ESZ09

A waft-ing we will go! With little apparent resistance from sellers, the futures are doing Tuesday night what they were unable to do earlier in the day -- i.e., float effortlessly higher. I am still guaranteeing a minimum 1113.00 for now, although I stop short of making this Hidden Pivot a hula number, since I don't want to become a regular amongst the Times Square weirdos. I've included a chart that provides a visual hint to bears of why it will be futile to resist. I see no camouflage opportunities for night owls, even on the one-minute chart, so long entries will probably have to be seat-of-the-pants.

Bears should prepare for more adversity to at least 1113.00.  That's a Hidden Pivot target lifted from the 30-minute chart (A=1012 on October 2), and it looks quite compelling to me. The logic and viability of this target was further enhanced by the pronounced stall on Friday precisely at the pattern's 1069.50 midpoint.

The futures looked like they were revving for a push to as high as 1084.00 when the week ended.  Instead, they had to settle for what passes for a cliffhanger these days -- an intraday recovery high at 1069.25 that exceeded the midpoint pivot by two ticks (see chart). The Hidden Pivot at 1084.00 can still serve as a minimum upside objective if the short squeeze continues, but keep in mind that a print at 1049.25 would turn the lesser charts bearish. _______ UPDATE:  The futures flounced their way up to 1084.00, there to lollygag for two hours before renewed short-squeeze pressure pushed them up to 1090.oo for the close. This means that shorts -- Will they ever learn? -- will begin Tuesday seriously on the ropes. 

The hourly chart leaves little room for conjecture, since a rally target at 1071.00 meets all the rules. The futures easily got past the 1055.00 midpoint pivot, implying the target is in-the-bag.  Assuming it is reached, any further projections will be based on how quickly the futures chew through it. However, if buyers act like this hidden resistance isn't there, my bias would turn moderately bullish -- an upgrade from my current, go-along bullishness.  Shorts from 1071.00 can use a stop-loss at 1072.25. _______ UPDATE (8:46 a.m.):  The rally went to 1069.50, and although the 1071.00 target is still valid in theory, I wouldn't advise trying to short "sloppy seconds". It is not a bullish sign that DaBoyz had to abandon this morning's sleazy short-squeeze project just shy of the target.

End-of-day histrionics turned a promising buying pattern into dreck yesterday, so we'll be starting from scratch this morning. Any buying we might have done would have offered limited upside, since all the action was, and still is, taking place within a larger downtrend. The futures would need to hit 1070.00 today or tomorrow to change that, turning the hourly chart bullish; otherwise we'll look for tortured descent to test early October's low, 1012.00. ______ UPDATE (11:30 p.m.):  Selling Wednesday night was pushing the futures down toward a 1040.75 midpoint support that can be bottom-fished with a 1.00-point stop-loss, but if it's hit look for the downtrend to continue to the 'D' target at 1033.75. The pattern shows nicely on the 5-minute chart -- and please note that it proceeds from a distinctive one-off 'A'. If the decline were to play out in accordance with the obvious 'A' at 1058.50, the respective midpoint and target would lie at 1039.25 and 1030.75. ________ FURTHER UPDATE (9:24 A.M.):  The correction played out to the lower pair of targets, producing an overnight low of 1039.00 that corresponded to the obvious A at 1058.50. Bottom-fishing 1040.75 would therefore have produced a trading loss of about $50.

When the bell brought a temporary end to yesterday's navel-gazing silliness, the futures appear to be headed up to 1048.25, a very modest objective that we can use for the moment as a minimum rally target. It would take an additional six ticks of upside, however, to surpass Monday's high and refresh the bullish trend on the intraday charts.  Alternatively, if the futures continue lower, a 1016.25 target mentioned here earlier would be the number to watch.

The futures were so intemperate and ill-behaved yesterday that there's little point, the night before, in my proffering a number to trade on.  They looked bound for 1016.25 most of the day (or 1012.75 if any lower), but the counterswings were too violent to give play to the targets, and even seekers of camouflage would have been challenged to find a safe entry spot. Today, it would take a thrust to 1070 -- a tick above last Tuesday's high -- to turn the hourly chart decisively bullish.

The futures looked to be struggling in vain to avoid a descent to 1012.75, the nearest obvious Hidden Pivot south of these levels.  The midpoint associated with that number is 1038.75, so any rally that gets near that number should be viewed as an opportunity to get short.  That would presumably be  accomplished at a retracement-rally midpoint or 'd' target, but you needn't be stingy with the stop-loss, since there'd be 26 points of potential profits in the offing.  The downside target would be invalidated by a big rally above 1064.00 (aka point 'C"), but bears should turn cautious on anything above 1048.00, since that would generate a robustly bullish impulse leg on the 10-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (9:56 a.m. EST): No spurprise so far this morning. The futures died after a feeble short squeeze to 1041.50.  If you shorted the opening, I'd suggest playing for a minimum 1024.75, the midpoint support of a pattern on the hourly chat begun from Friday's  day-session high, 1061.75.  A judicious stop-loss is needed, since DaSleazeballs are not going to let the futures sink easily, having been denied proper time on the opening to cheat, rob and plunder widows and pensioners.  

The rally may have looked impressive, but from a Hidden Pivot perspective it only just qualified as an impulse leg on the hourly chart, having exceeded the requisite one internal peak and one external.  The short k-A segment means the shallow pullback off the intraday high is a legit B-C leg, at least in theory, but there's limited value in projecting a target that would be based on a continuation of yesterday's probably unsustainable trajectory. Anyone looking to get long yesterday needn't have looked for camouflage, since, on the 15-minute chart, there were no false entry signals the entire way up. That's typical for all strongly trending days, and if you simply take every 'X' entry on the way up, it's hard to lose..