March 2009

With a little luck, the Diamonds will swoon this week to a Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart, ____. If so, let's be ready with a bid for two

Monday's chat room buzz had it that a strong rally could erupt at any moment. Perhaps, but there's no use cluttering our mind with such ugly speculation unless the futures pop through the three peaks show in the chart

Why is it that the juiciest shorts are all but un-shortable? The shares of Goldman Sachs, for instance. We predicted here a while back that the stock would eventually trade below $30, a 67 percent plunge from its then price of around $90. We were so sure of this that we promised to don a grass skirt and dance the hula in Times Square in the middle of winter if we were wrong. We’re still sure of it: Goldman shares are headed for disaaster. So why not simply short the stock in size, forget about it, then come back in two years to collect the huge profit that would be sitting in our trading account? The answer lies in the chart below. If you consider it as a whole, it’s plain to see that Goldman, like so many other financial stocks, has been devastated by the bear market begun eighteen months ago. It has dropped 81 percent so far from high to low. But look at how the decline has played out. If you had had steel-trap nerves and the genius to short a thousand shares when the stock spiked to an all-time of $250 in October 2007, you’d undoubtedly have been giddy over the $50,000 profit you’d earned when GS subsequently fell to $200 over the next six trading days. But four days later, 80 percent of your gains would have been wiped out when Goldman shot up to $240. Leveraging the Death Dive The roller-coaster ride continued until last February, when the stock took its steepest plunge so far, a 33 percent drop between February 1 and March 17. To have caught this death dive, however, especially the wickedly rewarding first two days when GS fell from $209 to $189, you’d need to have survived impalement by the

I've reproduced April Gold's weekly chart as a reminder of why we shouldn't be too concerned about the selloff that has followed the most recent push above $1000. The thing to notice is that this impulse leg, which topped at $1007 on February 20,

Tuesday's commentary has been written but will not appear on this Web page until 12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday. This is not a glitch, but rather a functional limitation of the WordPress platform that I am using to put out touts and commentary each day.  Michael Johnston, the webmaster, is trying to come up with a workaround, but until he does I would be most grateful for your patience.

Friday's silliness in the final hour left the futures hovering near the 6630 Hidden Pivot midpoint -- now resistance -- of a bearish pattern that projects to

The new web site is up and running, as you can see, but we've delayed the launch of the new chat room for a day or two because it was overloading the server during Sunday's trial run. Some old features will be added back in shortly, including "Actionable Advice" and "Open Positions," but it will take some time to archive the thousands of old touts that were accessible on the old site. You can call up recent commentaries and touts, though, by simply clicking on the calendar at right.

Friday's lows near 666 smashed the Hidden Support at 675.50 that we've been fixated on, suggesting that still lower prices are imminent. Accordingly, my downside target for the week is

The dollar has opened soft Sunday night, giving back about half of the gains off Friday's retracement low. The bottom so far has been 88.12, but DXY would need to fall just a bit more, to a midpoint support at 88.04