E-Mini S&P (944.75)

The futures eased lower after the regular session, but buyers galloped to the rescue shortly before midnight, putting a so-far mild squeeze on shorts. The rally would become impulsive on the hourly chart with a 1023.25 print, which would also invalidate all of the downside targets given here earlier: 969.75, 962.75, 951.00, and 918.75. Night owls could try getting long on a “hidden breakout” at 1012.00. I am introducing this term to describe a thrust that takes out two prior peaks (or lows) without surpassing a more obvious one. In this case, the obscure peak-let we are using to signal the breakout is visible on the 3-minute chart and occurred on the way down Tuesday at 1:48 p.m. It is shown in the accompanying chart. _______ UPDATE: Still nuttier than a fruitcake, the futures dove overnight after wafting no higher than 1008.50. They seem to understand what the pundits do not — i.e., that this morning’s devastating retail numbers actually mean something, whereas the alleged bank-system “rescue” does not. If you want predictability in this vehicle, I’d suggest hunkering down on the 3-minute chart and pretending your babysitting it. The very slight breach, at 9:42 a.m., of a midpoint support at 969.75 hints of more downside today to as low as 928.25. This ugly scenario would be invalidated, however, by a rally that exceeds 1011.50, the point ‘C’ of the pattern. _______ FURTHER UPDATE The futures fell 40 points, bottoming so far at 926.25 — two points from where predicted. They are currently at 944.75, a tradable 18 points off the low. (Note to pivoteers: The Sept 18-19 rally provides a well-settled B-C pairing for calculating downside targets. You need only work backward on the daily chart to find successive points ‘A’ as each new ‘D’ is obliterated. Right now, a breach of the lows made near the 928.25 target would push our point ‘A’ back to the 1554.00 peak (a dot on the chart, actually) made on 12-10-07. It yields a downside target of…873.50!)