Some good
technicians and a few world-of-finance celebrities have been talking bullish talk on the dollar (although I’d probably have to replay the Jimmy Rogers tape a few more times before I’m certain of where he stands). Anyway, this tout is to reiterate my conviction, based solely on Hidden Pivot dynamics, that the dollar is going nowhere — or at least, not significantly higher — for the foreseeable future. To underscore the point, it recently spent three full days in distribution below a not-very-intimidating peak at 76.46 notched on St. Patrick’s Day. That pretty much says it all, for now. Yes, there is always the possibility of some black swan event panicking the world’s hot money into the misconceived “safety” of the U.S. dollar. But if the threatened ruination of Japan and the conflagration in the Middle East are not the black swan, then it’s pointless trying to imagine what would be. Putting the foregoing aside, if DXY can close for two days above the 76.15 midpoint of the pattern shown, we should infer it’s on its way to at least 76.63 over the near term.
