March 2009

We should like to see each new rally leg exceed at least two prior peaks, since, from a Hidden Pivot perspective, that is what refreshes and revitalizes the bullish trend. However, the Gold Bugs Index failed to do this in mid-February and is paying the price. Notice how the...

We spent some time making usable sense of the E-Mini S&P’s vacillations in a strongly bullish trend. Is there a way to avoid false triggers? Indeed there is, provided you have the patience and diligence to find the warning signs on the lesser charts. On request, we also scrutinized charts of Kraft and UNG, finding relatively riskless ways to buy the latter even though it had been falling hard. We also considered the possibility that, over the next 3-4 years, global liquidity will dry up, making it increasingly difficult or even impossible to trade.

The futures are doing their wonted nightly waft, squeezing shorts who evidently were plagued by doubts after the closing bell on Tuesday. It would take a print well above these levels, however...

A Hidden Pivot at ##.## looks like an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing, so let's do it with a ...

DXY opened yesterday on a gap that exceeded our ##.## target by 20 cents. Because the pivot was both clear and built to last, the easy move through it strongly implies that DXY will continue higher to at least...

Gold bounced $12 after dipping just beneath the 906.80 target given here yesterday, but it is having trouble sustaining altitude in thin trading Tuesday night. If weakness persists without an intervening rally exceeding ...

We watched Kraft tease two Hidden Pivot supports on the way down, and now it's time for us to attempt bottom-fishing at the third...

Print news is dying, and we shouldn’t kid ourselves that the Internet will somehow replace it. In the last week alone, the 150-year-old Rocky Mountain News folded and the San Francisco Chronicle was talking about a possible bankruptcy. Nearly every large paper in the country could be gone within three to five years. The trend is unstoppable, and it threatens to drastically limit the quality and variety of news that we receive and have come to depend on each day. Many Americans evidently think they’ll be able to get their news from the Web and that the death of newspapers is no big deal. In fact, it is a very big deal, since nearly all of the news published online is gathered and written the old-fashioned way – i.e., by a vast, global network of reporters employed by brick-and-mortar newspapers. That network has been dwindling rapidly, however, and it is unlikely the casualties will ever be replaced. In order to save on newsprint costs, newspapers have been shrinking to survive. That leaves less space for news, reducing the need for reporters. As a result, it is now almost impossible for journalism-school graduates or even veteran reporters to find work. We have many friends in journalism, having worked as a reporter and editor from 1971-78. One of them searched extensively for a managing editor’s job, finally landing a spot with a small paper in the Midwest. This man had talent and experience to burn, including a stint running a bureau for the Associated Press. But even with his excellent professional connections, it took him six years to get hired. Another friend of ours, a top state-house reporter and Pulitzer winner, recently took a buy-out from the troubled Newark Star-Ledger to work for the state treasurer. And a third, also a Pulitzer

Shorting puts as the stock plummeted to within a nickel of our target yesterday morning, we've legged on the June 25-June 23 put spread six times (or a multiple thereof) for a debit of 0.08. This means that the worst we can do at expiration is...