Finding Investable Ideas in the Oil-Spill Disaster

Now wasn’t that refreshing!  The Dow did a nearly 300-point dipsy-doodle yesterday, providing comic relief for millions of investors who might otherwise have spent the day fretting over the oil spill and North Korea’s quasi-declaration of war.  Earlier in the day, before NYSE stocks staged an epic recovery from abysmal lows, both of these developing news stories were cited by pundits as reasons why the broad averages had plummeted on the opening bell. How silly of us to think that Wall Street might actually have been concerned about Kim Jong-il’s next move, or about the mounting catastrophe that threatens to destroy the Gulf of Mexico’s ecosystem and shore-based economy, if not the economy of the entire U.S. Perhaps when globs of tar start washing up in the Hamptons, and the livelihoods of fisherman from Maine to Galveston are threatened, perhaps then stock-market speculators will act for once like they have a stake in the real world.

Photo of North Korean Dictatory Kim Jong-Ill sitting in his underwear

In the meantime, it’s hard to tell which is more threatening:  a nuclear-armed, certified whack-job spoiling for a fight with his neighbor to the south, or an oil gusher that could turn most of America’s coastline hostile to humans and deadly to waterfowl and marine life.  We supposed we’d rather take our chances with Kim Jong-Il, since there’s always the remote possibility he’ll wind up like Mussolini and those lovely Ceausescus. But the oil-spill story seems to be getting worse by the hour, and it has the potential to replace “American Idol” as bozo-dom’s number one obsession if British Petroleum’s attempt to plug the leak with a “top kill” fails.  Failure was evidently a risk, since the oil may be gushing too hard for the tactic to work, according to some engineers. There were also rumors that the sea bed had collapsed and that trillions of cubic feet of methane could ultimately be released into the atmosphere. If so, investors who survive would surely want to tune to Cramer’s show, since he’ll be the first to come up with a list of publically trade companies positioned to make out like bandits. We can’t think of any such companies ourselves, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the end of civilization as we know it will not have investable consequences for the lucky few.

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  • PKP May 29, 2010, 1:46 am

    Oil Spill and N Korea:
    The two may be connected. The drilling company is South Korean. Lately, South Korean properties explode in the middle of the ocean….
    This should be a good excuse to go after (Sadam)Kim Jong-il…..

    • Benjamin May 30, 2010, 3:20 pm

      I don’t know that the drilling co is SK, but I think you might be right about the connection.

      Aside from the BP incident, in the last month two other problems emerged for oil. One was a tanker spill somewhere in Asian waters (the Philipines, iirc) and the other a pipeline in Alaska. But look at the oil prices. Closing price has been trending down, not up as one would expect from three incidents like these.

      Now, supposing governments are gearing up for yet another war. Oil companies could profit immensely if the BP incident results in drastic environmental damages. In these deflationary times, more regs would probably exert more upward pressure on the price than three or more disasters haven’t.

      Even more telling, imv, is that ridiculously low liability cap. Supposedly, the environmental cleanup liability is not so limited, but the personal damages are. Whether anyone agrees or not, there is only one reliable measure of environmental damages and that is personal property. There’s some 600 quadrillion gallons of water in the Gulf, so measuring the purely environmental effect is going to be impossible. So without greater personal damage claims to guide cleanup efforts and money, BP can very well get away without paying much at all.

      They don’t have to succeed at plugging up anything, and if another war is in the making, then they have every incentive to do what amounts to nothing, except of course wait for the money to spill in. And oh, wouldn’t ya know… The “top kill” has failed. Strange. If they really figured it had such a good chance of working, then why didn’t they do it earlier, rather than wait for the BOP and other plumbing to get worse? I can’t believe they’re allowed to so easily take people for a ride like this!

      Anyway, for all you U.S. readers, have a happy Memorial Day. Me, I’m going to remember that we used to have a country that gave a damn, and so won’t be too happy (without some help from Sam Adams, anyway!)

  • Rich May 26, 2010, 6:10 pm

    Obama the biggest recipient of BP donations.
    BP oil trading team in Singapore resigned.
    Unsurprising Carville and others screaming stink to high heaven.
    Oil industry successfully lobbied Congress to cap their liabilities at $75 Million in order to get insurance to keep drilling.
    unConstitutional talk by Congressionals facing reelection to boost that to $10 Billion retroactively.
    Wild card might seem to be legal liability for reckless or willful mistakes, but Exxon took 15 years and Supreme Court to reduce their $5 Billion damages to $500 Million.
    Green BP initially attempted to quash liability requiring all oil-spill workers to release them until BP stopped by public outcry.
    While Dept of Interior Salazar claimed to keep his boots on the throat of BP, and MMS head fired, Government may be too dependent on oil money to pursue this.
    Legal industry salivating on both sides.
    Judicial bribes not unheard of, documented in Chicago by Citizens’ Committee to Clean up the Courts founded by late Sherman Skolnick in wheel chair like Ironsides. Condoleeza Rice Chevron oil tanker, judicial corporate acquisition schemes, secret meetings and payoffs to both parties.
    Oil companies pretty much still run the world even after Larry Martin Hagman, JR of Dallas, got his liver transplant and went Green.
    Oil still has more money and power than AAPL, MSFT and WMT combined.
    Putin, who KGB paid to get his PhD in natural resource markets, proved that by cutting off Gas to Ukraine and threatening Europe for higher prices.
    BP owns 50% of Russian TNK-BP.
    Might be interesting for subscribers to see Rick’ Hidden Pivot targets for BP…

  • warren May 26, 2010, 5:43 pm

    A relief well is what is needed and what should have been in place. Unfortunately, it was deemed unnecessary by some paid off bureaucrat. He was cheaper to buy than the proper insurance I guess.
    They are going to let the same thing happen in the Arctic.
    My question is this: how much oil does it take to ruin fisheries on a global scale?
    Now on to Kim Jong II.
    This guy may be a fanatic, but really, do you think he wouldn’t have already pulled the big trigger if he were really nuts? I think that the south sank their own boat. Whether by mishap or on purpose is irrelevant. The sinking needed to be blamed on someone so that the bureaucrats in charge can save face.
    When the general population of this planet finally gets tired of being scammed by people in power and letting them get away with it, maybe a change will happen. Maybe, just maybe, some honest, God fearing, people; who are not morally bankrupt, can step in.
    Unfortunately, I think it is almost too late. That said, I now go shopping while I can still afford a stock of seafood. Bye

  • Bam_Man May 26, 2010, 4:26 pm

    So that’s how he passes the time while waiting for his “Member’s Only” outfit to come back from the dry cleaners.

  • S David May 26, 2010, 3:14 pm

    Maybe this solution is too simple?

    http://www.wimp.com/solutionoil

  • Celty May 26, 2010, 3:05 pm

    Any one else picture the world as a popped balloon that is now just swirling through space spewing oil and deflating?
    I was sort of wondering why they just can’t plant a ring of explosives around the leak and collapse the drill hole onto itself?
    5000 feet down is hard to imagine though. Do you think that underwater robotic technology may see a boom here?
    Seriously though, if we can land a space shuttle on a rogue asteroid and plant a nuke on it to save Earth, why can’t we stop this leak?
    Oh, wait……

  • Johno May 26, 2010, 1:46 pm

    As BP enjoys the white heat of the world’s spotlight, the other oil majors must be thinking ‘there but for the grace of god go I’

    • Rich May 26, 2010, 5:05 pm

      BP had the hubris to call itself a green company.
      Chevron Sierra Club next?

  • mario cavolo May 26, 2010, 11:24 am

    Keith you really hit the point I just can’t understand. No matter I am an engineer or not….they have themselves a hole billowing out very high pressure liquid, think like the pressure of a waterfall but upside down…..so as you said, if the hole is for example 1 meter diameter, then can’t they make a very very heavy freakin 1m x 3m cylinder of heavy cement or even cement/iron scraps combo and stick it in there…? as you said, if they made it smaller than the hole, then they could get it in there and that would slow the flow first, then they could finish plugging it….pardon my ignorance for making this sound too damn obvious…..tell me exactly why it is incorrect….?

    Cheers all, Mario

    • Benjamin May 26, 2010, 3:51 pm

      “tell me exactly why it is incorrect….?”

      My not-keith guess: Because it’s not a million golf balls, mud, and wet cement, none of which has ever been proven to work at that deep level, but which runs the chance of doing exactly what Keith hopes it won’t… 30-40% chance of ripping it wide open!

      I dedicate this to BP (actually, someone else did already)…

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3eXLHJDDbk

  • Occdude May 26, 2010, 9:51 am

    I’d put my money on the guy with the bad “hair-don’t” to cause the next panic. Seoul is within artillery range of the North and this guy who runs N. Korea is a real nut job.

    N. Korea just ceased ALL interactions with the south contradictory to their own self interest, so you can’t use the normal metrics of self preservation with N. Korea which makes them nuclear armed, crazy and unpredictable as the saying goes “when you aint got nothin you got nothin to lose”.

    It appears they would rather save face than save their butts which is a motivation not well understood by us self absorbed westerners and the apocalyptic scenario which appears to be playing out, would dovetail nicely with current events. The question is, does this have the potential for expansion to other countries namely China, who backed the North in the last conflict.
    I think thats not a definite possibility, but certainly not off the table with this current “witches brew” that seems to be agglomerating.

    • Rich May 26, 2010, 9:59 pm

      Army General friend said they never negotiated peace in Korea, only an armistice. Seoul metropolitan area the second largest in the world, with 25 Million people. Kim likes to rile things up every so often to get freebies from the stupid capitalists. The Chinese let him do it because they don’t want to pay or be invaded and they used N Korea to transfer nuclear weapon technology and arms to the Middle East. To show how empty Kim’s hand is, look at the picture of Korea at night. The brightest glob is Seoul…
      http://standupforamerica.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/korea-by-night.jpg

  • TahoeBilly May 26, 2010, 6:17 am

    Keith,

    Since you have some knowledge, and I know this is so simplistic, but why can’t they just drop huge cubed concrete sections over the thing and squash the damn thing down? I am thinking like 100ft square would that at least slow the thing? Then cement all around it after it’s slowed? Sure would be heavy, but something big and heavy should slow it down, no?

  • FranSix May 26, 2010, 5:35 am

    North Korea, forgotten about during the Haiti disaster, sinks a sub, and whadaya know, there’s another freakin’ disaster in the gulf RIGHT AFTER. No good luck getting emergency food assistance this year, I expect, for North Koreans.

  • donniemac May 26, 2010, 3:47 am

    No lie, I am preparing my spare bedroom for potentially permanent occupants!

  • Benjamin May 26, 2010, 3:37 am

    I know you were just making a comical point, but in the future could you _please_ put some clothes on your Kim Jong pictures so that I won’t lose my dinner?

    Anyway, I’ll pick the BP oil leak. Always trust interests that are against oil and for solar panels and have a crappy safety record as a result, I always say. But being the cynical little optimist that I am, I haven’t given up hope. No sir! Print up all the money to pay of fthe debt of the world and use THAT to plug up the hole! It’ll work!!!

  • TahoeBilly May 26, 2010, 3:31 am

    I’d bet my life that is the highest test malt liquor in NK he is swilling. Hey I’d be naked and drinking malt liquor too if I lived there…dark stuff, funny though.

  • Paulie May 26, 2010, 2:40 am

    OMG!!! It was so startling, I lost control of my senses and in a reflexive moment of self-preservation and patriotism, I shot my screen when I saw that picture of Kim Jong-Il…! The bad thing is I’ll need a new computer screen, but the good thing is I hit him right between the nipples.

  • keith May 26, 2010, 2:38 am

    I worked on a drill rig for 5 years and I understand all the techniques and terminology being thrown around out there. There is a real chance that they will never be able to stop this thing (I hope to god I’m dead wrong). I’m being totally serious. Many of you will laugh at me.

    • Benjamin May 26, 2010, 6:21 am

      “Many of you will laugh at me.”

      Ahahahaha! Keith is probably right, the damned fool! Ahahahaha!

      The thing I dont get though is how they could drill this hole and attach a line to it, but not plug it up in some way or just attach another line. They can throw around all the terminologies they want, but that question remains, in my mind at least. It’s like saying “Oh, well we knocked a hole in the Hoover dam. Might as well just brace for the flood!”

      I don’t think they want to fix it is what it is. With oil prices dropping and relativelty mild inflation in the cost of living, along with Obama’s “tough words”, I think they’d just rather pay the fines and law suits than to deal with the problem they’ve caused through their own negligence.

      Now, the thing about BP is that they and their political masters truly don’t care. I live near Whiting, IN which is home to the big refinery. Recently, the EPA (along with O’s usual blessings) barred BP from expanding it’s operations, part of which would have reduced real pollution at the “expense” of some more carbon emissions. But that’s not what the political agenda wants. If they keep real pollution around, that equalls more fines, whilst sustaining the line that the earth is on fire as it were, thanks to carbon dioxide. It also helps sustain fuel prices, too, which we all see sinking to unimpressive levels in this deflationary trend that is causing tax revenues to fall.

      http://www.chicagotribune.com/health/chi-bp-pollution-20-oct20,0,930177.story

      Not that I trust BP any further than I can throw them. They realize the benefits to themselves, which is to say neither is the overgrown government on our side. Yep, Keith is right. The hole is going to get bigger, me thinks.

    • Rich May 26, 2010, 5:18 pm

      Friends on rigs in the industry suggested BP was in a hurry and did not have HAL RIG pack the pipe with mud to prevent the blowout.
      BP first suggested CAM’s blowout preventer was at fault. There is insurance.
      In any event, $11 B or even more is a few week’s revenues for BP, which might be a buy above $30 or $40 for a double…