April 2012

Suh-prize, suh-prize. Someone posting in the forum said Apple was up $40 in after-hours trading, although I cannot confirm it at the moment using my deaf-dumb-blind-and-recalcitrant Tradestation application. If true, it would have no bearing on today's wait-and-see tout for the stock.  Technically speaking, the rally could augur another six weeks of false Spring for U.S. stocks.

Although I still expect the May contract to carve out a potentially important low at 29.940, the 30.265 'D' target of the lesser pattern shown in the chart promises to reward bottom-fishers as well. Camouflage is suggested using a 5-minute chart or less, and you should start looking for the turn anywhere below 30.285.  Risk no more than $70 theoretical per contract on entry. I will establish a tracking position for your further guidance if at least two traders acting on my advice report fills in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (11:45 a.m. EDT): Silver has gotten obliterated today in the space of just 15 minutes, crushing the 30.265 pivot so that no camouflage entry was possible (or desirable).  The 29.940 pivot below it was probably inevitable anyway, so that's where you should look for an actual bottom. I can't confirm it at the moment, but it seems likely the hysterics are related to some statement that our factually challenged Fed chairman has uttered before some panel.

Close, but no cigar. Apple relapsed beneath Monday's lows as feared, but the move was neither bullish nor bearish because the new bottom at 555.00 only succeeded in bringing the stock even closer to my original correction target at 555.29. Camouflageurs could have staked out a long position at 562.74 (see chart), but because I hadn't suggested it, I won't be establishing a tracking position. A strong rally in the days ahead would get Apple out of the danger zone, but if my Hidden Pivot target contains sellers for only a few days, that would have very bearish implications.

An amusing coincidence: I was posting to the Rick’s Picks forum a moment ago about how exchange trading has come to resemble a sleazy carnival operation, and lo, the E-Mini S&Ps have shot up six points in mere seconds. This was an after-hours move – the best time to stage these heists, since there is little legitimate buying or selling to get in the way of the perpetrators. I don’t wish to insult carny operators by comparing them to exchange dealers and market makers, by the way, since the guys and gals who work the midway at least come face to face with the rubes they are ripping off.  Not in the world of electronic trading, though.  The pros who are doing the fleecing operate under a veil of secrecy that can be lifted only by securities regulators or the FBI. The forum thread concered trading against phantom bids and offers that seem to be there only when you don’t need them.  Café Americain’s Jesse had posted the following at his own blog: “I am not trading nearly as frequently or aggressively as in the past because a) I am getting older b) these markets are almost ridiculous. It’s like playing cards with the little girls. If I put in an order for a few thousand shares, the liquidity from a large offered set of multiple positions evaporates instantly and I close on maybe 100 shares. If I offer to buy above market but below ask I get ten ‘friends’ appearing instantly along with my bid.” Phantom Markets Just so. This has been our experience as well, mainly in the equity option markets. On a Level 2 trading screen, one might see 5000-up bids and offers for call options that rarely trade. So who would be offering thousands of them,

Yesterday Rick appeared on The Financial Survival Network. The audio from the appearance is available at this link. The following is a transcript of the show. Kerry Lutz: 1490 WGCH. This is Kerry Lutz. You’re listening to the Financial Survival Network. We have a roundtable today with Rick Ackerman of rickackerman.com, and we’ve got Charles Hugh Smith, who is oftwominds.com. We’re going to talk about investing, retirement funds, what you do to protect yourself against potential economic disruptions, and how you keep what little savings you might have left safe from the taxman and from potential chaotic developments in the economy. Hey Charles. Welcome to the Financial Survival Network. Charles Hugh Smith: Hi Kerry. Thanks for having me today. Kerry: Great to have you back. Great to have you back too, Rick. Rick Ackerman: Thank you Kerry. I want to say, I’ve been a fan of Charles for a long time. I want to thank you for arranging this panel discussion. I’ve always wanted to meet him. Kerry: Hey well, one day, God willing, you’ll get tom eet in person one on one. But until then, this is about the next best thing. Getting into it, Rick, this tax system is insane. We’ve got the congressional tax collectors, their designees, just looking desperate for money to keep this thing propped up. A day doesn’t go by where you hear them talking about how to effectively confiscate your IRA, your 401(k), to tax private pensions, and the like, so that they could basically prop up social security. What do you think you should do to avoid these actions from happening and damaging you? Rick: Well, Charles had a great idea. He’s, I guess you can say, running with it. The idea is to Enron Wall Street and invest local. I looked

We are tracking the shares of Apple closely, since the vigor of its bounce from within a figurative hair of a 555.29 Hidden Pivot target that was recently achieved can tell us whether the stock market as a whole might be rolling over.  Check out the chart accompanying today's AAPL tout for further, precise details.

Our Mother of All Bellwethers has bounced from within a figurative hair of a 555.29 correction target that had been two weeks in coming. If the rebound dies quickly -- say, within a day or two -- and Apple relapses below the recent bottom, that would be quite bearish, since Hidden Pivot D's that have taken that long to achieve are not, as I sometimes say, chopped liver. But the bull will remain suspect unless the stock impulses higher within the same span of time, surpassing two peaks that lie, respectively, at 594.62 and 615.36 (see chart).

A downside target at 29.940 first broached here nearly three weeks ago remains my minimum downside objective. Tightly stopped bottom-fishing will be warranted there, but camouflage is the preferred way to go. A conservative approach would use a chart of 5-minute degree or less to find an uptrending ABC from within 2 cents of that price. Keep in mind that theoretical risk should be held to $70 per contract or less. Rather be a trader than a lurker? Click here to learn how.

For want of an alternative point of interest, technically speaking, we turn once again to a familiar trendline that will make it possible to tune out this vehicle's tiresome dirge. Set a screen alert for 1668.10, the price at which a rally on Tuesday would intercept the approximate midpoint of the downsloping line. Camouflage longs would be warranted on a breakout, but it seems just as likely that the line will contain the next rally. If bears wax nasty, we'd be looking at downside over the near term to as low as 1594.70 (60-minute, A=1699.60 on 3/27). _______ UPDATE (April 24, 8:25 p.m. EDT): Our all-purpose trendline comes in today at around 1666.50 mid-day. One other potential tripwire we might monitor is 1657.80, the midpoint resistance of the big pattern begun from 1613.00 on 4/4. A close above it would give Gold a fighting chance to finish the week on an upswing. The 'D' target of this pattern is 1691.90.