Thursday, February 2, 2012

With detailed charts, I've taken pains in today's touts to show where the easiest opportunities may lie for getting long in Gold and/or Silver. There are incipient camouflage set-ups in each, but a stress-free entry may require close attention to an 'X' trigger that could come up quickly once a potential C low is formed.  The bar for diligence will likely be lower for any such attempts made in after-hours trading.  Click here to learn more about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar and to obtain a $50 discount.

Two bullish targets are likely to draw the futures higher in the days ahead:  1771.50, given here earlier; and 1799.50, which comes from a somewhat higher B-C pairing.  As noted here earlier, the best chance we'll have for getting long via camouflage could come from a pullback -- the more fleeting, the better for us -- from somewhere in between the two numbered peaks. ______ UPDATE (11:07 p.m. EST) A pullback has commenced from 1763.80, between the two numbered peaks. I'd suggest waiting for the pattern to develop a legit B-C pullback on the 240-minute chart before trying to 'camo' your way aboard on the lesser charts.  Please keep in mind that B-C does not become manifest until the 'x' entry trigger occurs.

March Silver appears to be building thrust for a shot at 35.535, the 'D' target of the pattern shown in the thumbnail mini-inset.  The 34.235 midpoint resistance that would need to be surpassed first is above Tuesday's spike high, so we'll  need to make our move below that level, camouflage-style, if we're going to get aboard with a minimum of stress. For that purpose, I suggest leveraging a B-C pullback from just above the obscure, look-to-the-left peak at 34.030 shown in the larger chart.  The 'X' entry trigger could come up quickly, so a state of nimble alertness may be the key to getting executed. _______ UPDATE (11:30 a.m. EST):  An enticing camouflage setup did indeed form on the pullback from just above 34.030. Since a chat-roomer has reported a fill based on my numbers, I'm establishing a tracking position herewith. Referencing the 3-minute chart, there was a picture-perfect B-C retracement from just above the 34.030 'external' peak I'd flagged. Here are the coordinates: A=33.770 at 10:09 a.m. EST, B=34.085 at 10:24, and C= 33.950 at 10:33. All three are single-bar, yielding an X entry trigger at 34.030. P=34.110, and D=34.265 ( a pivot that held bulls back for about 20 minutes, but which has bullishly given way).  Since 'D' of the camo pattern has been reached, you should be holding 25% of the original position, half of it having been exited at 34.110 (P), and another 25% at 34.265 (D). Assuming a single contract remains, and imputing to it paper profits so far, its effective cost basis would be 33.635. For now, use a fixed stop-loss predicated on the futures creating a bearish impulse leg on the 3-minute chart. As of this moment, that would imply an unpaused down-leg exceeding an external low at 33.950 recorded this morning at

Yours truly was putting out fires yesterday when Goldman vaulted past the 113.23 target I'd drum-rolled. I queried the chat room and no one appears to have bought puts, but if you did please let me know so that I can establish a tracking position. My hunch is that we'll get a better chance to short this pig, since, when it shot past the pivot, it showed a magnetic attraction to the 118.07 peak recorded in October.  To make our effort to get short fun,  I'm going to suggest getting long while we wait to get short. (This is probably what I should have suggested in the first place, since the 113 target had allowed plenty of upside.) I see no set-it-and-forget strategies for doing so at the moment, but you should stay tuned in case Goldman stumbles and give us an easy entry opportunity. _____ UPDATE (10:36 a.m. EST): Far from giving us an easy entry opportunity, Goldman has been short-squeezed sharply higher today on an opening-bell gap. This is all to the good for us, however, since it raises the prospect of a shorting opportunity near 120.70, a Hidden Pivot that is coming into focus.   At that price, the stock will have rallied 42% from the October low at 84 -- quite an achievement for the scumbuckets who have manufactured this last-gasp opportunity to distribute their shares!

We shouldn't let our personal reaction to all of the lies and folly emanating from Europe color our outlook for the euro. What matters most, at least for the moment, is perceptions of the bailout, notwithstanding the fact that everyone "knows" there is not a chance in a hundred that it will work. From a purely technical standpoint, the euro signaled blithe acceptance of whatever deal is forthcoming on Greece when it impulsed bullishly  above a 1.3224 peak  on Monday. The subsequent correction was vicious, but it left a target at 1.3331 that lies well above these levels.  The relevant rally pattern is shown in the accompanying chart, and it'll be a lock if and when the futures push decisively above the 1.3179 midpoint resistance.  Click here to learn how to do this kind of analysis competently yourself.  Isn't it time you kissed your guru goodbye?

Natural Gas futures were trading for around 3.58 in November when we projected a possible bear-market low at $2.30. Imagine our excitement when, ten days ago, on January 23, the March futures contract trampolined from within exactly 1.6 cents of our target, shattering the despair and deathly calm of a relentless, multiyear sinking spell that had not seen respite since last spring. The initial leap was enormous, to 2.63, and anyone who bought down around the target would have reaped a $3400 profit per contract on the first day of the move. We had prepared subscribers for a potentially tradable bounce, reiterating our contrary stance on January 12 with this advice:  The futures were barely able to muster a dead-cat bounce on that last effort.  Even so, the 2.305 will remain a good place to try bottom-fishing aggressively with our habitual penny-ante stop-loss. At the time, the futures had been falling, falling, falling, but they were still well above our target, trading around 2.80. However, the next week saw them plunge, kamikaze-style, precisely to the Hidden Pivot support where we had anticipated a turn. In tracking our own recommendations, we never assume subscribers are making money merely because a trade that we advised triggered. In this case, a subscriber reported in the Rick’s Picks chat room (click here to access this 24/7 service free for a week) that he had indeed bought some contracts at the 2.30 target. And so we established a “tracking position” to guide him and any other subscribers who had caught the low.  In the ensuing days, the steep rally continued, peaking on January 26 at $2.84. At that point, each contract purchased would have racked up gains of about $5400 before commissions. We advised partial-profit taking that effectively reduced the cost basis on the 25%