe to set the Hyperinflation vs. Deflation debate on autopilot, along comes Gary North with a smugly condescending essay posted at lewrockwell.com that put my name in the headline and unspoken words in my mouth: “Rick Ackerman Defects to the Hyperinflationists Camp After 30 Years.” Not so fast, Gary. I’d still back anyone with a good deflation argument, of which there are many, and I can still take the deflationist side of the debate against you or anyone else without fear of getting pushed around. Nor will I ever be comfortable sitting in the same pew as Liro Gonzala, Jim Willie and a few other inflationistas who go “all-in” every time someone even mildly contradicts them. And just because I was impressed with FOFOA blogspot’s hyperinflation arguments is no reason to infer that I cannot find holes in them. Even he doesn’t claim to have a crystal ball, or that the debate is over. » Read the full article