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From the monthly archives:
July 2011
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October Sugar is closing on a 33.60 target first advertised here when the futures were trading around 27. That’s quite a move, but given the clarity of the pattern that has pushed it this far, it seems highly doubtful that the rally will get past our number without a major correction. Traders should also heed the possibility of a trend reversal from as low as 32.72, a secondary ‘D’ target shown in the chart.
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We’ve been treating the debt-limit donnybrook on Capitol Hill as a joke, just like everything else that goes on in Washington, but it now seems more than remotely possible that the issue could turn gravely serious. Even allowing for the usual brinksmanship, it’s hard to imagine what concessions either side might make at this point that would be significant enough to break the logjam. For its part, Moody’s – as big a laughing stock as D.C. politicians since the Great Financial Collapse of 2008-09 – has put America’s AAA credit rating “on review” for a possible downgrade, sending the dollar into spasms late Wednesday afternoon. Of course, there’s no way in hell Moody’s would actually downgrade U.S. credit, since that would trigger financial Armageddon. Consider the mayhem that downgrades have already caused in Europe, where credit spreads for the PIIGs have widened as much as 250 basis points over German bundts. This has put the PIIGs in a financial death spiral that all the official happy-talk in the world can no longer counteract. » Read the full article
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Pelosi Endorsement of GOP Plan Makes Us Very Afraid
by Rick Ackerman on July 15, 2011 1:35 am GMT · 67 comments
Shouldn’t we be very afraid when Nancy Pelosi thinks she can live with Mitch McConnell’s deficit reduction plan? Actually, it’s worse than that: What Pelosi in fact said is that anyone rooting for an increase in the debt ceiling should be saying “bravo to Senator McConnell.” Uh-oh. Somehow, “bravo” wasn’t the word that sprang to our lips when this story crossed the wire. Nor are we even sure which side to take, since both parties were poker-faced yesterday on the matter of just what it is that they think they might be able to agree upon. It would also appear that taking the side we had thought House Speaker Boehner was on – “More taxes? Over my dead body!” (or something to that effect) – may no longer be an option. How could it be after Mr. Obama has invested so much time and energy demagoguing the filthy rich – i.e., anyone making more than $250k? At times like this, we look to Sen. Harry Reid to point the way…so that we can bolt in the opposite direction. Again, no clues. The Nevada senator continued to vilify House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, stopping just short of insinuating that Cantor’s mother may have worked in a Mexican brothel and that Cantor himself might have just one testicle. But that was just Reid being Reid. With respect to the political football, he did what he always does: wrap himself in the flag, the better to warn that GOP stubbornness is threatening to halt Social Security checks, veterans benefits and paychecks to our troops. » Read the full article