February Crude (48.07)

9005The bear rally has been mediocre so far, but that would change if the surge were to hit 57.25 without any intervening pullbacks lasting for longer than a day. The chart shows why. As you can see, a push to 57.25 would surpass three prior peaks, two of them “external” — an impressive feat. More imnmediately, the futures appear to be struggling to reach the 49.65 target of a minor uptrend. If they get there in the first two hours of today’s session, though, you can try shorting with a stop-loss as tight as 18 cents. _______ UPDATE: The move above 49.65 came in labored spasms, but the fact that it occurred at all suggests that still higher prices lie in store. Since it occurred in the middle of the night, no trade was effected.