HUI Gold Bugs Index (203.24)

The bad news is that HUI has breached an important midpoint pivot at 237.08 on a closing basis, implying it will fall a further 14%, to at least 174.36 (see chart), before finding traction. The good news is that if and when it gets there, we’ll be able to bottom-fish aggressively with a tight stop-loss and relatively little risk. I estimate that it will take five to seven trading days for the downtrend to complete itself. The outlook would brighten on a two-day close above 237.08, the midpoint noted above, but in any event we should be prepared to short there, or to lighten long-term positions, since HUI is not likely to blow past it on the first try. ________ UPDATE: The last week’s action has trashed the 174 support, putting a target of a larger order of magnitude in play: 134.17. That is now my minimum downside projection, and HUI would need to thrust above 223.51 to put it in doubt.