Pumped Stocks Have Yet to Glimpse GDP Slowdown

Stocks were struggling to get airborne late Sunday night after dive-bombing the tarmac Friday on news that the U.S economy had created a measly 120,000 jobs last month. Index futures traded just briefly on Good Friday before electronic markets closed at 9:15 a.m. for the holiday, but that was long enough for DaBoyz to take stocks down to fire-sale levels on near-zero volume. The E-Mini Dow futures plummeted 120 points in less than two minutes, setting the glum tone when trading resumed Sunday evening. However, our hunch is that shares will not go much lower on the opening, since the dirtballs who work the night shift are so good at shaking down the rubes on ostensibly bad news.  We say “ostensibly” because, for every trader who was disappointed that the alleged economic recovery appears to be losing steam, there were undoubtedly others who saw a new excuse for yet more Fed easing.

A cynical calculation, to be sure, since everyone understands by now that even though the central banks have been running wide open for years, it is not benefiting employment, only stocks. Not that Wall Street cares.  Who needs jobs when it’s possible to promote runaway asset inflation with less effort and at a fraction of the cost?  Granted, that’s not the way Mr. Obama and his supporters on Capitol Hill would prefer it, since higher share prices alone are unlikely to fool voters come November. But for the time being, a rampaging stock market still holds the promise of reviving job creation and perhaps even of causing home prices to start recovering.

We see neither happening, implying that the stock market could be on shaky ground. For even as Q1 earnings estimates have come down, down, down, the broad averages have barely paused for breath since late November. Something’s got to give, and we think it will be share prices as it becomes clearer that first quarter GDP will be well under the 2% threshold the spinmeisters need to maintain the pretense that things are improving. Some of the smartest financial advisors we know are betting the figure will come in at around 1%, and they have heavily positioned their clients in Treasury paper to take advantage of this. From a technical standpoint, their logic will be hard to argue with if  the price of the 10-Year Treasury Note pops above late February’s high.  Note in the chart above that the June futures were close to this threshold Sunday night, just as stocks were potentially setting up for an avalanche once DaBoyz’ short-term shenanigans have run their course.

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  • Steve April 10, 2012, 5:24 am

    Seems like a lot of opinions about absolute immunity in office, except for High Crimes, which are first punished by the legislative body against said Man with immunity in office. Then there is the application of Master/ Servant Law under the 14th voluntary political act, a.k.a. 14th amendment creating equal corporate character at the federal union of states, where once stood several States in union. In normal times the Sheriff is the highest authority in any and all counties, the states themselves not having original jurisdiction in matters under the Common Law, as an absolute distinction to the legislative acts, or common law of the judicial branch which is now called ‘precedent’ law.

    Everyone herein has been screwed over because the meaning of words has be supplanted by the tyranny of democracy. Common Law means the Mosaic Law. But, common law, means the legislative process of the courts in establishing precedent law were the Constitution does not play, but; contract and Roman Civil Law do. These are the ordinance of men, which passed 2000 years ago to be resurrected in the same abuses today.

    You will read my first paragraph and believe it is goop and unintelligable. But, the truth is what it is. Maybe by the second paragraph the best will grasp the shell game of changing the meaning of words.

    And finally, maybe the words of someone great ‘summarized’ will strike home “If one fails to know understand and exercise one’s rights One subjects one’s self to tyranny and so deserves.

    The great We deserves what is at hand and what is comming because there is no ‘exercise’, only complaint.

    I hope you get it; “the common law is the legislative precedent of the corporate administrative process of judicial legislation called ‘precedent’ wherein nothing new is judged against the Constitution, but against the Rule of Roman Law. The Common Law is the Mosaic Law that is Immutable. Under the Common Law trading in fiat is High Treason – period, end of subject. Under administrative ‘common law’ the masses in democracy can agree not to prosecute High Treason with money in agreement to Sin for illicit gain and unjust enrichment.

    The Rules are not the Law. A real Sheriff can only be overruled by the Medicial Examiner in deaths. A corporate sheriff is inferior to the legislative body that created the office under Roman Civil Law. A real Sheriff is a minister to the court, and an elected official over all court matters, the Common Law Supreme Court of the County – formerly the County Comission.

    Well, you get what a legislatively created slave sherif is, yes?

  • Bradley April 9, 2012, 10:45 pm

    GDXJ acting very poorly. Even with the spot price up today, it is weak. Higher energy prices are no help.
    Seems many prefer the “safety” of treasuries!
    If I’m not out after hours, I’ll likely be out tomorrow.
    Death by a thousand cuts doesn’t seem any better than the guillotine…

    • Mark Uzick April 9, 2012, 11:09 pm

      Just look at the VIX today; fear helped gold a little, but it’s hell on the junior gold stocks. If SPY is stable tomorrow and if gold doesn’t drop too much, then GDXJ should have a nice rebound; if not, then my options may get stopped out.

  • Rich April 9, 2012, 8:51 pm

    Speaking of GDP and market slowdowns and showdowns,
    County Sheriffs, the last government bastion of our Constitutional protections, are being stripped of power by none other than the AG son of the Vice President:

    http://silversenator2012.blogspot.com/2012/04/fed-fusion-center-power-grab.html

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2012, 9:10 pm

      Are you serious? Usurping the constitution? A sheriff trying to make an arrest over a politicians rude behavior? Allowing politicians to be above the law? Never happened before?

      Just business as usual. No need to extrapolate that the end is here and tyranny will reign. Do you really believe the VP or his sons connection had anything to do with it. Imagine if he didn’t step in and they arrested the guy. The Democratic party would lose elections?

    • Mark Uzick April 9, 2012, 11:52 pm

      Gary, I don’t know if the end is immanent or here, but I can see that the USA is gradually starting to resemble a tyrannical empire, both at home and abroad. I believe it’s reversible, but I’m not certain whether enough Americans will have the will to do so.

      We apparently don’t have the will yet; things will have to get worse and the important question becomes: When time comes to deal with the consequences of our actions, will our better natures inform the way we deal with them or will we seek to avoid responsibility by looking for more scapegoats?

    • Rich April 10, 2012, 12:33 am

      Gary, re

      “No need to extrapolate that the end is here and tyranny will reign. Do you really believe the VP or his sons connection had anything to do with it.” (sic)

      Maybe if you read the link or post again?:

      “This time it is Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, sending out mandates to commissioners informing them that their sheriffs no longer have arrest powers.”

      If only this were business as usual since Delaware’s first Sheriff in 1689.

      Feds are clearly replacing civil law-enforcement with military Fusion Centers.

      People are beginning to wake up.

      Maybe you will turn bearish with the market downdraft?…

    • Mark Uzick April 10, 2012, 2:57 am

      Rich, since Beau Biden is a state Attorney General, wouldn’t it be considered at most a usurpation of the Delaware Constitution, not the US Constitution? or are the County Sheriffs’ powers protected by the US Constitution from state interference? (That seems wrong; they would just be protected by The Constitution from federal interference with the exception of enforcing compliance with The Bill Of Rights.)

      BTW: Sorry for the mis-spelling of “imminent” in my other comment; I didn’t mean to say anything theological.

  • Jill April 9, 2012, 4:15 pm

    Gary, thanks for posting your re-entry criteria for your long term positions, if you should end up exiting today.

    “Everyone here complained about the Fed propping up the economy so I find it hard to understand why there wasn’t any positive mention of the suspension of any QE, only cynicism.”

    With occasional exceptions, most of us humans tend to see what supports our pre-chosen position, and not what fails to support it. We are better at identifying with and holding tightly onto beliefs as if they are a life raft, than we are at determining our beliefs rationally.

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2012, 6:15 pm

      Yes I agree. In fact I too held such belief. I don’t know what one thing, or multitude of things, changed my betting psychology. Perhaps I realized that sensitivity to human suffering is a hindrance when playing the unemotional clinical markets. I have also been looking at a faily new theory, that I mentioned here before, called the Fibonacci Contracting Spiral”. It’s track record has been pretty impressive. It suggests the next top will be in 2013, followed by another one in 2016. If true, that suggests we don’t go straight down from here until 2020.

      Patterns in nature can be seen, and amazing so can human behavior.

  • gary leibowitz April 9, 2012, 3:45 pm

    When the government data comes out worse than expected, no one cries foul. As for the economic conditions ironically the bad news in the EU and China will keep commodity demand down. I expect a shakeout this year in most commodities. Gold and silver should fare better than most since it is still tied to the health and calamity of the world stage. All economic data so far has shown a nice rebound. The employment report was disconcerting in that hours worked dropped. The number of hired gets revised one month later, and I suspect it will be higher.

    Everyone here complained about the Fed propping up the economy so I find it hard to understand why there wasn’t any positive mention of the suspension of any QE, only cynicism.

    As for the health of the stock market, since most indices already broke out before this retracement I suspect it is a healthy pullback. My criteria for exiting the market are well known. If I close out my positions I would need a minimum of one month to decide to re-enter. Earning’s must hold up, retracement not lower than 1300 on the SPX, no overseas contagion that shows signs of affecting our domestic markets. I also expect a further shift into consumer staples.

    In fact if this is only another retracement the next stage calls for a 9 to 12 month rally, that being the last wave up. Since some nations are already experiencing hard contraction they should be the first ones entering the next great world depression. If so than we should be sucked in by sometime next year.

    Today’s action will tell me a lot about the strength of this economy. If the market does break down by the close than we could be starting a new bear cycle. The size and velocity of this down turn will be telling.

    This schizophrenic bear would love to see another year of stellar profits. It would make the next down turn so much easier to figure out.

    • Rick Ackerman April 9, 2012, 8:22 pm

      Suspension of QE? Yeah, sure. Then who, pray tell, is buying all those tons and tons of fresh U.S. debt? Answer: institutional biggies and primary dealers who can borrow money from the Fed for less than the interest they receive on Treasuries. This shell-game is transparent to most of those who post in this forum, although you seem to have overlooked it. It’s not something that Jill, your only ‘critic’ in here today, would have much thought about.

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2012, 8:48 pm

      Rick,
      Are you saying that they will be doing exactly the same whether they announce the QE program or not? No difference? No transparency to tell the two apart? The market wasn’t as confident as you when he made that announcement. I also believed he hedged his bet by stating if the market doesn’t take hold on its own he would step in. Is this all theater?
      I suppose the breakdown in the EU countries has no play in our dollar nor where money flows into? I find that hard to believe.

  • John Jay April 9, 2012, 2:50 pm

    The stock and bond markets and related derivatives are strictly trading vehicles and only relate to Joe Six Pack in so far as high bond prices mean cheap mortgages and 1% CDs. It is Las Vegas only with the IRS now having the casino report each roll of the dice and spin of the wheel, they have cost basis for each trade in the data base. Another plus to futures trading, less paper work at tax time.
    Off on a tangent, I was looking at Detroit housing on Realtor.com. I saw huge turn of the century mansions on sale for about 500k. One was the former estate of Mr. Briggs, of Briggs and Stratton I imagine. Built in 1914, very nice woodwork in the interior. I also saw a house for sale for $100 if you pay the three years back taxes of……..$6,000. Yes that’s right, $2,000 a year property taxes on a house that they admit is worth $100!
    Free houses if you pay the property taxes! Coming soon to a neighborhood near you! COG on the municipal level, you’ve got to admire the Monty Python School of Economics!

  • mac April 9, 2012, 12:17 pm

    Hello,
    The MSM is so full of lies. But ya, the Fed will pump QE again despite the talking heads telling us the US economy is blah, blah strong etc. It is not. Amazing how people just sit and take it – the lies, the wars, the falling standard of living, the estrangement of the genders….