April 2011

Take a gander at the chart accompanying today's DXY tout if you want to see how nasty it could get for the US dollar before it finds a support capable of arresting the long-term bear, at least for a while.

A Hidden Pivot at 47.415 is equivalent to the one I furnished for today in SLV, the silver ETF.  Anything above it would portend more strength to the 48.040 target given here earlier.  The midpoint resistance associated with the lower target is 45.815, and it is a bullish sign that it has been exceeded tonight by 15 cents on first contact

We're using a 1581.20 target for the next 7-10 days, but more immediately a Hidden Pivot at 1529.40 discovered during yesterday's tutorial session should serve as a minimum short-term price objective.  Two lesser pivots at 1509.50 and 1518.70 also remain valid and should be used to gauge trend strength.  As always, a decisive move through a pivot should be taken as a sign that the next is in play.

Because the markets were closed on Good Friday, trading touts and commentary will next be updated over the weekend for Monday's edition.  To all of you who celebrate Easter, I wish you a joyous holiday.

We briefly entertained the notion that the Dollar Index, for whatever arcane reason, might be bottoming at 74.48, a crystal-clear Hidden Pivot support. Alas, the support has crumpled after a not-very-impressive rally, proving that garbage is garbage and notwithstanding whatever byzantine theories have been employed to suggest that the dollar was due to strengthen. That said, this flotsam will have a chance to turn from 73.51, a major Hidden Pivot that appears all but guaranteed to produce some sort of bounce. Currency traders take heed -- and of course avoid long positions in other than dollars if and when the target is reached. One final note:  A lesser Hidden Pivot at 73.82 could produce a bounce .

The ease with which this killer shredded a Hidden Pivot resistance at 43.32 yesterday, stopping us out of some puts for small change, suggests bulls will continue to dominate. If so, look for an easy ascent to 46.29 (see inset), a Hidden Pivot tied to a midpoint resistance at 44.72.  If that last number is exceeded by 0.05 or more, assume the higher target will be achieved with little strain.

A Hidden Pivot at 1347.75 (see inset) looks like the next stop for this Ship of Fools, and it became more likely when the futures spiked through the target's midpoint sibling at 1319.00.  Shortly after midnight there were no useful coordinates to use for camouflage because the June contract flatlined after opening the night session on a short-squeezed gap.

[I alluded here earlier to a class of investable assets with the potential to grow in value more spectacularly, even, than gold or silver. In the guest commentary below, my friend Tom McCafferty, a commodity trader and author of numerous books, makes the case for Canadian farmland as the best place to sock away money for your grandchildren. Obviously, this would require more capital than you might sink into precious metals or stocks. But, as Tom puts it, if you’ve got “a couple of million” to spare, this is arguably a very good place to bury it. RA] If you’re worried about the economy your children, grandchildren and even your great grandchildren will inherit, there is an investment that has the potential to help all three generations.  It should even be rewarding in your life-time as well. I’m talking about Canadian farmland.  Not the beautiful mountains along the coasts, but the real, dirt farming, i.e. wheat, corn, oats, sunflowers, soybeans, sorghum, barley, etc., in the center of the country.  But first things first:  Why Canada? Global Warming—no matter whether it is caused by carbon dioxide or natural time cycles, the growing seasons in the higher climates is getting longer.  The yield of prime exporting crops, such as corn and soybeans, are getting better as faster than the climate is rising. Water—Canada has plenty, unlike India and China.  And it is clean water.  Ever wonder why China put so much effort into controlling Tibet?  The five major rivers that supply water to China originate in little old Tibet.  When you read that China is importing more and more soybeans, they are actually importing water.  And water, unlike oil, cannot be economically moved—imported or exported—from one country to another.  It can only be used where it is.  In the years to come,

Because even some precious-metal bulls seem concerned that silver has come too far too fast, we took a close look at Comex futures, Silver Wheaton shares, and the ETF.. What we found was that the strong uptrends in each are showing little strain. Moreover, because their respective rally targets in charts of larger degree are well above current levels, there appeared to be little danger to the long-term bull's health. Rather than worry about the occasional, nasty downdraft, we should simply monitor the lesser trends for signs of the minor correction that could turn ugly.