February Crude (36.90)

9027The rally begun just before Christmas amounted to 40 percent — more than a hiccup, for sure, but not very significant relative to the big, bearish picture. Now, Crude has returned to the multiyear lows near $35 whence the frenzy began. We can infer that it is groping its way down to 32.43, a Hidden Pivot target that lies 12 percent below these levels. The larger downtrend has been almost too tortured to trade, though, since a short-and-hold strategy would have routinely subjected risk-takers to intraday swings of 6%-8%. If a major turn is in the offing, it will be signaled by a strong impulse leg on the hourly chart. Just to give you an idea of how strong, it would take a print today at 40.81 to turn the short-term trend bullish. _______ UPDATE: Crude’s little crash-let today brought it down most of the way to the target, to a so-far low at 33.20. The original price objective of 32.43 remains valid — and OEPC, you can kiss our big fat a**!