May 2009

The downtrend begun in early March faces a crucial test of support at ____, the midpoint of the pattern shown in the accompanying chart. If that Hidden Pivot is breached it would hint of more weakness over the next few weeks to as low as _____. A strong bounce from that number looks

A print at ____ is still needed to justify a bullish bias for the near term, although _____ might work if you're looking for a subtler signal. As of 11 p.m. Sunday, however, there was only the promise of a push to

The futures were up as much as six points Sunday night, apparently unable to pick up the scent of news that could be used to move the markets more significantly. The _____ rally target is still viable but perhaps too well divulged by now to be of particular value for trading. There were no promising

With swine flu panic receding somewhat, mail from readers over the weekend gravitated toward less urgent matters, including the seeming now-and-again cynicism of Rick's Picks. "I follow your commentary regularly," wrote one reader, "and it sometimes seems like you actually want the economy to collapse. Do you?" Guilty as charged!  How else can the economy get back on track, if not from such ruinous depths as might force us toconfront the root causes of its sickness?  Otherwise, as long as we continue deceive ourselves about the nature of wealth, and about the economically crucial role of savings in creating wealth, no sustainable recovery is possible. To judge from the actions of our political leaders, one might think the way out of a debt deflation is to stimulate yet another credit boom - one powerful enough to cause all prices, most particularly home prices, to rise. Why anyone would believe in this flim-flam is baffling.  An estimated $12.8 trillion worth of attempted stimulus, bailouts and loan commitments have been tried already, to no avail. All of that funny money has produced no inflation whatsoever, much less a discernible benefit. What it has achieved, mainly, is to put Americans inextricably deeper in debt.    Inflationists 'All Talk' We note that even those who consider themselves inflationists do not seem to believe deep down that promiscuous monetization will raise the price of anything besides groceries. If they felt otherwise, why aren't they putting their money where their mouths are, plowing what remains of their nest eggs into real estate?  After all, what better way to bet on inflation right now than to jump headlong into a very depressed housing market? And maybe if we all do it, we can get rich together, perhaps recouping the biggest and most obvious piece of the American dream that

The earnings that banks have been reporting lately are about as honest as the numbers disseminated by Bernie Madoff’s accountant. Since blatant lies about the health of the banks are sustaining the bear rally that began in early March, it’s important that we understand what is really going on.  Here’s a good place to start – an article by Trace Mayer that fleshes out some egregious deceptions being foisted on the public.  Click on the link below to access his report: http://www.runtogold.com/2009/04/bankrupt-banks/

Evidently not. While researching swine flu precautions for travelers, I came across the following at Consumer Reports Health.org: "The compliance labeling of the N95 and N100 disposable surgical masks are evaluation ratings for their ability to filter out 'particles' of 300 microns or greater in diameter. ALL of the influenza A viruses (N1H1, et al) are magnitudes smaller than the test standards particles. Additionally, these masks lose their efficacy after 4 hours of wear. They are effective during that time for filtering out 'large' droplets from individuals talking or sneezing, but their large filtration openings and generally loose fit will provide little if any protection in an enviroment of truly airborne viruses. I am concerned that the Pandemic could be made worse by people believing they’re protected, exposing themselves, then taking the viruses back to family members and close associates."

Ourt bird-flu correspondent Erich Simon has just forwarded the following -- his comments,  followed by those of Dr. Henry Niman, a well-known virologist: Niman says that it is a "predictable" chain of events from this point forward. From where I'm sitting... if such be the case, then it looks like someone just re-introduced the Spanish Flu into species human, down in Mexico, along with a mish mash of genetic red herring markers to obfuscate that reality. Spanish Flu was the greatest mortality event in absolute numbers of the human race... so the party is only just starting.    Of course the H1N1 blue print virus is the same. But what immediately red-flagged me was how the virus attacked the young and killed those with the best immune systems, just like HP H5. What I continue to remain skeptical on is that the 1918 flu originated in pigs ('dumbed down' supposedly, a longstanding fear surrounding H5, but which has not happened and in the face of all odds since the H5 virus is endemic in Asian swine populations...).    But the jury is out on that one. My conclusion is that the 1918 LP H1 became so deadly... approaching HP parameter... because it probably went directly from bird to man, airborne, and never got the opportunity to 'dumb down'. But there was indeed a swine assortment genome apparently in the Spanish Flu, just like with today's virus.    What I didn't know was that the 1918 flu appeared in the spring, like this virus, then went away and 'reassorted' and came back much, much more virulent in the fall and laid waste to 1 out of every 20 people, about half of those from secondary infections which we can treat today. Also, H1N1 is responding to Tamiflu at this time..., but will not in the future as the virus 'learns' its way around

I'm a little more cautious than usual today, since the "Goldman Indicator" looked like a coin-toss Thursday night. Goldman isn't the only stock that could easily pop another rally leg:  IBM and Apple also look pretty good, and I have therefore furnished targets for both.

A Hidden Pivot resistance at _____ is equivalent to the rally target I've identified in Apple, and the same caveats apply if you should decide to short this stock. If Big Blue gets by that number, look for a follow-through