Mini S&P

Yesterday's bull trap created an impulse leg with immediate downside potential to 1210.00. The pattern is less than compelling but clear enough nonetheless to warrant bottom-fishing via camouflage at 1228.25.  That's the target's midpoint sibling, and it promises to at least blunt the onslaught begun from Thursday morning's fleeting high. Alternatively, on a bullish turn, camouflageurs could try leveraging a pullback from the 1246.75 peak labeled in the chart. _________ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST):  The 1228.25 support came within a single tick of nailing the overnight low, so I am establishing a tracking position for your further guidance.  Although a bid at 1228.25 would have just missed, the 'camo' pattern that followed the reversal we'd anticipated was absolute perfection on the 30-minute chart (A=1228.50, B=12432.75, C=1235.75). Entry was signaled at 1239.50, and profits taken on half the position (i.e., two contracts) at the p midpoint, 1243.00. The subsequent thrust to 'D' at 1250.25 fell two ticks shy of being a "winner," and so we hold two contracts with a cost basis of 1236.00. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1235.50 for now, but switch to a 4.00-point trailing stop on the single contract that would remain if 1267.00 is hit.  I am not recommending that you carry the position over the weekend, so if 1267.00 is reached in the final hour, take the money and run. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:53 a.m. EST):  The futures have wafted above our "winner" threshold at 1250.25, allowing us to exit a third contract and keep one with a paper profit-adjusted cost basis of 1228.75.  My short-term target is now 1259.25, implying that a too-tight 1.50-point trailing stop would be in effect from the so-far high at  1255.25.  My suggestion is to play it as you please, but to use a "structural" stop at 1246.50 whose

Shorts have turned catamite, allowing themselves to be brutalized and tormented no matter what the supposed news from Europe. The result has been a nervous dither beneath November's key highs that's looking increasingly like a consolidation. From a trading perspective, entering on any b-c pullback from somewhere between the two labeled highs looks like it can't miss. The buy-stop entry signal at 'x' is likely to come quickly, though, so you'll need to be alert to catch the opportunity.

All of the gurgly action of the last few days has taken place just beneath the external peak at 1270.75 recorded on November 14.  That makes the monster rally from 1147 suspect, since, having exceeded no prior peaks, it is not even impulsive on the daily chart. A minor upthrust from these levels would remedy that, but until such time as one occurs, and even in the wake of the recent 120-point explosion, the burden of proof properly rests with the bulls.

The last few rally patterns on the hourly chart have reached their 'D' targets, so the worst we should be right now, short-term, is neutral.  And yet, it's hard not to be rooting for the stock market to drop-the-hell-dead, since it will take nothing less than that to start Wall Street on the long, long road back to integrity.  Under the circumstances, and so that we don't come to the races on Tuesday with no horse to bet on, let me suggest using the 1241.00 target shown as a telltale whose breach would earn just a little respect for bears.  Bottom-fishing near 1241.00 using 'camouflage' is recommended, since a print at that price will be viewed by our competition as a breakdown beneath Friday's 1242.00 low. What do we care if we can test the water without getting wet.

We will watch a 1281.75 hidden pivot in the S&P futures, with an eye to shorting the market.  Last week's strong rally has not retraced deeply, but a one-off A from Wednesday (1183.00) and Friday's decline give us something to work with.  The 1281.75 midpoint is less than eight points below the three-month high of 1289.25 made in late October.  Absent a larger retracement which forces us to recalculate our targets, traders should use a stop not below 1282.75 in shorting this midpoint.  (Posted by Doug "harry" McLagan)

A day of tedium has not much altered the bullish projection given here yesterday.  Continue to use 1255.75 as a minimum upside target, but allow three more points, to 1258.75, if it's exceeded.  With the weekend fast approaching, I'll leave it to you to determine whether it's worth the trouble to immerse yourself in a potentially herky-jerky trading day. If you desire a simpler path, I'll suggest risking a 1259.50 stop-loss shorting the higher number. This would be a day trade, not a position to take home over the weekend.

An 1139.75 rally target disseminated here yesterday morning held for nearly five hours until a flurry of panicky short-covering on the close turned it into suet.  Use 1255.75 as an upside target for now, predicated on a push through its sibling midpoint at 1248.75.  There's no pretending we can find good camouflage after yesterday's rampage, but that could change if Wednesday night's action creates a price-bar forest of tedium from which we can extrapolate a microscopic but tradable A-B impulse leg. My suggestion to night owls looking to catch the next northbound express is to look for such an opportunity on charts of 10-minute degree or less.

There's little I can offer you today, since the futures spent most of yesterday correcting the weakest impulse leg I've seen since the last groin pull on Dancing With the Stars. In theory, the next pop higher would be to 1208.25, predicated on a breach of the Hidden Pivot's 1198.50 midpoint. In practice, you'll have to trade this one catch-as-catch-can using the pattern shown, unlikely as it is to hold. _______ UPDATE (10:34 a.m. EST):  With the Fed's commitment overnight to become the lender of last resort to the Western World, the futures have blasted into hyperdrive. The monster rally, amounting to about 410 Dow points so far, is at this moment inching toward a Hidden Pivot target at 1239.75 that could cap today's action.

I don't trust this rally any farther than I could heave an anvil, but if you look at the chart and pretend it belongs to a trading vehicle that you like -- gold, for instance -- the short-term outlook is undeniably bullish. Assuming the 1182.50 point 'C' bottom of the pattern shown holds, the next pop should reach 1205.75, a Hidden Pivot, or perhaps a secondary target at 1208.25 if it's exceeded.  More immediately, the futures will need to get past the 1194.25 midpoint resistance tied to the lower target. Camouflageurs looking to get long won't have much to work with, since the point 'B' of any micro-impulse leg you might use to do this would have to occur at exactly 1199.75.  The chart shows why.  ______ UPDATE (9:16 a.m. EST): The 1205.75 target caught the overnight top, 1206.00, within a single tick. The futures have since receded by a 13 points to a pre-opening low of 1193.00