Healthcare Cliffhanger Is Great Entertainment

The healthcare circus on Capitol Hill continues to amuse, delight and entertain as Republicans maneuver to delay the alleged “reform” in every possible way. Pelosi thinks the GOP’s “mischaracterization” of the legislative package is what has been obstructing its passage.  In fact, were it not overwhelmingly obvious that a solid majority of Americans fear, despise and oppose this legislative turd, the Senate’s 39 Republicans wouldn’t have had a prayer of stalling it for an hour, let alone for days or weeks. Now it now looks as though they have a serious shot at derailing it until after Christmas, at least. 

Pelosi

It will take some help from a Democrat, however — Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, who is troubled by provisions that would provide public funding for abortions.  Nelson isn’t Harry Reid’s only problem. There’s also Joe Lieberman, who will allow the bill to come to the floor only with the so-called public option stripped out of it.  Minus this feature and some abortion goodies, left-wing Democrats don’t want the reform either, even if they oppose it for all of the wrong reasons. But for conservatives, nothing could be sweeter than seeing liberal extremists like Howard Dean calling for the rejection of the entire proposal. This aligns him perfectly with House and Senate conservatives who would like to start again from scratch. 

Don’t Count Reid Out 

Even so, Reid cannot be counted out to deliver something by Christmas, even if it’s the legislative equivalent of a third-trimester abortion.  Unfortunately, although Lieberman and Nelson appear to be hanging tough, we’d be surprised if they do not both capitulate after being offered some compromise that will allow them to save face. But we wish them well anyway, since they are all that stands in the way of what the Wall Street Journal labeled “The Worst Bill Ever” in a trenchant editorial. 

Pelosi, Reid et al. seem, in the meantime, not to believe polls that make the public’s strong opposition quite clear. They and other Democrats are likely to pay dearly for this in next year’s congressional elections. More immediately, however, their credibility will probably shrivel to the vanishing point because of bipartisan perceptions that the Christmas-or-bust mentality driving the bill has been wantonly reckless.  If  this trillion-dollar legislative monstrosity is enacted anyway, as seems likely, the majority who have opposed it will still have the small pleasure of savoring the inevitable speech by President Obama in which he praises the bill as though it were America’s very salvation. That he will do so with no sense of embarrassment or irony will put him even further out of touch with the voters, most of whom already think he’s doing a lousy job. 

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)

  • mario December 21, 2009, 4:55 am

    America’s New Accepted Currency: Food-stamps

    I just wrote a fresh, followup article to help everyone to grasp the idea that food-stamps be reasonably viewed as the new rising accepted currency in America, now used by 37 million Americans with 20,000 more added per day. I’ll wager that sooner than you think, another country will accept food-stamps from an American. Here: <a href=""http://www.mariocavolo.com/?p=637&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1="&quot;

    Government health-care, government food-stamps. This is part of the "next new normal". A new normal class of society has formed in America, a combination of the still poor and the ex-middle class with nowhere to turn and now on food-stamps. You may as well consider it their currency because they sure as hell don't have any USD in their pockets.

    Instead of going along too easily with all of the talk about disaster-type collapses, perhaps we shouldn't so quickly reject gentler words like "shift". The shift mentioned above has created a new class of people in this the "next new normal"

    This is why I continue rejecting the doomsday scenarios I keep hearing about. Stuff shifts. Each time some nasty event comes along, asset classes shift and settle down to their new relative position in the markets. Then until the next nasty even comes along, that scenario is the "next new normal". For example, the scenario we've had for the past year holds some deep fundamental changes that didn't exist before and will persist well into the future. One of these being this newly formed "sub-class" of est. 25-50 million Americans whose lifestyles were raped and pillaged by you know who. As Rick has often pointed out, millions of people with 60,ooo+ salaries have close to zero job opportunity as their new normal.

    It is painful to feel their plight as they go on government food-stamps and government health-care, whatever form this monster currently in legislation ends up taking.

    Cheers all and wishing everyone blessings for the holiday season , Mario

  • Edward0 December 20, 2009, 5:55 pm

    “The shining exception of the military” is a howler right up there with the conjoining of the words fox and news. The idea that the military is “well run” would be comical if the ill effects of its patent massive waste and fraud were not so enormous. And, of course, it pays to remember that as a result, people pay, every day, with their lives.

    &&&&&&

    By all means, let’s howl with laughter at the men and women of the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and Coast Guard.

    Shouldn’t we instead give the military proper credit for training the best fighting force in the world? I would suggest that you see the movie “Taking Chance” to strengthen your awareness of how the military actually does things. RA

  • Tom Paine December 19, 2009, 3:51 pm

    “As far as I’m concerned, and with the shining exception of the military, there is almost NOTHING that Government does right. Government f**ks up everything that it touches, and badly”

    I greatly respect your intellect, and your informed views on government corruption, etc., do make me wonder if I am wrong about the vestiges of liberalism that I hold as I drift more toward libertarianism, but the above quote almost goes beyond “hard-core” conservastive.

    I had a friend, may he rest in peace, who served in the USAF as a radar tech. and was later a payload specialist in the space shuttle program. He told me when he was in the AF that they had to order the radar parts in sets even though typically it was one or two parts that always burned out. After a while they would have a huge pile of useless parts that would end up in a dumpster, multiply that over all the radar systems and years and can you imagine how much those parts probably cost the tax payer?

    Not to take anything away from the bravery of the troops fighting our wars, but the military is no shining example of government efficiency, imo, and the Military Industrial Complex, labelled by lib-loon president Eisenhower and fingered by him as a threat to our democratic republican system, remains as probably THE biggest distorting factor in our polity and economy making sure that we are constantly engaged in “foreign entanglements” in order to keep the likes of Richard “the Dick” Cheney rich and powerful.

    That could be liberal cant, or libertarian cant, as I am pretty sure Rep. Paul would agree. Unfortunately, I believe it is the truth.

  • Steve December 19, 2009, 6:18 am

    I think Gary is basically saying that those stupid southern rednecks are too dumb to know what is good for them (thus no doubt the need for lefty elitists from the Ivy League to tell them).

    What exactly is a Republican stronghold? I see West Virginia around 42 in one list (America’s health rankings dot org) and while it has voted GOP for President lately, easily, it has a huge Democrat majority in both state houses, a Dem governor, and 2 Dem US Senators.

    Oklahoma – Dem governor, split state house (though the Senate just recently went GOP after years of Dem dominance) – but yes, an easy GOP Presidential win each year.

    Louisiana? Georgia? Nevada? Tennessee? – You need to look a little deeper than the 2000/2004 Presidential map to call these places Republican strongholds, especially since (for now) most healthcare legislation is still done at the state level.

    Time for that canard to drop, and believe me, I am no apologist for the GOP. What I object to is the smug, we know best, elitist attitude of the left.

  • Larry December 19, 2009, 1:46 am

    Even more baffling is that the richest states that are predominantly Democrat strongholds are the ones with their hands stuck out farthest… say California… or N’york…or Massachusetts.

  • Larry December 19, 2009, 12:09 am

    I rather like the picture [of Pelosi].

    It’s inspiring what wallpaper paste and a wig can do for a Speaker.

  • gary leibowitz December 18, 2009, 11:24 pm

    Most baffling is that the poorest states with the worse health care for its citizens are predominantly Republican strongholds. Even more amazing is the fact that the poorest citizens in those states are the most vocal against this reform.

    I thank Martin Snell for giving such a clear and concise explanation.

  • Rich December 18, 2009, 10:58 pm

    Just explored a refi to get lower payments and pull some equity out.
    They quoted 4.375% on a 30 year fixed and wanted 65% Debt to Income and 60% Loan to Value. Then rates jumped, with 10 year Treasury Note now targeting 4.5%.
    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24TNX

  • Steve December 18, 2009, 8:21 pm

    Competition is (as always) the answer to our healthcare mess. As Rick astutely points out in a comment to a comment, people forget what Medicare has done to screw up the whole system.

    It sounds great to have the government mandate no pre-existing conditions requirements, except it means the end to all private insurance because anyone with half a brain will wait until the diagnosis to purchase insurance – which goes against the entire premise of what insurance is supposed to do – much like buying auto or home coverage after the claim begins. We already have laws (at least here in CA) that if you prove you had insurance you can not be denied in moving coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

    That is why it is so crucial to Obama and the Dems to mandate everyone buy insurance or be guilty of criminal behavior.

    I do feel for those hurting due to our medical system. There are solid, common sense reforms that would work wonders – one of the best things going today is the major medical high deductible plan coupled with tax deductible HSA (health savings accounts) so we get away from thinking that INSURANCE should pay for every little doctor visit and prescription. Of course, Obama, Redi and Pelosi’s plan will outlaw these quite quickly, despite the campaign rhetoric of ‘if you like your plan you will get to keep it’ – too much free market with the HSAs for liberal agendas.

  • Jeff Kahn December 18, 2009, 7:38 pm

    Hi Rick,

    Actually, I do get how medicaire has distorted the insurance system. I’m angry about that. I just don’t feel that’s an excuse to gamble my premium in the derivatives markets and then cover the lost bet with my tax money, and then refuse to pay my claims, and then raise my rates to cover the lost bonus. I’m angry about both.

    Regards,
    Jeff

    &&&&&&

    Of the forces that are distorting the private insurance market, the fine hand of government is probably a much bigger factor than health insurers’ playing fast and loose with customers’ money. I have been trading down health plans since my wife gave up the absurdly generous coverage she had as a teacher in the California college system. I am therefore no fan of the insurers, with their niggardly exclusions, rate-ups, and stingy benefits. But I’ll take them any time over whatever Big Government is offering.

    I have been on top of Government’s failures for a long time, starting with my enrollment in LBJ’s summer jobs program (I didn’t qualify as poor by any stretch, but there would have been no money for corrupt administrators to administer if they hadn’t hired every kid they could find on the streets), then on to my first assignment as a newspaper reporter, covering the dismantling of OEO programs in New Jersey. Forty-five years of watching government fail miserably at everything it attempted, creating corruption in every precinct that it touched, has made me a hard-core conservative for life. As far as I’m concerned, and with the shining exception of the military, there is almost NOTHING that Government does right. Government f**ks up everything that it touches, and badly.

    RA

    . Each new policy has charged more for less coverage, and my latest insurer has excluded coverage for existing conditions

  • Doug December 18, 2009, 7:02 pm

    Rich:

    That is a great anecdote for the deflation argument. Very real. It just seems to me that banks are worth far less than their stock value, given these losses yet to be booked. There is a new paradigm shifting in mortgage banking, too, the peer to peer loan. Apparently, this is gaining some traction. What is interesting is outside the Fed manipulated world of banking the going rate for a home loan is 7 or 8%. Is this the end of fractional reserve banking? Interesting stuff.

  • Mercury December 18, 2009, 6:20 pm

    Please…no more close-ups of madam pelosi

  • Doug December 18, 2009, 6:12 pm

    Just to show how much time can pass as these problems continue to boil – from 1972, just as my athletic career was peaking in little league (TIME, ironic):

    Its the 70’s show. Maybe Obama is really nixon, not FDR redux.

    http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,903368,00.html

    Look at those numbers. Look at where we are. If not for the technology boom of the 80’s and 90’s….

  • Rich December 18, 2009, 5:22 pm

    One other slight fly in the inflation ointment:
    NB “This isn’t a default or foreclosure, but a negotiated transfer to our lenders.”
    Right, and the moon is made of blue cheese…

    By Dan Levy

    Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Morgan Stanley, the securities firm that spent more than $8 billion on commercial property in 2007, plans to relinquish five San Francisco office buildings to its lender two years after purchasing them from Blackstone Group LP near the top of the market.

    The bank has been negotiating an “orderly transfer” of the towers since earlier this year, Alyson Barnes, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman, said yesterday in a telephone interview. AREA Property Partners will take over the buildings, which have been held by the bank’s MSREF V fund. Barnes declined to say when the transfer will occur.

    “It’s not surprising this deal ran into trouble,” Michael Knott, senior analyst at Green Street Advisors in Newport Beach, California, said in an interview. “It was eye-opening among a group of eye-opening deals. There was almost no price too high in 2007 for office space in top gateway markets.”

    The San Francisco transfer would mark the second real estate deal to unravel this year for Morgan Stanley, which bet on the property markets as prices were rising. The firm last month agreed to surrender 17 million square feet of office buildings to Barclays Capital after acquiring them for $6.5 billion in 2007 from Crescent Real Estate Equities. U.S. commercial real estate prices have dropped 43 percent from October 2007’s peak, Moody’s Investors Service said last month.

    Lost Value

    The Morgan Stanley buildings may have lost as much as 50 percent of their value since the purchase, Knott estimated.

    Julie Solomon, vice president at AREA Property Partners in New York, declined to comment.

    The most desirable of the properties — One Post, with 489,000 square feet, and Foundry Square I, with 335,000 square feet — would sell for $300 a square foot, according to Colliers International. The value of all five buildings is about $279 million, the brokerage said.

    “This isn’t a default or foreclosure situation,” Barnes said. “It is a negotiated transfer to our lenders.”

    Morgan Stanley bought 10 San Francisco buildings in the city’s financial district as part of a $2.5 billion purchase from Blackstone Group in May 2007. The buildings were formerly owned by billionaire investor Sam Zell’s Equity Office Properties and acquired by Blackstone in its $39 billion buyout of the real estate firm earlier that year.

    The other buildings Morgan Stanley is giving up are 201 California St., 60 Spear St. and 188 Embarcadero. The five properties have a combined 1.3 million square feet, Colliers said.

    The bank will continue to own the other office buildings it acquired in the Blackstone deal, Barnes said.

    Defaults Rise

    Morgan Stanley, based in New York, was the biggest property investor among Wall Street firms at the time of the purchase. The transaction made the company one of the largest office landlords in San Francisco, adding 3.9 million square feet of office space there.

    Commercial mortgage defaults more than doubled in the third quarter from a year earlier as occupancies fell, according to Real Estate Econometrics LLC. Office vacancies will reach a near- record 19 percent in the first quarter of 2011, broker CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. estimated.

    Property sales financed with commercial mortgage-backed securities plunged 95 percent from a record $237 billion in 2007, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. A lack of securitized debt is driving down values, which may fall 55 percent from their peak, Moody’s said.

    Rents Fall

    San Francisco prime office rents fell 37 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since 2001, as companies cut jobs, Colliers said. The vacancy rate rose to 14 percent, the highest since 2005. Almost 1.4 million square feet of space was returned to the market in the first nine months of the year.

    Morgan Stanley last month agreed to hand over Crescent to Barclays, ending the firm’s obligation on a $2 billion loan after taking almost $1 billion in losses.

    When Morgan Stanley acquired it, Crescent owned 54 office buildings in cities including Dallas, Houston, Denver, Miami and Las Vegas. It also owned the Canyon Ranch spa and resort, residential developments in Scottsdale, Arizona; Vail Valley, Colorado; and Lake Tahoe, California.

    The San Francisco Business Times earlier reported Morgan Stanley’s plans to transfer the five buildings.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Levy in San Francisco at dlevy13@bloomberg.net

  • Rich December 18, 2009, 5:07 pm

    Here’s another made in American government nightmare:
    NY AG Andrew Cuomo forcing Costco to take food stamps.
    He who created the HUD housing mess.
    Some in DC may not be satisfied until every line of our Constitution is violated.
    3 B down volume in C yesterday bigger than the rest of the NYSE.
    Market air pockets ahead as more Euros and banks default?
    Interesting times indeed…

  • Clarkman December 18, 2009, 5:06 pm

    pass the bill, with the medicare op in, cover the poor and the 60 + million who have no coverage, we spend more in one year on guns than this bill will ever cost. If we need some money then stop the war in South America, or have Chenny steal some more oil from Iraq.

    &&&&&&

    Here’s proof that I’m not censoring liberal cant. RA

  • Rich December 18, 2009, 4:37 pm

    Still a paucity of bears. Not to be outdone by Pelosi, Reid and Franken stiffing Lieberman on the floor, Obama laid a Carter egg at COP15. Jobless claims soaring again. Of course Bernanke should not be confirmed, but may be because he came from the GOP, partisan politics as usual to the bitter end. Gold violated 20 and 50 day moving averages and may be in freefall territory to at least 970 PnF. Stocks testing fourth sideways bottom in a month may break through thin ice ignoring bullish seasonality. Bill Gross selling Bonds for cash. Long live King Dollar, with Prince William ascending the throne. Fading the open…

  • Doug December 18, 2009, 4:34 pm

    The insane hyperbole that Chairman O is spouting “If we don’t pass healthcare, we will go bankrupt,” is so obviously silly that it doesn’t really make him look smart enough to keep that “solid B plus” that he has given himself for performance to date. (BTW, all good points Martin, attacking previous bills) We ARE bankrupt. With the entire world economy at what $50 Trillion, I have a hard time believing that our $150 Trillion total debt has an offsetting set of assets to zero out. But maybe he does deserve a B plus. We have no idea how bad (or good) his sealed grades from previous schooling were.

    We (excepting government officials and Goldman employees) all are disappointed with healthcare to some degree. This is not the solution. How do you expect to get a good solution from a gang of corrupt, not that smart, detached politicians? Oh, I know. Maybe we need to let Goldman sell health derivatives? You know, health default swaps. Let the “free market” work it out. wink wink

    Bankrupt. he-he-he. B plus! ha-ha!

    It will all get remedied, but only through total collapse. How else? There are too many on board the life raft who lack the moral fortitude to forsake their comfort for the future of everyone else’s. Likely, this will be a very long and painful process. I just hope it gets cleared out before the next generation gets too far down the road with their lives.

    Remember Karim? I have a sticky note with his targets on gold stuck to the side of my monitor: 970 to 940, then through 1000 and on to 1150, then touch back to 950, reverse and up to 1500. Not bad, so far. 980 back to 910, then 1227, back to? Maybe Paul is onto something and the failure of healthcare is the excuse to strengthen the worn out dollar to get gold down to triple digits. At that time, the dollar will be sucking down carrot juice and tofu salads and then suddenly realize that healthcare, no healthcare, it didn’t really matter. Dollar is Kaput. You know after is gets shotdown (healthcare) they will stitch something together and the rest of the sell-outs will accept it. Or this or that. They can’t tinker enough nor will their ever be enough irresponsible obligations piled on to OUR money.

    Sigh. Is 6 am too early to start drinking? (kidding)

  • Jeff Kahn December 18, 2009, 2:14 pm

    No doubt: it’s a lousy bill. However, to say to say that Republicans would like to start from scratch is not accurate. They would simply like to scratch it, to keep those fat checks coming in from the insurance lobby. And if you’re against the public option, you should simply shut down the insurance industry: they all would have gone under when AIG went broke. This is because they all gambled the insurance premiums on complicated instruments that Goldman Sachs sold them, that they don’t understand. Now they’re running on my Tax money. And to thank me, they just raised my premiums by 23 percent this year. And when I just went in to fill a prescription I found it was one of the many not covered. Thanks. So not everyone is happy with the legalized extortion we call the health insurance industry.

    &&&&&&

    Forum posters seem to be missing the gargantuan fact that Medicare and Medicaid that have warped and distorted private insurance. BY underpaying for basic services, the government has pushed the costs onto private insurers. Period. RA

  • Tom Paine December 18, 2009, 6:43 am

    I highly doubt this is worst bill ever, but I don’t really know. What I do know is that almost every, if not every, country that has a national health insurance spends less for helath care than we do and gets equal if not better results in terms of longevity of its population.

    Doctors offices have to have huge expensive billing operations to deal with the system the way that it is now, and this major part of the expense of providing health care would be eliminated with a single payer system.

    Why is a majority of the public opposed to health care reform? Could it be because of all the money spent by the health care industry to scare them $%#@less?

    The whole notion of rationing is an insurance industry canard used to scare the public away from the only kind of reform that really makes any sense. The fact is that the insurance company’s ration health care all the time and the fact that so many cannot afford their plans is another kind of “rationing”. There’s no doubt in my mind that there is more “rationing” of health care in the US than in any country with a public insurance system.

    And all the scare tactics from the insurance industry and all their lobbying and campaign payola is what makes a national health insurance like they have in nearly every other developed country on the face of the earth impossible, and if indeed this is THE WORST bill ever, I am pretty sure it is because the health care lobby has made darned sure that nothing better, nothing that actually could pass will ever come up for a vote.

  • Edward0 December 18, 2009, 6:28 am

    The American Public will pay dearly if they continue to move mindlessly back and forth between the demonic duo that are the Democrats and Republicans. There is no lesser evil here. Were The Republicans in the same legislative position as The Democrats, they would undoubtedly be crafting something equally grim, albeit arguably with its own distinctly unseemly contours. More to the point, both parties, with voter’s full cooperation, have squired the nation right into a deep arroyo ahead of a once in a century deluge. Bravo!

  • Other Paul December 18, 2009, 6:07 am

    I wonder how much the dollar bulls and bears have handicapped the passage of ObamaCare?

    Is the passage of the bill going to be THE final staw on the dollar’s back? Seems like we’ve had enough straws in the past 12 months, hasn’t it?

  • Occdude December 18, 2009, 5:05 am

    All I have to say is just wait till mid-term elections. These wacky Democrats who represent the absolute bottom of the barrel in liberal politics are going to get absolutely whacked by left, right and the middle. Look for a complete and utter rout, with people willing to elect ANYONE who remotely sounds like he or she knows what they’re doing.

  • Martin Snell December 18, 2009, 4:10 am

    “Worst Bill Ever” – a lot of competition there!!

    Repeal of Glass-Steagall (Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999) would be one of my top ones, far, far more damaging than health care reform, which at the moment looks like a non event, except perhaps as a cash for corpses policy for insurance companies. The repeal of Glass-Steagall has cost the country a large fortune.

    Then there was the Iraq War Resolution (formally the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002). A nice little bill that will end up costing at least $3 trillion before all is said and done.

    Then again there were the Bush tax cuts for a modest $2.5 trillion over 10 years (2001-2010). I am not against tax cuts, like them in fact, except you have to pay for them by cutting spending…which of course did not get done. Eight years of deficits as a result. Unfortunately Republicans like to cut taxes but not spending and Democrats like to spend but not raise taxes.

    Best solution to health care – Medicare buy in available for all (optional) with premiums set so that all additional costs are covered (no new net costs to the system except perhaps some start up infrastructure). Plus for insurance companies, no lifetime/annual cap and no denying based on pre existing conditions.

    &&&&&&

    Thanks for your insightful comments, Martin. “The Worst Bill Ever” was not some kind of rhetorical flourish, incidentally. I’ve e-mailed you a copy of the editorial so that you might judge for yourself. RA