May 2009

Using Goldman has kept us on the right side of the market for some time, so I've taken pains in today's touts to show why the stock -- and therefore the broad averages -- is almost certainly headed higher. There are three targets in the $140s, and if the highest of them is reached it would imply a rally of about 11 percent from yesterday's settlement price of 134.16.

There are three rally targets worth considering right now, all of them between ___ and ___. The lowermost, _____, should be used as minimum objective for now; however, if it's surpassed we should infer that the second, a Hidden Pivot at ____ broached here earlier, is likely to be achieved. And if that number

The _____ target kept us properly bullish through thick and thin, but our focus should now shift higher, to a minimum _____, now that the first number has been turned into suet. This target is a fresh one and unadvertised, so by all means short it with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks if it's hit today. The target is shown in the accompanying chart, and

Gold did what we asked of it yesterday, but can it keep the streak going for a second day? We should expect no less if it's about to take off, so let's use a Hidden Pivot resistance at _____ as our minimum upside objective. That would complete the pattern shown in the accompanying chart,

The sharp rally in gold and silver was over in less than ten minutes yesterday, giving way to a "flag" correction that was lazily continuing to unfurl almost half a day later.  This is a modestly encouraging sign, since we'd gotten used to seeing bullion's rallies evaporate like gushers of steam from a geyser. The Comex June Gold contract exceeded every minor benchmark we'd set for it, so our bias will be bullish for a change as Monday's night session evolves. We say "bullish for a change" because we've been making bulls prove their case every step of the way lately. Rallies have shown little follow-through, and we'd rather not be tricked into buying on a false signal. There is still a bearish target at $845 outstanding, but it would become history on just one more strong upthrust.   The top of yesterday's $20 surge hit 908.30, but there was further upside potential over the next 18 hours to as high as 919.80. That's a Hidden Pivot target, and its breach would hint that still more strength is coming.  But it would take more than that - specifically, a print at 935.90 (basis the June Comex)  -- to turn the daily chart bullish for the first time since mid-February.  July Silver looks just as encouraging and need only rally to 13.750 to turn its daily chart bullish. That would represent a move of about five percent above yesterday's settlement price of 13.050.  Fear Will Return Technical analysis aside, it's hard not to be impressed with the way gold and silver have held up under the pressure of a hysterically complacent stock market's nearly nine-week-old bear rally. The rally should be viewed as an inversion of reality and therefore a negative for bullion, which tends to move higher when fear is waxing. Much

Apple hesitated for about 90 minutes at a 129.95 target given in my last tout, then it pulled back 30 cents from an interim high at 129.96.  However, the stock has since blown past the resistance and is not a good candidate for shorting, since it now looks bound for a minimum 134.13, or 140.24 if any higher.

Jerusalem Post columnist Caroline Glick is the hardest of the hard-liners where Israel's security is concerned. However, in the two essays linked below, her perspective is global and concerns 1) the long-term implications of President Obama's recent Apology Tour; and 2) the implicit go-ahead that Mr. Obama has given to Islamists who would make war to restore the caliphate. Here are the links:  http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1238562949505&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1239710831634&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

(Following are the trenchant thoughts of one David Kaiser, forwarded to me for comment by talk show radio host Al Korelin.  Dr. Kaiser thinks the U.S. is headed toward political and economic catastrophe under President Obama.  Please note, however, that the quote attributed to Mr. Obama was actually part of a parody that appeared in an essay by National Review polemicist Mark Steyn.  RA) Interesting thoughts from David Kaiser This is long, but enlightening. Lest you think it was written by some right-wing kook, David Kaiser is a respected historian whose published works have covered a broad range of topics, from European Warfare to American League Baseball. Born in 1947, the son of a diplomat, Kaiser spent his childhood in three capital cities: Washington D.C., Albany, New York, and Dakar, Senegal. He attended Harvard University, graduating there in 1969 with a B.A. in history. He then spent several years more at Harvard, gaining a PhD in history, which he obtained in 1976. He served in the Army Reserve from 1970 to 1976. He is a professor in the Strategy and Policy Department of the United StaStates Navalr College and has previously taught at Carnegie Mellon, Williams College and Harvard University. Kaiser's latest book, The Road to Dallas, about the Kennedy assassination, was just published by Harvard University Press. Dr. David Kaiser writes: "My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world. I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it." - Barack Obama History Unfolding I am a student of history. Professionally, I have written 15 books on history that have been published in six languages, and I have studied history all my life. I have come to think there is something monumentally large afoot, and I do not believe it is simply a

With Goldman shares banging on a rally target and the E-Mini S&Ps flirting with one of their own, this has the potential to be an interesting week. Gold is not likely to remain locked in tedium if stocks break out of their range, so I've provided benchmarks both above and below the market that can help you judge for yourself whether something interesting is happening.