April 2012

Without intending it, Rick’s Picks may have become an oasis for gold and silver bulls who are at the point of despair over the mining sector's relentless, and presumably unjust, plunge. We have good news for you:  Using technical tools to tweak your timing and risk management, it’s possible to buy “crap” stocks all the way down without getting hurt if you’re early. We use the word “crap” ironically, of course, since it is only when stocks have been beaten down as badly as those in the mining sector that they become screaming bargains. And that pretty much sums up the situation as far as we’re concerned. Not that the blighters who have been doing the selling couldn’t bludgeon bullion shares even lower before they relent. In the meantime, wouldn’t it be lovely to take all that stock from their undeserving hands -- and to do so without penalty or punishment if we are premature? On the subject of mining-sector “crap,” a perfect example is the execrated and abhorred GDXJ, an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the shares of junior gold mining companies.  Although it has an ardent following among Rick’s Picks subscribers, GDXJ has unfortunately proven treacherous to the financial health of long-term investors. Some of them may have thought GDXJ looked like a great bargain a couple of months ago when it was trading for around $30 a share, down from a high of $43 in 2011. We told subscribers to hold off on buying, however, warning that the stock could eventually fall to $20 or even lower. That is still a possibility. Nonetheless, to avoid missing a possible long-term bottom, we started nibbling at 23.93, a “Hidden Pivot” target first advertised in the newsletter when GDXJ was still above $26.  The buy at 23.93 proved timely

Apple shares were trading more than $30 higher when I put out a correction target at 555.29.  That target was very closely approached this morning when a $20 dive hit a so-far low of 556.62.  The fact that the stock has impulsed bullishly on the lesser charts without having quite achieved the target is prospectively bullish (albeit only mildly so) and suggests that a potentially important low is in.  If so, that would be true for the market as a whole. Speculation aside, we'll continue to monitor Apple's vital signs very closely so that neither it nor Mr. Market has a snowball's chance in hell of fooling us, not even for a day.

As promised, this past Friday afternoon we selected the first winner of our weekly Rick's Picks Quarterly Subscription giveaway ($106 value). The first winner, Steve from the University of Arizona, was randomly chosen from the the member roster of our free daily newsletter. He will have full access to all of Rick's subscriber-only forecasts as well as our chat room for the next 90 days. Anyone may enter, including existing paid Rick's Picks subscribers, who will have their paid subscription extended for 90 days if they win. If you already receive our daily newsletter, you're already entered. Have you entered?

Compelling opportunities for night owls were in scant supply Sunday evening, but I've nonetheless highlighted an interesting possibility in June Gold if it should dip lower overnight.  My Silver tout is unchanged, since any attention that an update might command would probably be wasted.

The turgid, untradable slop that obtained for most of Friday was continuing Sunday night, although that could change with a feint down to 1627.70. Pivoteers may want to notice the fetching, single-bar coordinates of the pattern shown, yielding a very tradable 'D' target at 1627.70 (that would likely be misperceived as a breakdown by our differently abled competitors). Camouflage entry is preferable as always, but you can use at 1627.80 bid and a four-tick stop-loss in a pinch.

The futures were showing signs of weakness Sunday night, falling beneath a midpoint support at 1372.75 that's tied to a 'D' target at 1362.25 (60m, A=1386.50 on 4/19 at 11 a.m. EDT). If the opportunity should arise, you can bottom-fish that last number with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks(!), or via camouflage if you are so equipped. Volume was exceedingly light, so be prepared if DaSleazeballs decide to manipulate this vehicle beyond the usual bounds of normalcy.  As of around 10:46 p.m. EDT, the first place the short-term picture (i.e., two-minute chart) would turn bullish would be at 1375.75.  Indeed, a 'b-c' pullback from just above that number could provide an excellent opportunity for camouflageurs to get long. _______ UPDATE (11:47 a..m. EDT): The futures fell steadily overnight, crushing the 1357.75 Hidden Pivot midpoint support of an even larger, bearish pattern than the one noted above.  This implies more weakness to its 'D' sibling, at least: 1324.75.  Rather be a trader instead of a lurker! Click here to learn how.

A winter-less winter has given way to the most pleasant spring weather imaginable here in Boulder, Colorado.  A cloudless day in the low 70s brought the crowds out in droves on Pearl Street Mall Sunday afternoon. Boulder has been in a precipitation drought for as long as I can remember, and yet there have been no water restrictions since I moved here in 1999. That’s because there has been ample snowfall on the mountains immediately west to provide sufficient runoff for all purposes, including recreation. White-water rafting is extremely popular hereabouts, and in years such as 2010-11, when snowpack was at near-record levels, it was a case of too much white water, at least for rafting novices. This year’s snowfall was below normal, however, and so most of the ski resorts had to make do with artificial snow.  It takes about 30 inches mid-mountain to keep the crowds coming, but the resorts have become so good at making the stuff that, in the worst year for skiing anyone can remember, total skier visits in 2011-12 appear to have been down only 15-20 percent. That’s a nasty hit for the resorts, to be sure, but it will be easily recouped next year if snowfall is normal. I feel blessed to live here. Coming from one of the greatest cities of them all, San Francisco, and having grown up on a island resort in New Jersey -- I had my doubts initially that I would grow to like land-locked Boulder as much as I do. Now, I can even envision settling down here, getting immersed in the local scene, and contributing what I can to make it a better place.  My dream is to produce plays on a small scale, and to help Boulder reach the “critical mass” needed to attract the

On this weekend's Korelin Economic Report, Rick and Al Korelin discussed the uses and strengths of technical analysis. The audio for this interview can be heard here. The transcript is shown below. Al Korelin: Hey, welcome in. You’re listening to a weekend special on the Korelin Economics Report. I’m Al Korelin. I appreciate you joining me. I’ve got my buddy Rick Ackerman on the line right now. Rick and I are talking about technical analysis versus fundamental analysis. We’ve had an ongoing dialogue on this particular issue over the past few weeks with you folks out there. I wanted to get Rick to weigh in on this thing, because he is truly one of the experts, as is Trader Rog. But Rick has been doing this for a long, long time. He’s made his living using technical analysis. He’s done quite well so far. My first question, Rick, would be this. Number one, let’s take as an example the week to a few months coming up here. Now, I would say from a fundamental standpoint, the potential for a significant appreciation in the price of gold and silver is very, very high. That’s from a fundamental standpoint. Why do I say that? Well, I say it because number one, Europe is literally falling apart. The odds are - in my opinion, based on fundamentals - I would say that Europe is probably going to be in worse and worse and worse shape, and possibly, very possibly, the Union, the Euro, et cetera, may collapse. That would have a huge impact on an upward movement in the price of gold and silver. Now, fundamentals tell me the same thing is true in the United States. That’s why I remain bullish on gold and silver. How does technical analysis, Rick, relate to

On an funereally slow Friday, we found interesting things to observe, including ‘technicals’ for Treasurys and a way to trade them that morning from the long side. The timely set-up we looked at did not trigger during the session, but we observed it in sufficient detail that it will be worth your while to ponder the camouflage aspects of the trade. The E-Mini S&Ps were up the equivalent of nearly 90 Dow points, but there were sound technical reasons for inferring they would make little further headway that day.