March 2009

As General Motors goes, so goes the nation? There was a time when this was very nearly true – never moreso than in 1955, when the company became the first to pay taxes of more than $1 billion. Now, with GM a heartbeat from flatlining, policymakers are still wrangling about the funeral arrangements. We should pay close attention to the process, since it could bring our leaders to acknowledge that it is not in the nation’s best interest to keep a failed business on a respirator, especially when doing so consumes billions of taxpayer dollars per week.   Deal forthrightly with GM and perhaps our leaders will be sufficiently emboldened to let some big banks fail. A couple of Republicans floated this idea on TV Sunday morning, and so far it appears they have lived to tell about it.  We should all be heartened when such a simple and sensible idea does not provoke a firestorm on Capitol Hill. Expect the issue to resurface as soon as a seemly interval has passed to allow GM to segue into the hereafter.   No Featherbedding   Actually, the “structured” bankruptcy that is being planned for the automaker will leave open the possibility of reincarnation. Could GM come back as a lean, mean and innovative producer of motor vehicles?  You bet it could. We have never doubted that such a goal lies within the grasp of Yankee know-how.  GM without the drag of featherbedding and retiree health care benefits could be delivering solar-powered cars to buyers even before the Japanese perfect hybrid technology. This, or something like it, is the answer for American car manufacturers, and the only reason they haven’t been able to accomplish it so far is that the old ways of producing had become entrenched. The unions and management can

Insomnia has brought the chat room to life tonight, and with it a request for an update on crude. The April contract is still striking for its promise to deliver...

On the hourly chart, the futures have not corrected Thursday's rally sufficiently to be recharged for another leg like it. Notice that the retracement would need to have come down to at least...

A moderate decline could be expected to find support at ####.##, a Hidden Pivot support. Let's be ready to bottom-fish there with an...

We should guard against getting kicked in the groin while we are busy patting ourselves on the back. The bounce from yesterday's lows stands to be a strong one, since the...

The E-Mini S&P futures did a touch-and-go landing yesterday that came within a hair of a 675.50 target we’d drum-rolled from 50 points higher. Officially, the three-tick miss was as good as a mile, and so we did not officially initiate a long position in the S&P mini-futures. However, and fortunately, some Rick’s Picks subscribers front-ran the order aggressively, buying just above the low print of the day at 676.25. Having been away from our desk during the final hour, we were initially concerned that an excellent buying opportunity might have been missed. But conversation recorded in the chat room assured us otherwise. The following snippet will give you some idea. It sounded like chatter from the LaGuardia flight tower with two planes headed for a collision. The S&P futures had been down 200-250 Dow points for most of the session, but the equivalent 680-level floor under the E-Minis appeared to be buckling in the final half hour: MikeS: who's gonna buy 675.50? Paulie: amazinggggg Duke: me Duke: buying from here MikeS: buy-limit in :) LC: without access to the real time --what’s so amazing?? MikeS: u front running the 675 Duke? Duke: yes, loading some layers LC: Is it selling off to the 675? MikeS: I will be patient Paulie: Well, the market just dropped off the cliff after grinding all day down 225 to 250. Real money popped, big GLD buying suddenly. Q's crashed after grinding away. It's just neat to watch. Maybe another 100 to go in the Dow if lady luck is here. Paulie: Nothin' like minus 300 or 400 to freak out Katie Couric Traderand: anyone long the ES? Duke: multiple lots so far, one more at exact Rick’s # Sportsdoc: Duke buying now vs. waiting for Rick pivot? Duke: I have orders at Rick’s

TBT met our trade criterion, pulling back to ##.##, but it has so far failed to gain loft after tripping an entry signal at...

A print at 930.10 today would begin to turn things around, but if the futures remain weak instead, the target at ###.## given here earlier will remain a lodestone. You can bottom-fish there, but not aggressively, since, as mentioned ...

If the futures take a decisive turn higher now without having achieved the ###.## downside target I've drum-rolled, it could imply the onset of a bull cycle lasting for 3-4 weeks or even longer. The word "decisive" in this context can be empirically determined, and we shall attempt to do so by stipulating the following: an unbroken thrust surpassing two prior peaks on the 180-minute chart will fill the bill. For perspective, and most immediately, that would take a pop to