The 20-point rally off yesterday’s lows must be judged a failure, since it couldn’t quite get by an 814.80 peak made earlier in the day. Now, to avoid a false alarm, let’s set the bar at 822.50 to tell us when to turn short-term bullish. A print there today would surpass a subtle external peak (see inset), creating a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts. If the futures instead head lower, trading beneath a midpoint support at 801.60, they would be indicating more downside over the near term to at least 788.70. _______ UPDATE: Gold’s pernicious $20 rallies — including this morning’s from 793.70 — should fool no one, since each is failing to create a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.