The Future Flops in Hands of ‘Experts’

[So many systems are failing – financial, healthcare, education and government, to name a few of the biggies – that one might think it had all been planned that way by the “experts” who hold sway over our lives.  In the essay below, a friend, V.R., a management consultant, takes note of some disturbing signs that things are likely to get worse before they get better. RA]

Remember the bumper sticker “If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention”?  I propose that attention itself is an investment, and like all investments, requires vigilance in execution and bypassing the “noise,” The marketing pitch of “New and Improved” slowly engulfed our entire culture. It conditioned (i.e., brainwashed) everyone to believe more in what’s new than what has worked. We are, in effect, addicted to newness as a panacea, having little memory of what worked before. With U.S. education falling to about 30th in the world, we have a population that knows little and whose analytical reasoning ability is as shallow as the latest newscast.  This spells opportunity for some.  For example: Through the promotion of pharmaceutical medicines by “captains of industry” who had a vested interest in replacing what still works for a minority of believers, the medical world brushed aside the accumulated knowledge of natural remedies to sell patented pharmaceutical wonders.

Also sidelined was the “prevention” idea, such as exercise, and only eating food not technologically tampered with.  The population has been conditioned to believe in drugs, despite glaring evidence to the contrary that is easily found (and discounted).  In this case “they” are the doctors who all attended medical schools funded primarily by big pharma, so what else could doctors know?  Vioxx, an FDA approved drug, was on the  market till 50,000 people died from it and Merck sold $2.5B of it .  The quiet media, which depend on revenues from drug ads, made so little mention of it that if you’d asked someone if they’d heard of an FDA-approved arthritis drug that killed as many Americans with heart attacks as the Vietnam war in half the time, they would have shaken their heads and said, “Huh?”

Alvin Toffler’s 1970’s book Future Shock explained  “… the accelerated rate of technological and social change leaving people disconnected and suffering from shattering stress and disorientation”.  Too much change at once destabilizes any system.  There is also the “Kansas City Shuffle,” a song by jazz pianist Bennie Moten about an advanced form of confidence game employing misdirection, subterfuge, and playing on the mark’s “arrogant ignorance.” An excessive change rate creates an information overload that distracts the marks.  Look at how much information and IT tools the banks had to operate with to “manage” things; then look at the result. The subsequent failure of capitalism to find sufficient working capital within capitalism itself has been overlooked.

$1 Billion Per Word

The banks wrote a 700-word document detailing their plight to a President who gave them $1 billion per word, with no congressional oversight.  Capitalism had to be saved by a loan from the very “democracy” that had no say in the matter.  Make sense?  Of course not.   In traditional terms, that’s called theft. That’s how changing the rules that worked, like keeping banking and insurance separate, resulted in the failure of our over-complex and overly interconnected systems. With that in mind, can we say that a future-shocked nation acquiesced to this, as well as it does to the food business takeover by Monsanto and the “Just say yes to drugs” pharmaceutical business?  Mass helplessness has ensued due to information and systemic change overload, leaving only a sinking feeling that we are all along for the ride as this vehicle of newness crashes into the inevitable wall.

Our current “run-by-experts” world is as hard to ignore as a car crash in slow motion.  Observing a crash doesn’t stop it, but observing one’s own surroundings and taking evasive action is one’s first priority as a pedestrian at the intersection of the crash.  Being nimble and focused on one’s own safety by controlling what you can is the winning strategy.  In trading, too much attention to “news” and even to trends is unwise, as reality’s outcome is subject to more elements than can be accounted for.  Hence, a mechanical trading system that ignores the overload of wordy predictions and data, capitalizing on chart patterns, is arguably the wiser strategy for ensuring one’s success.  Reduce your own future shock on purpose, to sidestep being the mark in the “Kansas City shuffle” of global corporatism.

(If you’d like to have these commentaries delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)

  • Mercurious March 9, 2012, 8:17 am

    Two observations: I am not a chartist but I fail to see how it could be anything other than just about the only tool left in the box that has a prayer of working in the short to intermediate term. When all metrics are fudged, trends hedonically adjusted to dust, benchmarks moved, results goal-seeked…exactly what fundamentals are left to rely on?

    To me, the art for an individual chart trader would be to outflank the algos and black boxes by understanding where the anticipated turning points would be and getting there first. There is always the bolt-from-the-blue to contend with, but fundamentals wouldn’t help you cope with that any better anyway. Humans still can outwit a black box that is too clever by half, IMHO.

    The second point has even more significance. This essay points at the underlying problem; it’s not rot in the system, it’s the trance state of the observers. Literally a trance state. We have entered the realm of the boxer who still stands but can’t even put his gloves up to protect himself from the bloody pummeling he’s taking. There is no outrage so great that our citizens finally storm the walls. No debt too obscene, no action too unconstitutional, no lie too blatant to rouse us. Nothing. We’re standing but unable to do a damn thing about the beating we’re taking, it seems.

    But maybe not. Occasionally, it is just the indignity of getting his ass kicked so publicly and so shamelessly that wakes the boxer from his trance and he fights back, sometimes viciously, like a madman. Maybe the same thing will happen for us. We can’t stand here all day just bleeding, that’s for sure.

  • Robert March 8, 2012, 9:08 pm

    Wierd… I was actually doing some supplementary reading on the Tower of Babel yesterday evening as I contemplated whether a passive, benevolent and all-loving “God” would deliberately induce the confusion of tongues with full foreknowledge of the massive human cultural confict/wars, and wasteful death that would result (since they have resulted, we must assume that an omnipotent God would be fully aware of what the consequences would be of the “plan” that He/They were putting into action)… and then here I am on this page today looking at the same image… It’s even freakier than Google’s magical adsense. 🙂

    A thoroughly enjoyable article JR… mostly summed up by the law of unintended consequences.

    Humans consistently fail to forecast the potentially unpleasant after-effects of the rapid knee-jerk decisions they make, but in the end, all chaotic systems find periodic quiescence before entropy re-enters and does its nefarious deed.

    Our current “run by experts” system is based on a set of rules and assumptions formed over decades. Rules and assumptions that the “experts” themselves are now violating with wild and reckless abandon… How can this not be entropic ?

    • V.R. March 8, 2012, 10:59 pm

      Thanks Robert. I wish I could have written longer about the predictable cycles of complexity and simplicity, as that is parallel to the tower of babel paradigm. We’re living in a time of unparalled complexity and overly complex systems crash. That is the essence of ‘Future Shock’ as well… unmanaged complexity is unsustainable. The most glaring example is the Fall of Capitalism – how capitalism’s systems of complex trading and lending instruments, simply ran out of the core capital they all depend on. Funny that history is not remembering it that super simple way. Without the bailout, capitalism would have take the whold world’s financial system out and the world with it. The few execptions? The Amish people in Penn., KY, OH, who gave up technology in the 1850’s, are the only identifiable group which is still solvent and not in debt. There’s a rear-view mirror view worth noting. Simpler lasts longer.

    • V.R. March 8, 2012, 11:18 pm

      I have to add my kudos to ‘entropy doing its nefarious deed’. Entropy is life’s way of forcing vigilance if you want to stay above its effects, and what side of entropy you’re on does matter in the trades of life and the markets. Thanks again.

  • rick j March 8, 2012, 4:06 pm

    Totally right and succinct. Enjoyed it.

  • Mark Uzick March 8, 2012, 11:00 am

    I have to agree, for a change, with both Cam and Benjamin on this one: The essay was enjoyable to read, as it addressed some of my own pet peeves, but I found the simplistic one sided approach to these issues disturbing.

    • V.R. March 8, 2012, 10:54 pm

      Well its not a suggestion to ignore everything, but to not get lost in argumentation over which candidate will do anything for ‘the rest of us’. Remember that news stories are typically written around what already happened, and if the market goes down or up, its because an even number of buys and sells occurred, so everyone has a different view of what an opportunity is, regardless of the events. They are mostly chartists who are trading, and are working in different timeframes, so your up is their down, so to speak.

  • Benjamin March 8, 2012, 8:59 am

    Christians vs Pagans
    Democrat vs Republican
    Fallacy of Tradition vs Fallacy of Technology

    The truth doesn’t lie anywhere in between. Truth is the first casualty of war.

  • Cam Fitzgerald March 8, 2012, 8:28 am

    “Hence, a mechanical trading system that ignores the overload of wordy predictions and data, capitalizing on chart patterns, is arguably the wiser strategy for ensuring one’s success” ~~VR
    ————————————
    I gather that was the conclusion and the point of the essay. Nice try VR. I am not buying it though. Charting is just an additional tool to add to the arsenal we already use to read the markets. Even amongst charting a great variety exists. An over reliance there is just as poor a choice as is a dependence on old school methods.

    You still have to think for yourself.

    • Rick Ackerman March 8, 2012, 8:06 pm

      Cam, “nice try” is how I regard your by now gratuitous attempts to impugn technical analysis. Before you embarrass yourself any further in this forum, I’ll suggest yet again that you subscribe to Rick’s Picks, so that you’ll be better able to judge the accuracy and value of technical forecasts.

      As far as I’m concerned, it is “fundamentalists” who are charlatans and hacks. With Buffett as the rare exception, the very best Wall Street analyst’s predictions are rubbish compared to those of even a mediocre chartist.

    • redwilldanaher March 8, 2012, 8:49 pm

      I’ll go further than Rick. I have no respect for Buffet. He’s been exposed as a pompous ass by none other than himself on multiple occasions. He’s just another member of the “club” that works his homespun “unky warren” schtick. He sickens me when I hear him interviewed by his camp follower of choice Becky Quick or whatever her fake media name happens to be.

      As far as fundamentalists, how is there any defense of their timing? Buy when things are cheap and they keep getting cheaper so what now? Buy more and more and more? Wall St.’s predictions and especially those of the fundamentalists are a joke. Their one-sided bias has been documented thousands of times with statistics to back it up. Everyone in the business knows that those clowns are salesman and that Wall St. looks at things they hawk as products and not investments. I’d love to see where all the perma-bulls would be if it weren’t for a centrally planned stock market, the breaking of countless laws, and the disdain of actual free markets/the invisible hand by TPTB.

    • Robert March 8, 2012, 9:43 pm

      I think you are all right to an extent.

      Technical analysis is based on interpretation of chart patterns and the underlying “behaviors” that they infer, but trading based on technical analysis is a PROFESSION, not an OCCUPATION.

      Ergo, the money earning performance of a talented chart based trader may indeed obliterate the performance of a fundamental market analyst; just as we would expect the performance of a brain surgeon to be superior to a General Practicioner when the medical topic is removing a tumor from the temporal lobe.

      Likewise- asking the surgeon down the street if your kid’s fever means they should be operated on, don’t be surprised when/if they say “yes, absolutely”…

      Bickering about the “better process” is pointless. The right tool in the hands of someone with the talent to use them generates successful outcomes.

      Just because the guy wears a light blue shirt with his name in an oval and has a big red Snap-On rollaway toolchest does not mean he is an expert at fixing your car.

      In all professions, personal/individual talent as an INPUT is forever unquantifiable – only the results/output can be substantiated as a product of the superior talent of the individual.

      Every good Surgeon knows that access to the correct tools, and the understanding of how to use them technically , STILL does not make great surgeons.

    • V.R. March 8, 2012, 10:51 pm

      Well since 70% of trading, by some estimates, is done by computer algorithms reading charts and specialized to a particular vehicle, it adds to the ‘pure chartists’ view that nothing else matters. To a degree, sailing by just reading the wind and not the currents can be risky. Thanks for your comments.

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 9, 2012, 4:13 am

      I have never impugned technical analysis Rick. I have only argued that it is not something I would rely upon entirely without also giving consideration to the variety of other indicators that are helpful to me in understanding markets and direction.

      You have my apologies if those remarks offended because that was never my intention. I have certainly not ever used language suggesting technicals were the work of “charlatans or hacks”. Neither have I ever called your work “rubbish”.

      On the contrary, I have often complimented your good calls and can say without reservation some have been more than impressive. Please check the record. Anyway, I was responding to VR’s article, not sideswiping you indirectly so there was not any personal slight involved. Not on purpose anyway.

      Maybe I am not the only one here who is a little thin-skinned.

      &&&&&&&

      Your last post here had characterized my recent, bearish “180” on stocks as untimely and perhaps even valueless because it came after the market closed on Monday. Then, as now, I would suggest that you subscribe to my daily forecasts before you presume to judge their worth to subscribers. RA

    • Cam Fitzgerald March 9, 2012, 8:04 am

      Must be a full moon or something.

  • mike March 8, 2012, 7:51 am

    global “fascist” corporatism.

  • Tom Jefferson March 8, 2012, 5:16 am

    Well done.

  • John Jay March 8, 2012, 4:56 am

    Nice rant, V.R.
    It’s all too, too true.
    However we might as well face the hard fact of life.
    Those of us intelligent enough to understand all that are just like the nerds sitting on the sofa at the frat party.
    We watch while brother Bluto is throwing empty beer kegs through the windows and brother D-Day is riding his Harley up the stairs to the second floor!
    The party will roll on until the beer runs out or the cops show up!

    • V.R. March 8, 2012, 10:49 pm

      In a way we’re all complicit… sitting on the couch… picking out the next toy to buy during the easy money era, but no use crying over our own spilt milk either, just better to ignore the noise and prepare ourselves as best as possible.