Tuesday, August 30, 2011

USU11 – September T-Bond (Last:137^22)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A midpoint support at 136^25 has been violated by half-a-point, suggesting more downside  awaits to 134^09.  Accordingly, we should try to get short near the 137^28 midpoint resistance of the retracement pattern shown.  Entry should be via camouflage only, based on the first bearish abc that occurs on the 15m chart or less. Please note that if the futures push higher without correcting to suit our needs, the logical rally target would be 139^11.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1207.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Voracious buyers chomped through resistance near 1200 so easily yesterday that we can only infer the futures are headed for the 1241.00 target shown.  Camouflage buying opportunities will be tough to find, considering the steepness of the rally, but if the future should pull back to the 1176.25 midpoint of our rally pattern, that's where I would suggest looking. More immediately, the night session high at 1210.0o precisely equals a Hidden Pivot resistance derived from the hourly chart (A=1111.25 (8/21, 8:30 p.m.), B=1188.50, and C=1132.75) so any movement above it, even slight, would augur further progress toward 1241.00. That would be reason to seek out bull trades aggressively for the next 25 or so points.  One caveat:  a minor hidden resistance at 1215.00.

Wild and Crazy Markets = Big Opportunity

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

[Our longtime friend Tom McCafferty, a veteran commodity trader and author of numerous books on the subject, knows a thing or two about making hay when stocks and commodities turn volatile. In the essay below, he explains why the markets have been so nervous lately.  Fortunately, in the violent swings that have been occurring from day to day and week to week, he sees the trading opportunities of a lifetime. RA] Recently, Rick did some of that great technical analysis he is known for, and after he studied the formation the bones made on his sacred cloth and cut open a few toads to check their entrails, he came to the conclusion that the Dow Industrial Average is headed for a bull rally.  Next we took a look at the fundamentals – the European banking situation, upheaval in Africa, labor problems and loss of competitive edge in China, the U. S. job and housing markets—and we grew very bearish.  In other word, today’s Market is like a Joyce poem: you can read into it just about whatever you want. We become further confused when we see so many strong companies sitting on tens of billions of dollars, and, at the same time, they are laying off staff.  With their fat bankbooks, there are just too many of them striving to get leaner and meaner.  On top of that, quarterly earnings are pretty damned good.  We needed a good reason for this behavior. Then it dawned on us.  It was so simple we were embarrassed.  The whole world is suffering for a “Compliancy Complex.”  You will not find that dysfunction described in any medical textbook, but we know in our heart of hearts what it is.  There is just too much unexplainable information overwhelming us at one time, to wit: •          

SIZ11 – December Silver (Last:40.960)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The long-term outlook for silver is very bullish, with the three-year pattern projecting to 73.720.  The sharp decline in May this year has produced several patterns which have been confirmed and then broken without a single midpoint being reached.  The latest in this series of false alarms has a midpoint of 35.700 and a D target of 27.105.  With silver trading just under $41, nearby levels to watch include 42.430 and 39.110.  These two are midpoint pivots where tradeable reversals might be expected.  (Posted by Doug "harry" McLagan)

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1795.40)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

In the 1970s, gold rallied sixfold and then pulled back by almost half, yielding a large-scale D target in the area of $262. Practitioners of hidden pivotry, had they existed at the time, would have been well served by a tight stop, given that the price went, oh, about six hundred dollars higher. After surpassing $262, the chart curved up toward vertical. Gold's current bull market seems to have done the same thing recently. The largest structure of the last ten years, with the BC leg occurring in 2008, gave us a D target of $1460. During the last ten months or so, the market approached that target warily, popped through it, returned to it, and after a rally took one more shot at it. Since that low on July 1, however, the turn toward vertical seems to have begun in earnest. What to make of the $200+ decline last week? If you answered "a BC leg," congratulations. The obvious A point was on July 1, and the pattern is active with a D target of 2142.30. The midpoint comes in at 1923.80, just above the all-time high which serves as our B point. The pullback is itself a bearish impulse wave, but it has already retraced by more than half, meaning that a decline to its midpoint of 1735.30 would leave the larger bullish pattern intact. Follow-through all the way to the bearish D target of 1629.00 could happen, of course, but don't hold your breath for that. Traders should play any approach to 1735.30 from the long side, using appropriate Hidden Pivot tactics. We'll zoom in further starting tomorrow. (Posted by Doug "harry" McLagan)