JYM10 – June Yen (Last:1.0557)

A midpoint bounce in progress lends credence to one of two lower “D” targets, should the midpoint support be broken.  The Yen has been working its way lower since early December, approaching parity with the stalwart American cent.  There are two active versions of a strong pattern on the daily chart, differing in their “A” points.  Just hours before we came to appreciate the second of these for the first time, the futures stopped falling one pip above its midpoint pivot of 1.0531.  Alas, we are left to observe that if this support level gives way, especially after a substantial bounce, then we should focus on buying its sibling “D” target at 1.0138.  The alternative “A” point has its merits, however, so traders should be aware of its “D” target at 1.0340, which we have touted twice before.  Stops should be at 1.0129 and 1.0329, respectively. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (11:05 p.m. EDT):  The bounce from one pip above the midpoint pivot was sizeable, but since late afternoon the Yen has given back most of those gains.  We continue to like both of the “D” targets, especially the lower one whose sibling midpoint performed so well. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (May 6, 11:33 a.m. EDT):  On Wednesday, the Yen came back down and made a double-bottom at the exact prior low of 1.0532, one pip above the midpoint of the daily pattern that we favored.  Last evening, the futures traded up too quickly for us to finish a new tout using A=1.0539 on the hourly chart; the midpoint was surpassed by one pip and the pullback was worth almost $1000 per contract.  The hourly “C” point was left narrowly intact.  Again with lightning speed, the futures rallied today, through the midpoint.  The “D” target of this pattern is at 1.0802, and although this is near a round number (1.08), the midpoint action suggests that the “D” is worth trading.  We will suggest shorting at 1.0799 with a stop at 1.0806, risking about $88 per contract. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (May 6, 11:53 a.m. EDT):  We were quickly filled and had only a momentary nine-pip gain before the futures blasted higher on another momentous trading day.  The daily pattern has not been broken yet, but the Yen’s bullish impulsiveness is profound, so we will remove the actionable notation and watch what happens.