High-Diving Investor Climbing, Climbing….

Treasury Bonds got savaged yesterday, but more-devastating carnage lies just ahead if our analysis from last week proves correct. Wall Street, for its part, seems to view the impending firestorm as though it were a Yule log. The Dow Industrials rose nearly 50 points on light volume, never even dipping into negative territory.  We’ve seen divers boldly ascend a 70-foot tower and jump into a big wet sponge, but the stock market seems positively arrogant about the dive it will inevitably take onto concrete.

Just a week ago, we told you to brace for the worst: “Falling T-Bond Threatens Illusion of Fed Control”.  At the time, yields on the 30-Year were around 4.43%, but we predicted that 4.82% was on its way, and thence 5% and…away-we-go.  Yesterday’s plunge in T-Bond prices pushed yields to 4.56%, so we’re already a third of the way there in just five trading days. A rise of 13 basis points over that period may not seem like reason to panic, but when you consider that trillions of dollars worth of debt – and hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of hyper-leveraged derivatives bets – will be subjected to the higher rates, you begin to understand why the stock market’s arrogant insouciance is worth troubling over.

Ben’s Big Problem

Adding to Ben Bernanke’s Big Problem is that the plunge in T-Bond prices has been so steep. If the dollar were falling now as well, it would probably trigger a panic, accelerating the fall of both. The fact that the dollar has been doing no worse than holding its own for the last month or so suggests not only that the herd instinct dominates the institutional investment scene, but also that expectations of a eurodisaster have made the dollar the only game in town, at least for portfolio managers who harbor a congenital distrust of bullion. Perhaps they think higher interest rates will put the kibosh on gold and silver?  No question, tighter money will put downward pressure on precious metals. But there are a score of big, sovereign buyers who will keep buying bullion no matter what the returns are on paper.  Can you blame them?

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  • kkken530 January 5, 2011, 1:42 am

    what goes up then comes down..

  • root December 19, 2010, 7:08 pm

    # 1. Straight line projection rarely works–humans harbor the illusion that they can predict the future–it rarely happens. #2. If the bad happens as predicted here, ownership will cease to be honored or protected–a new dictatorship will not protect your property or other assets–they will take over all ownership for alocation to the general public. Those stupid, small minds who constantly fight social welfare will get a combination of Nazism and Communism in one fell swoop. The world would be safer if you accepted that over-population always leads to some form of sharing. If not, start planning your funeral.

  • Rich December 15, 2010, 11:45 pm

    Gold up 101% in two years suggests a double in real interest rates.
    Nominal Treasuries catching up.
    How many investments reliably return 50% a year?
    Debt default deflation may be pending with the collapsing annual monetary base telegraphing future events creating values bigger than 1981 or 1932…

    http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?s=%24gold

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=BASE&s%5B1%5D%5Btransformation%5D=pc1

  • gary leibowitz December 15, 2010, 11:08 pm

    How can bonds crash if the EU is doing even worse? You have to place the US problem in context to the rest of the world. Even the countries with economic expansion and little debt will suffer if our economy stalls further.

    Mind you I am envisioning a deflationary spiral as opposed to the Fed’s push to inflate. So far the numbers are surprising on the lack of inflation. Some might attribute it to manipulation. I dismiss that argument since for years the advocates for manipulation should have seen massive inflation by now and they haven’t.

    I think high qulity corporate and government bonds will be another chance in a lifetime buy in 3 to 6 months. The chance of default is negligible and yields should easily fall to new lows by then.

    I guess I am a contrarian on this one.

    • Robert December 16, 2010, 7:29 pm

      “So far the numbers are surprising on the lack of inflation. Some might attribute it to manipulation. I dismiss that argument since for years the advocates for manipulation should have seen massive inflation by now and they haven’t. ”

      – I don’t know about you, but I maintain our family’s recurring monthly expenses using a cash-flow, and I have seen a nearly 15% month over year increase in aggregate baseline expenses (fuel, groceries, water and electricity) from their 2008-2009 levels.

      I think I’d enjoy a little “real” deflation right about now… 🙂

      Unlike the Government and their stupid CPI, I don’t really care if the prices of Houses and Big Screen TV’s are dropping. In my mind, the glut of available for-sale supply of each means that prices SHOULD be dropping on them (duh).

      Let’s face reality- The Fed is printing money because house, auto, and TV and appliance prices are falling, and they are COMPLETELY IGNORING the basic supply glut fundamentals in those markets. This is not deflationary. The supply and demand factors suggest that it SHOULD be deflationary, but, as David Galland with Casey Research stated so eloquently yesterday:

      “There is no fire so big that no volume of water can’t put it out”; and the Fed has the firehose.

      The FED has an unlimited supply of “100% off” coupons- therefore, any level of global debt denominated in USdollars can be extinguished. There is no valid contrarian position to this argument.

      Imagine if you will, that the unthinkable occurs and the dollar debasement accelerates from here as the Asians continue to de-lever themselves from the dollar, and the Fed is forced to buy even more bonds in the open market as the yields climb due to the Asians selling.

      This would force the Treasury to issue even MORE bonds to fund the US Government’s rising debt service burden (remember- at maturity the Bond issuer can only pay the debt, or roll the debt forward with new issuance at market interest rates- there are no other choices).

      Don’t think about prices in this scenario- simply think about the purchasing power of your income and your savings.

      If the dollar went defunct, then the stage would be set for a new global reserve currency. Does anyone out there still believe that a single global fiat currency is not what EVERY government wants to see? They may disagree on who the issuing authority should be, but every government dreams of the day that they will have a say in Global Monetary policy (ie: “We” on the inside will get to determine how much “They” on the outside have to pay up in order to keep us relevent as “authorities”)

      What do you imagine the settlement rate of exchange on your US denominated bond certificates against the new currency would be? One for one? Really?

      Steven Fair is absolutely 100% correct- The contract basis of the New World Order is fee-simple absolute in nature (IE: “We the governement own whatever we DECIDE that we own, and “they” will pay us whatever we deem necessary in exchange for it’s use)

      I want to be on the first spaceship to Mars, and I’m taking my guns with me.

  • Robert December 15, 2010, 7:24 pm

    All I have to say is:

    As a business, the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, inc. does not look like a good investment to me.

    I mean, would you invest in a company that has it documented in simple language on line one of their prospectus that they are competently incapable of maintaining a quality balance sheet?

    Speculation aside- anyone who invests in the present funding system that the US has in place, is effectively investing in the expectation that the FOMC and The Treasury Sectretary are effectively smarter than EVERYONE else.

    Nope, that’s not for me.

  • roger erickson December 15, 2010, 7:13 pm

    Pretend debt denominated in our own currency didn’t kill us in 1933, and won’t this time either. What could kill us is a thinking-deficit.

    ECCLES: “We [the Federal Reserve] created it.”

    PATMAN: “Out of what? ”

    ECCLES: “Out of the right to issue credit money. ”

    PATMAN: “And there is nothing behind it, is there, except our government’s credit?”

    ECCLES: “That is what our money system is.”

    – Federal Reserve Board Governor Marriner Eccles in testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Currency in 1941, during questioning by Congressman Wright Patman about how the Fed got the money to purchase two billion dollars worth of government bonds in 1933.

    http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=Federal+Reserve+Board+Governor+Marriner+Eccles+in+testimony+before+the+House+Committee+on+Banking+and+Currency+in+1941

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriner_Stoddard_Eccles

    ps: If we can direct our CB to arbitrarily create the currency to “buy” bonds, in order to quickly force innovation through outdated methodology, then it’s also immediately obvious that we don’t even need to “buy” the bonds, and may bypass them as well. If Treasury-bonds were irrelevant & obsolete in 1933, then there is no reason for the USA to be limiting our ability to think creatively in 2010 !!

    What really happens is that the House follows public initiative, and initiates projects, which it then sets spending budgets for, which the FED then “sells” bonds to account for.
    Post a gold std, public currency is ultimately backed by public initiative. A nation can not run out of initiative, except by the stupidity of political suicide, which might well happen!

  • Flore December 15, 2010, 2:45 pm

    that kills debt should have been the opposite… DEBT kills the country

  • Flore December 15, 2010, 2:44 pm

    It’s all about REAL intrest rates.. Gold will do great even if intrest rates go up,.. but still stay negative due to high inflation.. The US is in dire straits.. intrest rates up kills the recovery, kills the banks, kills the deficit, kills housing.. kills DEBT..

    Deflation is not an option, since debt would be even more difficult to roll over

    So, QE into oblivion.. and the final demise of a corrupt system..

    Gold.. get you some.. and hold it close to you…

  • mario cavolo December 15, 2010, 1:39 pm

    First of all, joy joy joy for that yellow flag…way overdue. Come on now baby give us a reasonable correction for heaven’s sake…

    On a separate more controversial note, I’ll go so far as to push it a step further regarding the thought I first put forth that the increasing interconnectedness of the world, which of course includes the financial aspect, is actually acting as protection, a moderator of, rather than an antagonist to “collapse”. To say it another way, I’ll put forth the reasonable idea that U.S. debt is not in fact at all a de-leveraged U.S. debt problem, but part of the integrated global system. Put in that light, the entire global economy will collapse or not, rather than just the U.S. or Euro block. Of course the dollar will not “collapse” nor the Euro!

    See the significance of the point? We are not going to collapse unless it is a genuinely orchestrated government policy decision to directly cause a hyperinflation. History shows us that is the only true way that a hyperinflation comes to a country, by a direct, specific gov’t decision typically related to currency values, not as a gradual consequence of open economic trends.

    So then, U.S. debt is not really a “U.S.” problem relative to everything else, it is an intricate, integrated part of the entire global financial system. Looked at as such, there is no reason to expect a “collapse”. I loath the overuse and abuse of the idea more and more each day.

    Governments are fully capable of a myriad of response decisions based on a rising current state of affairs. For example, as quickly as China has been tightening in the past year driving certain markets downward, they can just as easily (and you can be sure they will) make a brand new set of policy decisions as needed to drive sentiment and economics in the other direction as they might deem an appropriate response.

    I am far from buying the idea that Bernanke and friends have run out of ways to stimulate/respond to whatever situations rear up and present themselves; And so continue to believe they will somehow to continue maintain what the unaware world calls the financial system status quo by their myriad basket of available responses . The fact that we intelligent folks here “know better” is sort of, um, irrelevant.

    Cheers all, Mario

    • Robert December 15, 2010, 7:07 pm

      “I am far from buying the idea that Bernanke and friends have run out of ways to stimulate/respond to whatever situations rear up and present themselves”

      I, however, am not.

      If prices ramp up to the point that even the CPI starts going up, then the only policy action the Fed will have at that point will be to let rates rise, which will only increase the risk of a Bond default across town at the Treasury, as the US is forced to issue more debt in order to service the rising presssure of existing debt. Once the Bond Market smells that blood in the water, the US will be in the same position that Ireland is in right now…

      Has anyone noticed that with all the ECB and EuroZone shenanigans that Iceland is posting rising GDP numbers?

      Perhaps Iceland’s debt default was not quite as “end of the world” as the European Union would have had the world believe….

  • Chris December 15, 2010, 11:14 am

    Asians accumulating gold and silver via spot purchases?

    The contact out of London has updated King World News on the massive Asian buyers which have been accumulating both gold and silver. The London source stated, “Last week Asian buyers let the price come in to them. They were buying all day long, hitting all of the offers and they were not sending the price higher. As much as the orchestrators were hitting the bids, there were some smart buyers hitting the offers. The thinking was, I can pick up tonnage here, literally I can pick up tonnage here.”

    The London source continues:

    “On the surface this does not appear to have anything to do with the physical market. The spot buyers are indexing, and this is what no one is talking about. They are indexing the metal to the real physical even if they can’t get the physical metal at that moment.

    What would stop you from putting up a few billion dollars? This is what China is doing. You’re China, you were refused IMF gold, so you are going to quietly sell your treasuries, or swap your treasuries more likely for a spot financial transaction. What they are doing is buying spot, which is a currency transaction because you can’t get the metal. The physical market has now completely diverged from the paper market.

    The only way to fight it, and it can’t be done in the US, but it can over here in England (the Asians can), is to buy the foreign exchange transaction which is gold versus dollar, silver versus dollar. So essentially what you are doing is shorting the dollar versus gold, or shorting the dollar versus silver. The great thing about that is even if you can’t buy the physical, you are now indexed to the price of the metal. So even if you can’t get the physical at that time, you now have your hedge, you essentially have what you want.

    So if the price of gold and silver goes up, the price of your spot goes up. Even if the Comex defaults, spot will go up. Even when the market is taken down, it is constructive in terms of filling your physical orders. As they take the price down, you are happy to pay a premium to pick up the physical. The point of all of these purchases is to eventually convert them to physical gold, or physical silver, 100% of them. The Fed has to know this, they are not stupid.

    So the Asians are exercising patience in converting all of these spot purchases to physical?

    “If these guys converted all of their spot to physical, there would be a massive default today. No one in the US understands that, the Asians are laughing at these guys. It’s a way to unload billions and billions of dollars into the market. Looking at the futures market gives you a totally false impression of what is going on, this is going to totally blow up. Remember if you are China, your primary goal is to get out of trillions of dollars, that means purchasing hard assets such as gold and silver.”

    How sustainable is that?

    “It’s eventually going to blow because at some point these buyers will say, ‘I’m indexed, but I actually want to get all of this physical gold and silver now.’ When that happens, the game is over.”

    Well there you have it, the Asians are aggressively exchanging US dollars for gold and silver spot transactions, and eventually converting those spot transactions into physical gold and silver. For the Asian buyers this is an interesting game, it requires calm persistence, a scheme that is perfectly suited for a culture known for its patience and long-term strategy.

    Eric King

    KingWorldNews.com

    • Rich December 15, 2010, 11:35 pm

      Worth remembering there are two sides to every trade, and major debt default deflation could leave cheeze or egg stains on a lot of faces that plunged near the top…

  • Benjamin December 15, 2010, 10:05 am

    “But there are a score of big, sovereign buyers who will keep buying bullion no matter what the returns are on paper. Can you blame them?”

    Not to mention all the little buyers, the world over. If one needs proof that such a people exist, all they need to do is check out ebay and see how well gold and silver move.

    On another albeit similar note, I got a something in the mail the other day: an offer of CASH NOW, 20% more in fact, for (drum roll)…

    My unwanted gold and silver. Yeah. I have sooo many of these bars and coins that I just can’t stand the sight of anymore. I *don’t want them*, understand?! Just gimme a great big lollipop, so that there can be more of a sucker in the room than I am!

    It just doesn’t get any plainer that that, folks. Gold and silver are IN, and they’re here to stay!

    • Robert December 15, 2010, 6:28 pm

      Ebay, and also Craigslist.

      The really big thing about EBAY, Craigslist, and the retail market are that they show that the “official” rate of backwardation in both metals is analogous to the CPI- it is completely fictitious.

      How high will Gold and Silver go? Look inside the mind of an Asian investor for your answer.

      The primary attribute of these markets that portends higher prices is the “World Series of Poker” factor-

      Once upon a time, the WSOP was played by a cadre of about 1500 poker players from around the world, and the winner was typically one of a dozen or so big name players.

      Now, the popularity of the game has changed the entire essence of the game itself, as hundreds of thousands of players compete in regional qualifiers and the winner for the past 5 years in a row has been a new name, and a new first time winner.

      The original cadre is learning that what once was their exclusive little money making club, has exploded to the point that they are basically irrelevent, and incapable of making the same big, easy wins that they once did.

      The popularity of the Gold and Silver markets, especially among the Youtube/Ebay/Craigslist crowd, forecasts a similar fate for the cadre of traders that for decades have considered the Bullion Pits as an exclusive club…

      It’s a simple premise- when you are a levered seller of an asset that cannot be willed into existence, then you better stay on the right side of the trade when market volume starts ramping up, because it it volume, not price, that runs people over, and the popularity of these markets has only BARELY begun to ramp up in the mainstream.

      Yesterday’s little FT blurb about JPM reducing their short position in Silver was a ruse… a bluff, and the thing about a bluff is that it is always useless against the player that knows they have the winning hand.

      Think like an Asian…

    • Benjamin December 15, 2010, 8:17 pm

      Well, Robert, you know what they say… Run out of muscial chairs, just keep playing the music. Hopefuly, no one will discover!

  • FranSix December 15, 2010, 9:39 am

    My watch is on the discount rate, should it go into the negative, or negative rate repo’s come into vogue.

    Its so late in the season that people are liable to clap themselves on the back about having tamed deflationary tides by waving a voodoo stick.

  • Steve December 15, 2010, 5:45 am

    Interest rates are being depressed by the mother of all Bernanake inverse bubbles. OK, we cannot call it a bubble, but; Bernanke and crew have crammed about 13T at keeping interest rates low one way or another, and ramping up bond prices for the corporate world’s accounting practices. Let’s see. Someone bought a bond for 100 bucks at 4.68% interest, and no body will buy the bond until it reaches 50 bucks because there is no U.S.D., or they just don’t want to. Now the bond is paying 9.36%, and U.S.D. is up 50% because I can buy 2 bonds with a face of 100 for a 100 both paying 9.36%. Maybe this is too simple, and maybe my mind works more in the direction of right and wrong. I look forward to this thread to come to a better understanding.

    • Benjamin December 15, 2010, 10:50 am

      “Now the bond is paying 9.36%, and U.S.D. is up 50% because I can buy 2 bonds with a face of 100 for a 100 both paying 9.36%.”

      Hi, Steve

      I don’t know that I should step into this, but shouldn’t the above quote read…

      “Now the bond is paying 9.36% BECAUSE, the USD being up _100%_, I can now buy two bonds with the same 100” ?

      The way you wrote it, seems you’re double-counting, as well as miscalculating. ie The bond would virtually pay 9.36% because the same $100 would now be twice the buying power… Not two bonds paying 9.36%, from 1.5 times the buying power. Either that, or they’re paying (virtually) 7.02% from a 50% rise in USD.

    • Steve December 15, 2010, 7:27 pm

      Just wanted to get the information exchange going Benjamin.

  • TC December 15, 2010, 4:09 am

    If we buy into the deflationary theme don’t rates continue to fall?
    Are not rising rates a sign of inflation and higher inflation expectations?

    • Rick Ackerman December 15, 2010, 9:13 am

      Deflation’s chief symptom is an increase in the real burden of debt. That’s about all you need to know about it.

    • Rich December 15, 2010, 11:28 pm

      Rising interest rates can also be a sign of increasing insolvency risk caused by debt default deflation…

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_deflation

  • Cameroni December 15, 2010, 4:09 am

    I think it is pretty fair to say that the announcement from Moody’s that it might downgrade US debt from its current triple Aaa status should Congress approve the tax bill was a trigger. Now I am worried. Moody’s and the other big bond raters have been sending out warning signals for months an it is an open question as to whether they will follow through on their threat. You will want to keep a very close eye on the vote outcome because there is the whiff of carnage in the air.

    Could a downgrade from stable to negative be the force that ultimately drives the US Dollar over the edge?

    • Rich December 15, 2010, 11:30 pm

      Dollar was up 1.06% today suggesting a flight out of bonds into cash and maybe equities tomorrow, WEB’s Greenback Effect Thesis…