Let’s  try to set up a riskless bet on the longshot proposition that Apple will be trading much lower come mid-January.  Once again, we’ll use a butterfly strategy to effect this wager — specifically, the January 260-270-280 put butterfly spread. It close on Friday @ 0.33, but we can attempt to do better by legging into it, buying January 260 and 280 puts when the stock looks like it’s peaking, then shorting 270 puts on a pullback.  Assuming AAPL is about to rally into resistance near 320, let’s bid 2.00 for two January 280 puts, good through Wednesday. They last traded for around 2.20.  If we put are able to put this spread on risklessly — i.e., buy the butterfly for “even,” or a zero debit — that implies we’ll have shorted two January 280 puts for the same price we’ve paid for one January 260 put and one January 280 put. _______ UPDATE (10:01 a.m. ET):  We bought two January 280 puts for 2.00 when DaBoyz popped the obligatory short-squeeze gap on the opening bar. We’ll want to short-sell four January 270 puts if and when the stock falls back, but for now do nothing.